It’s Week 10 in the NFL, and I’m back again to survey each game for value player props. I’m going to be looking for favorable matchups once again and backing a couple of quarterbacks. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers over 266.5 Passing Yards (-115)
You know the drill by now. The Seahawks could be the worst secondary in football, ranking second-to-last with 40.4 passes against them per game and 29th in passing yards allowed per game at 273.9.
I think you’re getting a discount here given Rodgers’ week off due to COVID-19, and I’m willing to bet he’s throwing the ball all day long against this group of weak cover men. The Seahawks also rank 10th in DVOA against the run, which should dissuade Matt LaFleur from calling Aaron Jones’ name very often.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Tyler Higbee Anytime TD (+225)
The Rams won’t have Robert Woods for this game and will need someone to go to around the red zone. Cooper Kupp is the NFL’s leader in targets inside the 20, and Woods ranks second.
Down in 10th place among all pass-catchers, you’ll find Higbee, who is normally on the field in scoring situations and is a natural fit to get the ball a bit more with the defense turning their attention to Kupp. Sean McVay likes to mix it up in goal-to-go situations, and I’d anticipate him preferring Higbee, as opposed to going to some smaller, shiftier options like Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards (-115)
Allen has hit this number in four of his past five games and has actually only failed to eclipse 33.5 yards twice this season. While it’s never a certainty that Allen is going to run the ball a ton, especially with a nice matchup here against a weak Jets secondary, I see it happening.
The Jets’ pass rush has been underrated this year and should flush Allen outside the pocket, where he’ll have the ability to run. It’s also worth noting that Allen has gone for 51.4 yards per game on the ground in his five career meetings with the Jets. He’s only averaged more rushing yards against one other NFL team.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is jetsfan196) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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