We have an 11-game NBA slate today. On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are no games with a total of at least 230 and five games with a total of at least 220 (NYK/CHA, POR/HOU, PHX/MEM, CHI/GSW and MIN/LAL). The DET/CLE game has the lowest total on the slate at 201. The Nets are the biggest favorite at 8.5 points over the Pelicans and there are five games with spreads at three points or lower (MIN/LAL, DAL/SA, PHX/MEM, MIL/BOS and NYK/CHA). Things are going to change throughout the day, so make sure to keep abreast of the news by following @dklive on Twitter and by checking out our NBA Cheat Sheet here on Playbook.
Let’s break down some of the top studs and values at each position to help you build your DraftKings lineups.
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs ($11,100) – Doncic has been good this season but he hasn’t been HalleLuka. Last season, he went over 60 DKFP 22 times, with nine of those over 70 and four above 80. He’s scored 60 DKFP once in 11 games this season. So why is he my favorite point guard today? The usage rate is still 25.7% and he’s contributing across the board. The field goal percentage is at 43% on the season. He shot over 46% in each of the last two seasons. Finally, the matchup is a good one as it’s a pace-up spot since the Spurs are fourth in offensive pace and they boost the FPPM to point guards by 12.72%.
Other Options – James Harden ($10,400), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,800), D’Angelo Russell ($7,200)
Patrick Beverley, Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers ($4,200) - Despite the return of D’Angelo Russell ($7,200), Beverley has maintained his spot in the starting rotation and is playing a ton of minutes. He played 35 minutes with Russell in the last game, and prior to that, he received 30, 27 and 32 minutes. Minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe! Now, Beverley is a low-usage player (12%) so the ceiling isn’t high but he chips in a little something in every category and has gone for at least 20 DKFP in every game but one this season with a high of 36.5. The matchup is a good one as the Lakers are first in offensive pace and boost the FPPM to point guards by 14.73%, the most in the league.
Other Options – Nah’Shon Hyland ($3,200)
Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors ($8,000) – Golden State is first in defensive efficiency and they negate the FPPM to shooting guards by 11.42%. That said, it’s a pace-up spot for the Bulls as the Warriors are fifth in offensive pace and LaVine is a little underpriced for his role. Nikola Vucevic is out and LaVine has seen a usage rate bump to 41.7% when Vucevic is off the floor.
Other Options – Devin Booker ($9,500), D’Angelo Russell ($7,200)
Will Barton, Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks ($6,900) – Usually, I write up players who are $5,000 or below for values but Barton seems a little cheap for his role. Over the last four games, Barton has produced at least 35 DKFP in every contest with four above 40. Now, Nikola Jokic ($11,700) missed one game while Michael Porter Jr. missed two of those games, but in the other two games in which both played, Barton had a usage rate in the 25% area and went for at least 45 DKFP in both games. Jokic is back for this one but Porter Jr. is out, so Barton should have a high usage rate again and gets a fantastic matchup as the Hawks boost the FPPM to shooting guards by 18.18%.
Other Options – Josh Richardson ($3,300)
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks ($10,100) – I’m not crazy about the options up top at the position. It’s between Tatum and Kevin Durant ($11,100). Durant seems a little too expensive as there is a chance he scores closer to the 35 DKFP range than the 50-point range since the Nets could easily handle the Pelicans. Tatum does have the tougher matchup, but without Jaylen Brown in the lineup, he has a usage rate of 33.8% which is tops on the team. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Celtics are 1.5-point home dogs so this should be a competitive affair.
Kyle Anderson, Memphis Grizzlies vs. Phoenix Suns ($4,300) – Mr. Anderson doesn’t start and is only averaging 22.8 minutes per game on the season. That said, he’s played 29 and 25 minutes over the last two contests and contributed 36.25 and 26.75 DKFP. The usage rate vacillates from the low-teens to the 20% range so the ceiling isn’t particularly high, but he does contribute a little something in every statistical category. DraftKings Sportsbook has the total at 222 for this game with the Grizzlies two-point home dogs. Surprisingly, Phoenix is sixth in offensive pace while Memphis is 12th, so there could be plenty of possessions to score those fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Josh Richardson ($3,300)
Julius Randle, New York Knicks @ Charlotte Hornets ($10,200) – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) is always appealing but he’s so expensive and I could see Al Horford ($7,600) slowing him down some. Randle is coming off a 26.25-DKFP game against the Bucks, his second sub-30 DKFP game on the season. He’s gone for at least 50 DKFP in five contests this season with a high of 68. The Hornets are third in offensive pace while being 29th in defensive efficiency. They also boost the FPPM to power forwards by 10.2%. The matchup and game environment are fantastic for Randle to feast.
Other Options – Anthony Davis ($10,900)
Alize Johnson, Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors ($3,100) – With Nikola Vucevic out due to COVID-19 protocols, the center minutes will have to go somewhere. There is uncertainty because we don’t know how the minutes and rotations will be allocated. In the last game, Johnson played 10 minutes while Tony Bradley ($3,000) played six. Bradley could start but Johnson could play more minutes. Johnson could play more if the Bulls decided to play more small-ball. We just have no idea but both Johnson and Bradley should see an uptick in playing time regardless. Johnson is averaging 0.85 DKFP per minute this season.
Other Options – Tony Bradley ($3,000), Trey Lyles ($3,200)
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks ($11,700) – Jokic has the highest floor/ceiling combination on the slate—as long as he doesn’t bust out his WWE moves on another player. He’s scored at least 40 DKFP in every game this season with four games above 60 and two with at least 70. He can mess around on any given night and without Porter Jr. in the mix, he sees a 4.4 percentage point usage rate bump.
Other Options – Julius Randle ($10,200), Anthony Davis ($10,900), Jarrett Allen ($7,800)
LaMarcus Aldridge, Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans ($4,100) – Aldridge only plays around 20 minutes per night but he can get hot and produce plenty of fantasy goodies. In the last two games, he’s played 22 and 23 minutes, attempted 13 and 16 shots and contributed 34.5 and 33.75 DKFP. He's scored at least 20 DKFP in eight games this season with four above 30. The Pelicans boost the FPPM to centers by 2.99%.
Other Options – Alize Johnson ($3,100), Tony Bradley ($3,000), Frank Kaminsky ($5,500)
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