Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
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Stacks
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Matt Ryan ($6,000) — Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,600) — CeeDee Lamb ($7,000)
An underrated story of the last few weeks has been the play of Matt Ryan, who walks into this game having thrown for 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions over his last five games. Despite the loss of Calvin Ridley, the Falcons have remained a pass-first team and come into this week having thrown the ball 38.0 times per game, which is ninth-highest in the league.
The Cowboys have held the last four quarterbacks they’ve faced to under 250 yards, but they haven’t faced any elite pass offenses in that span either. Dallas remains one of the fastest paced teams in the league and teams playing against them have also averaged over 36 pass attempts per game. Using Ryan saves us money vs. Dak Prescott ($6,900) on the other side of this game and also gives us exposure to an offense that should push for 40+ pass attempts considering they’re 8-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Stacking Ryan may not be all that complicated either. Hybrid RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson comes into this game off his best receiving game of the season as he went for 125 yards and a touchdown on just five catches. Patterson leads the Falcons in red zone touches and is second in overall targets, making him especially immune to any kind of game-flow concerns. Patterson is the exact kind of player that could exploit this Cowboys defense too. Dallas has now allowed 4.8 yards per carry over their last three games and got smashed on the ground last week by Denver’s running backs for 191 yards.
On the flip side of this game, we rightfully want some exposure to the Cowboys’ offense given they have a monster 31.50 implied team total. Atlanta has given up the sixth-most touchdowns to the wide receiver position and now ranks second to last in sack rate. While it’s always tempting to go with Amari Cooper (questionable) at home, he can’t seem to shake a hamstring issue, so paying up for CeeDee Lamb ($7,000) is likely the better option. Cooper’s presence will keep Lamb’s ownership down but Lamb is also the one who leads the team in targets and has a yards per catch average 2.0 yards bigger than Cooper’s. There should be lots of time for deep shots too vs. a defense that doesn't get pressure and Lamb—who has averaged over nine targets over his last three games—should be in a ripe mood to bounce back after getting almost completely shut down by Denver’s defense.
Just Missed: Aaron Rodgers ($7,100) - Davante Adams ($7,900)
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts ($5,300)
When we’re fishing for cheap quarterbacks in Week 10, we do have a couple of great matchups to look at. Of the handful to choose from, I do like targeting Trevor Lawrence’s meeting with Indianapolis the best. The Colts have been quite the disaster in the secondary this season, allowing the third most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns. They’re not getting pressure (21st in sacks) and rank just 26th in yards per pass attempt against.
Lawrence is by no means a sure thing, and he did miss some practice time with an ankle injury this week, but this is a tournament strategy article after all and we are going for ceiling and a great points to salary potential. The rookie comes in averaging 41 pass attempts over his last three games and has fared better in road games this season where he’s averaging 18.8 DKFP per game vs. just 13.6 at home. The Colts have given up 300+ passing yards in three of their last five games and just allowed journeyman Josh Johnson to rack up 317 yards and three touchdowns in three quarters of work. Attacking with the semi-mobile Lawrence makes sense if you’re looking to pay down at quarterback.
Just Missed: Trevor Siemian ($5,200)
Running Back
Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($5,300)
Gordon’s coming off his biggest week of the season, when he took 21 carries against a pretty decent Dallas rush defense and gashed them for 80 yards and a touchdown. Denver had the edge in that game from the start which certainly led to the higher usage but there’s every reason to think that same scenario plays out again here. The Broncos are at home and playing the Eagles, who are 3-point underdogs and have ceded the fourth most fantasy points against—and second most receptions—to opposing running backs this season.
From a roster-building standpoint, there’s plenty of big names this week to pay up for at running back and the common theme is likely going to be lineups with multiple $6K and above running backs. Among the cheaper backs though (under $6K), Gordon’s upside looks like it could challenge some of the bigger names this slate. His snap share continues to edge in front of the rookie Javonte Williams ($5,000) and it’s pretty clear Gordon is the one who will be icing the game away for now if the Broncos have the lead. Among the limited options in this range for Week 10, Gordon rates out as one of the best.
Just Missed: Christian McCaffrey ($8,400)
Wide Receiver
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings ($6,600)
Mike Williams started the season unbelievably hot, with six touchdowns in five games and four games with 80 yards or more receiving. Anyone familiar with terms like “variance”, “regression” and “sample size” likely isn't overly shocked by the fact he’s now cooled off bit with just two catches in each of his last three games. The feast-famine cycle definitely seems like it’s created an opportunity for us in Week 10 though as his salary is now under $7K for the first time since Week 4, yet he remains a very low sentiment play—and seems likely to come in well under 10% owned in many big GPPs.
Williams faces off against a Minnesota pass defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the WR position and already ceded six separate games of over 100 yards to opposing wideouts. The Chargers remain one of the most pass heavy teams in the league, throwing 40 times per game, and should be looking to get Williams back involved—against a terrible secondary—after three straight games with just five targets. He’s a great buy-low candidate.
Just Missed: Tyler Johnson ($3,300)
Tight End
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets ($4,500)
Hear me out. What if the Bills’ recent offensive struggles was due to not having one of the best, emerging, pass-catching tight ends in their lineup the last couple of weeks? Dawson Knox was averaging 13.6 yards per catch and had already converted seven red zone targets into five touchdowns before his injury. In the two games he missed entirely, the Bills only averaged 255 yards passing and threw for just two touchdowns.
Buffalo’s struggles are not all Knox related, but his presence this week (he practiced in full Thursday) is certainly going to help. The Jets have allowed a 74% conversion rate to the tight end position and the seventh-most touchdown receptions to opposing tight ends. Knox’s salary is going to keep ownership low but his ceiling against this weaker Jets pass defense feels very in tact. He may not need heavy volume to get us 15.0+ DKFP this week.
Just Missed: O..J Howard ($2,700)
DST
Detroit Lions ($2,300) at Pittsburgh Steelers
People have been trying to make this cheap Lions DST play a thing all season so I figure why not take my shot at it. Detroit is finally coming in without any hype (that happens when you lose eight straight) but do take on a Steelers team whose offensive line just about gave the game away late last week with some terrible sacks against Chicago. There’s lots in the Lions’ favor here just in terms of setup too as Pittsburgh is on a short week (played Monday) while the Lions are coming off a bye.
Detroit has slumped in terms of pressure rate, but they’re also catching the Steelers potentially without two of their top three wideouts as Chase Claypool (toe) looks highly questionable to play in this week's game. Detroit has been decent against the run (16th in yards per rush allowed), and if the Lions can force Ben Roethlisberger ($5,600) to drop back a few more times in this spot, those game-changing defensive plays could be there for this unit to pounce on. It’s the right time to pay down for a rested Lions DST going up against a banged up Steelers offensive unit.
Just missed: Broncos ($3,200)
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