After sweeping my underdog picks in Week 9, my overall record for the season is 17-10. There are some tricky games upcoming in Week 10 with injuries and COVID-19 impacting several teams. After sifting through the matchups, here are three underdogs to consider taking a chance on.
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Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys: Falcons +8
It was an ugly performance from the Cowboys last week during a 30-16 loss to the Broncos at home. The game was even more lopsided than the final score indicated given that the Broncos built up a 30-0 lead. Dak Prescott was not sharp in his first game back from a calf injury, completing just 19 of his 39 pass attempts.
As bad as last week was for the Cowboys, the Falcons are flying high after pulling off a win on the road against the Saints. They blew a big lead, but pulled off a game-winning field goal as time expired. After two blowout losses to start the season, the Falcons have posted a 4-2 record with both of their losses coming by six points or fewer. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Cowboys bounce back with a win here, but the Falcons also have a favorable chance of keeping the game fairly close.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: Browns +2.5
Talk about an odd season for the Patriots. They have won three straight games, two of which came on the road. They are 4-0 on the road, but just 1-4 at home. Their only win at home came against the Jets, which isn’t saying much. They’ll try to earn their second home win in this matchup, but they could be shorthanded at running back with Damien Harris in the concussion protocol.
The Browns have plenty of running back issues of their own. Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton have both tested positive for COVID-19 and Kareem Hunt (calf) isn’t ready to return from IR. The good news is, they still have D’Ernest Johnson, who rushed for 146 yards and a touchdown in Week 7 against the Broncos with both Chubb and Hunt out. Given the Patriots’ struggles at home, the Browns could emerge from this matchup victorious.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills: Jets +11
What in the world went wrong with the Bills last week? In what should have been a runaway win over the Jaguars, they only scored six points and actually lost. Their defense wasn’t at fault given that they held the Jaguars to nine points. Part of the problem was Josh Allen, who had his first multi-interception game of the season.
The Jets didn’t exactly shine last week, either, in a 45-30 loss to the Colts. Quarterback Mike White had to leave the game with a forearm injury, which was a disappointing follow-up to his breakout performance in Week 8 that saw him throw for 405 yards and three touchdowns. The good news is that he’s already been named the starter for this game, so his injury was minor. The underdog has covered the spread in each of the last seven meetings between the Jets and Bills at MetLife Stadium, so while it would seem likely that the Bills will rebound with a victory, this game might be closer than some would expect.
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