The Senators take on a Kings team who is on the tail end of a long Eastern Canada road trip. The Sens are small home underdogs and come in having lost five straight. Ottawa has played some tough teams of late and played well their last time out, getting better goaltending from Matt Murray in a 3-2 loss to the Bruins. L.A.’s defensive injuries and poor special teams will catch up to them eventually. Taking the Senators at decent odds looks like a solid play.
The Jets are coming off a close loss to their conference rivals, the Blues, but head into this game healthier than they’ve been for a while. San Jose is coming off a shocking win vs. the Flames a couple nights ago when they were massive underdogs, but making it two in a row may prove tough against a Jets team who is nearly back at full strength. Connor Hellebuyck is a massive edge in net for Winnipeg and stopped 31 of 33 shots his last time out. The Jets could roll here against a Sharks team who has done a lot of traveling of late.
Top Line Stack
JT Compher ($5,400) — Mikko Rantanen ($8,100) — Gabriel Landeskog ($7,400)
The Avalanche will be without their top center tonight as Nathan MacKinnon is again set to miss time with a lower body injury. For daily fantasy purposes, that means we’ll be getting good value in a stack of their top line against a weak opponent. JT Compher has stepped up nicely to begin the season for the Avalanche and heads into this game averaging just under a point per game and around 3.0 blocked shots + shots on goal per game.
His usage on the top line means we get great correlation, as he’ll be paired with two elite wingers in Rantanen and Landeskog at both even strength and on the power play. Rantanen returned from injury in the Avs last game and promptly played over 20 minutes while landing six shots on net. Rantanen leads all wingers on this slate in long-term CorsiFor Rating and looks undervalued considering the opponent.
The Canucks allow a lot of scoring chances at even strength (10th most in the league this year) and rank third to last in penalty-kill. The Avalanche have a 3.3 implied puck total and have one of the best opponents on the slate. Don’t be afraid to take the center discount and stack this high-end top line for Colorado.
Superstar to Target
Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings ($9,300)
Ovechkin comes into this game making a serious run at the MVP title this season. He’s averaging a ridiculous 5.4 shots on goal + blocked shots per game so far in 2021 and gets a Detroit team who is taking the sixth-most penalties per game and also ranks sixth-last in penalty-kill efficiency.
This is a huge slate, so while we can choose to go balanced everywhere, doing that likely makes us miss out on the insane floor/ceiling that Ovechkin is bringing to a sport that can have wildly erratic DFS performances, even from its best players. Use Ovechkin and look for that sweet discount at other positions.
Value on Offense
Jaden Schwartz, Seattle Kraken vs. Anaheim Ducks ($3,800)
The Kraken offensive core remains quite underpriced on most nights for daily fantasy. Taking advantage of that when they are in good spots, tends to be one of the best ways to decrease the overall salary average of our rosters when building lineups. Schwartz has overcome a slow start and has averaged 3.75 shots on net over his last five games, and he has also averaged a point per game over that same span. The Ducks have allowed the seventh-most shots on net and quality scoring chances against this year. Schwartz is uber cheap and a great way to help us fit in our high-priced wingers from above.
Dillon Dube, Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens ($2,800)
The Flames take on the Montreal Canadiens tonight, one of the worst defensive teams in the league right now, so getting some exposure to the Calgary offense seems like a good plan. The Flames are road favorites and have a 3.0 implied goal total which only makes role players like Dillon Dube more viable in this spot. Dube is averaging over 15 minutes a game over his last five outings and gets power play exposure to go along with consistent third-line minutes. He’s averaging just under 3.0 shots on goal per game and is averaging 0.6 points per game, making his sub-3k salary look very underpriced.
Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets vs. San Jose Sharks ($8,600)
The Jets are -190 favorites on this slate on the DraftKings Sportsbook (as of writing) and face a San Jose Sharks team who is perhaps a little high on themselves after a huge win against the Flames. With all that in mind, when we’re looking to pay up in net tonight in DFS, there’s few goalies who feel safer than the Jets likely starter, Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck had a great outing in his last start, stopping 31 of 33 shots faced and should be well rested after a couple of days off. The potential here for a big night feels quite high against a lackluster offensive team.
Matt Murray, Ottawa Senators vs. Los Angeles Kings ($7,600)
As mentioned above, the Senators are basically in a pick ’em situation at home vs. the Kings, and this makes veteran Matt Murray an interesting GPP play at well under 8k. He hasn’t played well to start the year, but did look good in his last start, posting a .917 save percentage against a dominant Boston team. Murray won’t be popular, as the Kings are riding a six game win streak, but if he did post another strong performance, it wouldn’t shock at all. Fade the Kings on the tail end of a long road trip today.
Value on Defense
Noah Hanifin, Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens ($3,100)
One other way that we can get cheap exposure to the Flames today is on defense. Noah Hanifin is still playing solid minutes for the Flames and comes in averaging over 21 minutes of ice time and 3.0 blocked shots + shots on goal per game. At just barely over 3k in price, we’re not paying a premium at all for a player with a decent floor at his position, and who provides us some second unit power play exposure.
We also know the Flames have the potential to breakout with a bunch of goals. Montreal has given up the ninth-most scoring chances against 5v5 and is fourth to last in penalty-kill percentage. Taking a punt on Hanifin to help fit in our top plays isn't a wild idea, as any kind of point would likely provide us with a great return given his solid output elsewhere.
Thomas Chabot, Ottawa Seantors vs. Los Angeles Kings ($6,300)
The Ottawa Senators aren’t a sexy team to target for daily fantasy purposes, but they have a solid match up against the Kings. L.A. is on the tail end of a long eastern road trip and are still depleted on the back-end. They have the sixth-worst penalty kill in the league and feel like they’re working on borrowed time a little in terms of their current six game win streak.
Chabot comes in averaging 4.75 blocked shots + shots on goal per game this year, and has yet to grab a goal despite already having 30 shots on net. He’s got a career shooting percentage over 5% (not bad for a defenseman), so eventually we’re going to see some goals go in for the Senators main blueline cog on the power play. He’s a great pay up target in a game where the Senators feel live to go over their projected goal total.
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