How is it already Week 10? I don’t know either but let’s talk about it.
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Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite
Buffalo Bills (-11; -525) at New York Jets (+385)
Betting trends:
Bills 2021 road record: 2-2
Bills 2021 road record when favored: 1-2
Bills 2021 ATS record: 4-3-1
Bills 2021 ATS record when favored: 3-3-1
Jets 2021 home record: 2-1
Jets 2021 home record as underdogs: 2-1
Jets 2021 ATS record: 2-6
Jets 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 2-6
A lot to unwrap for this game, as the Bills are the biggest favorites on the slate for the third week in a row. The Bills are 1-1 both straight up and ATS in those games, beating and covering against the Dolphins and losing to the Jaguars. This game has also seen quite a bit of line movement as I write this Thursday morning. The Bills opened as -13 favorite but are currently down to -11. The total has stayed relatively the same, which is currently at 47.5. The Bills are only 3-5 hitting the over while the Jets are at 5-3. The Jets are allowing an average of 31.4 points per game, the highest in the league.
This should be viewed as a big bounce back spot for the Bills, who were straight up embarrassed by the now two win Jaguars team. They somehow held the Bills to just six points and didn’t allow Josh Allen ($7,900) to throw or rush in a touchdown for the first time this season. The Jags did get a lot of pressure on Allen, who was without two starting offensive lineman. That allowed Allen under pressure on 39% of his dropbacks and saw him sacked four times while completing just 46.7% of his pass attempts. The Jets do have a decent pass rush to combat Allen but the Bills are looking to get back to full health this week. When Allen is kept clean, he’s been stellar with a 74.3% completion (80.6% adjusted) 7.1 YPA and nine of the 17 touchdowns he’s thrown.
Mike White ($5,100) is the second-cheapest QB on the DFS board and will draw the start in this game. He was off to another strong start against the Colts before being forced out with a forearm injury. White completed 7/11 pass attempts for 95 yards and a touchdown. Of course, we all know he carved up the Bengals for 405 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 8. That said, the Bills have limited opposing quarterbacks more than anyone. They’re averaging just 189 passing yards and only FIVE passing touchdowns in total. Yup, only Patrick Mahomes, Taylor Heinicke and Ben Roethlisberger have thrown touchdowns against this team. Mahomes’ 272 passing yards was the most by any quarterback this season with Ryan Tannehill a distant second at 216. I wouldn’t want to be against a Bills team that will no doubt be looking to get back in the win column in a suddenly open AFC East division.
Other notable favorites: Jacksonville Jaguars (+360) at Indianapolis Colts (-10; -490)
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Atlanta Falcons (+300) at Dallas Cowboys (-8; -400) Over/Under: 54.5
Betting trends:
Falcons 2021 road record: 3-1
Falcons 2021 road record as underdogs: 2-1
Falcons 2021 Over/Under record: 5-3
Falcons 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 3-1
Cowboys 2021 home record: 3-1
Cowboys 2021 home record as favorites: 3-1
Cowboys 2021 Over/Under record: 5-3
Cowboys 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 4-1
The Cowboys shocking 30-16 loss to the Broncos ended their perfect ATS record in Week 9. Now they’ll look to get back on track in the highest projected total on DraftKings Sportsbook at 54.5. This is one of three games with a total in the 50’s after last week saw only one. This total originally opened at 52 and has been as high as 55 Tuesday afternoon. The Cowboys are ranked 3rd in average points scored at 30.1 while the Falcons fall way down the list at 21st with 22 points per game. As of Thursday, 77% of the handle and 44% of the bets were on the over. The massive amount of handle and less than 50% of the bets indicates the large dollar bets are on the over.
I do like the over in this game, even at 54.5. The Cowboys are one of the fastest paced teams in the league, running an average of 68.1 plays per game (Ravens rank 1st with 70). The Falcons are throwing the ball 73% of the time when down by at least a touchdown, which is one of the highest rates in the league. Both teams have struggled to defend against the pass, which bodes well for both teams. Specifically, both CeeDee Lamb ($7,000) and Amari Cooper ($6,200) draw strong matchups in coverage. Don’t forget about Kyle Pitts ($5,800), who has been quiet over the past two weeks but still has 13 targets in that span. Two teams that throw to their tight ends often, the Buccaneers and Eagles, combined for 14 receptions on 19 targets for 209 yards and three touchdowns.
Other notable total: Minnesota Vikings (+150) at Los Angeles Chargers (-3; -170) O/U 53.
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NFL Week 10 Betting Splits
These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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NFL Betting Trends
This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.
Teams Against the Spread:
Best Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 5.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 1.3 |
| New England Patriots | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 3.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 2.4 |
Worst Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 | -7.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | -2.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 6-10 | -0.6 |
| New York Jets | 6-10 | -4.3 |
| New York Giants | 6-10 | -2.5 |
Teams Over/Under Records:
Best Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| New York Jets | 10-6 | 4.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 1.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8-7-1 | -0.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | -1.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-8 | 0.4 |
Worst Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | -3.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-10-1 | -3.3 |
| New York Giants | 5-10-1 | -4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | -2.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-10 | -2.8 |
Target Report
Target Report
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | MIN | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | KC | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | PIT | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | HOU | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | LAR | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | TB | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | CIN | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | NE | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | PIT | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | CIN | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team, $7,600 — Coming into this season, the strength of the WFT was going to be their defense. It’s been anything but that this season. Now, they’ll have to deal with a well rested Brady, who is fresh off a 375 passing yard, four touchdown performance against the Saints in Week 8. Brady has hit 4x value in five of his eight games this season, a mark he has a very realistic chance of doing this week. In fact, the WFT is allowing an average of 26.8 DKFP to opposing quarterbacks, which is the highest in the league. The 20 passing touchdowns allowed is the second-most while the four interceptions to their credit is one of the lowest. The Bucs simply don’t run the ball either, doing so on 33.1% of their plays. This has seen Brady throwing the ball no less than 36 times in each game. It would be an utter shock to me if he doesn’t have another huge performance in Week 10.
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team, $7,100 — I’m under the impression that Antonio Brown ($6,100) will be missing his third game in a row this week. If that’s the case, the ball has been going to Godwin a lot more in his absence. On the season, Godwin is averaging 20.4% of the overall team targets. In the three games Brown has missed this season, that number jumps up to 23.5% but more specifically, 28.7% these last two games. Godwin also tops the team in red zone targets with 16 total, including three in the last two games. In coverage, he draws one of the most favorable matchups on the slate against Landon Collins. When targeted against, Collins has allowed a 74.3% reception rate (26 receptions, 35 targets) for an average of 12.5 YPR and three touchdowns against.
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