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Saturday night’s featured NBA Showdown contest is a matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Los Angeles Clippers at 10:30 p.m. ET. As usual, DraftKings is featuring a huge Showdown contest for this game, and below are slate specific targets for Saturday’s nightcap.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (MIN vs LAC)
Captain’s Picks
Paul George ($19,200)
The Clippers are better than a 7-4 team, as they have won seven of their last eight games. They’re second in defensive efficiency rating (99.8), but they have a middle of the pack offense. Paul George’s best games this season have come in losses because those were tough games where he had to step up. On the current streak, different members of his supporting cast have stepped up and the scheduled has been kind. The schedule does not tighten up tonight and one of the Clippers’ role players could again step into the offensive spotlight. Fading Paul George on a Showdown can work in GPPs, if a certain game script plays out. However, if this is a normal NBA game like most during his career, then he scores the most DKFP on this slate and DFS players are going to want that 1.5x bonus.
Paul George is playing 35.3 minutes per game with a usage rate of 34% and that has translated into 1.3 FPPM. The Timberwolves play average defense and play at the eight-fastest pace in the league. With the Clippers already being a top-10 team in pace, it’s no surprise that this game has the highest total on Saturday (221.5). George is going to get a lot of volume against an average defense that plays at a fast pace, and that defense is on the last leg of a four-game road trip.
Naz Reid ($2,700)
This is the classic letdown spot. It’s the fourth and final game of Minnesota's road trip and it’s following an emotional win over the Lakers that snapped a six-game losing streak. The Timberwolves could maintain their high and ride the momentum to another win. However, it is more likely that they run into a wall versus a much better opponent, and the backups get extended run.
If Karl-Anthony Towns sits, then Naz Reid becomes a lock for lineups and almost a lock for the Captain’s spot. The schedule warrants rest for the big man, but he’s rarely granted a respite. It’s most likely, that he plays, but either: A. does not play much or B. the Timberwolves get smoked, in which case, he most assuredly does not play 30 minutes. In either case, this opens the door for the continued growth of Naz Reid.
In the last two games, Reid has played 25 and 19 minutes, and Minnesota is going to need those minutes with KAT having played 43, 38 and 30 minutes in the last three games combined with the fact they are on the back-end of a back-to-back. In those two games, Reid recorded 12 and seven rebounds, which is consistent with his season average. The minutes and rebounds have been there all season, but as the Timberwolves (4-7) dropped game after game, they began to search for answers. One was to look to Reid, and he answered by shooting the ball 12 times on Nov. 10 and Nov. 12.
This price point does not match the situation. Reid could play massive minutes, his role is suddenly changing and the the Clippers’ frontcourt has allowed the sixth-most DKFP to centers this season.
UTIL Plays
Reggie Jackson ($8,200)
A different Clipper emerges each night, but several have sustained their roles as offensive producers. After a terrible start to the season (31/100 FG in six games), Jackson has come to life — 43/89 FG for a 48.3% FG% over the last five games. His rebounds, assists and minutes have been stable all season, but as his shots have begun to fall, his usage rate has increased. In the last two games, he’s recorded season-high usage rates of 29.8 and 30.8%. The Timberwolves boost the DKFP of the opposing PG by 8% and have allowed the second-most DKFP per game to the position.
Eric Bledsoe ($6,000)
Someone was bound to step up for the Clippers, and it’s been the usual suspects. Bledsoe is trending in right direction, and this will be a pace up game with an average defense, that struggles to limit fantasy production in the backcourt. In the last two games, Bledsoe has played 31 and 40 minutes, and although his usage rate hasn’t been there —thanks to Jackson and George — he’s performed efficiently with the usage that he has been allotted. He shot 56% on 16 shots from the field against a solid Heat defense on Nov. 11. That game followed 43% and 40% shooting nights. Those games may seem unimpressive, but they were a clear step forward from a player with a 34% shooting percentage in the previous seven games.
Ivica Zubac ($6,400)
With Naz Reid at Captain, just about anyone fits into a showdown lineup. However, this isn’t just about savings, there is a correlation between Zubac and Reid. If Reid gets extended run, then that means less Karl-Anthony Towns. That opens the door for more points and rebounds for Zubac and less foul concerns (fouls are rarely a concern with Zubac, but it’s worth mentioning in this matchup). Even if Reid does not find his way into the Captain’s slot, pairing Zubac and Reid in the utility spots seems like it will be a very popular move on Saturday night.
Zubac scored 36.5 DKFP on just seven shots against the Timberwolves on Nov. 5 (9x value). Much of his production comes on the glass and he’s been consistent in that regard, grabbing 11 rebounds or more in three of the last four games. He doesn’t shoot much, but when he does, they’re high percentage shots — his 70% True Shooting% ranks fourth in the NBA. On the rare occasion that he gets plenty of looks, like in his last game on Nov. 11, he absolutely crushes in DFS — 38.8 DKFP on 10 shots.
Fades
Karl-Anthony Towns ($12,400)
Over his career, KAT has not rested on back-to-backs. He rarely takes a game off at all. With the Timberwolves’ season in danger of being over before December, the team cannot afford to rest Towns, but for the long run and the short run, it’s necessary for him to sit. Nonetheless, he’ll likely suit up for the fourth and final game of the West Coast swing and his third game in four days. Even if Towns reaches down and finds the inspiration to will his team to victory — similar to his performance in the third quarter on Friday night — he’s going to have to do it against one of the best teams in the NBA.
The Clippers have the second-best defensive efficiency rating (99.1) and have already shutdown Towns twice. On Nov. 3 and Nov. 5 — both games at Minnesota — the Clippers held Towns to 45.8 and 30.5 DKFP. Those were two of his worst performance this season. They were not awful, but they do not match his price point.
The Outcome
The Clippers are not flashy, but their roster is filled with very good players. The Timberwolves are not flashy either, but their roster is filled with players that could be good, but rarely live up to expectations. D’Angelo Russell perfectly symbolizes this team. He is good at the game of basketball, but he is not a winner. He’s made the playoffs once in his career with a 42-40 sixth-seeded Nets team that got bounced in the first round in 2019. Minnesota has players that can light up the stat sheet, but they cannot light up the standings (e.g. Anthony Edwards scoring 48 points in a loss to Golden State on Nov. 10).
Final Score: Clippers 116, Timberwolves 95
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (MIN vs LAC)
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