An AFC West matchup is on deck for Sunday Night Football when the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Sin City to face the Las Vegas Raiders. The home team is coming off a road loss to the New York Giants, while the visiting team was able to best Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers, scoring just 13 points.
Let’s look at this game from a Showdown perspective.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Travis Kelce ($15,000 CP) — It’s been tough sledding for the Chiefs, but one thing we know for sure is how well Kelce plays against the Raiders. Last season, Kelce averaged 27 DKFP with a total of 22 targets and 16 catches against Vegas. Kelce’s averaging just under eight targets, and the Raiders are giving up the third-most DKFP per game to opposing TEs this season.
Derek Carr ($15,900 CP) — The Raiders had ample opportunities in the red zone last week but could only come away with one touchdown. Still, this is a bounce-back spot for No. 4 going up against the 27th-ranked passing defense that is giving up 24 DKFP per game. Carr’s also throwing it a ton, averaging 39 attempts per contest and just over 26 completions through eight games. The Chiefs’ pass defense is giving up the 13th-highest completion percentage (66.7%) and the eighth-highest TD rate (5.3%) to opposing offenses, so Carr should be able to rack up points against a familiar division foe. Look for the Raiders to take some deep shots as well against Kansas City, which ranks 29th in passer rating allowed on attempts of 20-plus air yards, per PFF.com.
FLEX Plays
Darrel Williams ($7,200) — Williams saw his second-highest carries total of the season last week, with the Chiefs in a close game against the Packers. Long, sustained drives will help keep their struggling defense on the sidelines, which means more Williams with Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7,800) doubtful for Sunday night. Five red-zone carries will also be extremely valuable against a Raiders defense that has given up eight touchdowns to RBs on the season. Williams is also a factor in the passing game, running an average of 23 routes over his previous three games.
Kenyan Drake ($4,400) — The Chiefs apply the seventh-highest pressure rate (27%) and blitz the second-most (33.6%) and we know Carr can get a little antsy with his feet when he’s got a lot going on around the pocket. Drake’s averaging 42% of the snaps over his previous two games and has scores of 21.3, 16.9 and 16.0 in DKFP over his past three outings. Drake should get a lot of usage in a game that’s got a 51.5 game total on DraftKings Sportsbook as of press time against a team that has given up the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season.
Fades
Josh Jacobs ($13,200 CP; $8,800) - His highest DKFP output was back in Week 1 (17.0) when he scored twice against the Baltimore Ravens. Since then, it’s been a struggle for the third-year back out of Alabama, with Jacobs averaging 42.6% of the snaps over his previous two games and just over 9.5 routes over his past three. Jacobs has yet to eclipse the century mark in a game this year, with his highest total coming last week (76 yards) on just 13 carries. The upside just isn’t there for Jacobs unless he’s scoring touchdowns.
THE OUTCOME
The Raiders’ defensive line has been highly effective, ranking 32nd in blitz rate but fifth in pressure rate, meaning they’re getting to the QB with just their front four. When Patrick Mahomes ($18,600 CP; $12,400) has a clean pocket, his passer rating sits at 105. When he’s under pressure, his rating drops precipitously to 60.5, which may hurt the Chiefs’ ability to stack big plays and keep pace with the Raiders’ offense at home. Aside from Week 5’s debacle against the Bears, the Raiders have averaged 32.3 points per game. Mahomes has dominated the Raiders in the past, and he shouldn’t see a bunch of two-high safeties Sunday night as Gus Bradley’s defense doesn’t run that scheme very often. Still, Tyreek Hill ($16,500 CP; $11,000) has been nursing injuries all season, and the Chiefs’ run game has been nonexistent. They should look better offensively this week, but it still won’t be enough.
Final Score: Las Vegas Raiders 30, Kansas City Chiefs 27
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (KC vs LV)
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