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NFL Picks Fantasy Football Values: Top DraftKings DFS Bargain Plays for Week 11

Stan Son goes position-by-position to find the best affordable plays for this week’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Week 11. The last few weeks have been ones of oppression. Can we get some regression and progression to get us to DFS heaven? According to DraftKings Sportsbook, there are two games on the main DraftKings NFL slate with an O/U of at least 50 points this week: ARI/SEA (50) and DAL/KC (55). There are two games with a spread of at least 10 points: CLE (-10) over DET and TEN (-10) over HOU.

Nine games kick off at 1 p.m. ET, while three games are in the afternoon window. Why? Anyways, let’s dive into the cheaper end of the player pool and find some bargain options for Week 11.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


QUARTERBACK

($6,000 and under)

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets, $5,500 – Tua did not start last week due to a finger injury. He did play, though—because Jacoby Brissett injured his knee—and he played well, going 8-of-13 for 158 yards with one rushing touchdown. Brian Flores has already announced Tua as the starter in Week 11 against the Jets, who are 30th in pass-defense DVOA and 24th in adjusted sack rate. The Dolphins pass at the third-highest rate and play at the fifth-fastest pace.


RUNNING BACK

($5,000 and under)

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills, $4,300 – There aren’t a ton of options below $5K so let’s squirt some Hines into our life. The Colts are seven-point underdogs on the road to the Bills, so the game script will likely call for offensive aggression to keep up. In addition, the Bills are third in rush defense DVOA. Granted, they are first in pass defense DVOA, but if they are chasing points then attacking through the air will be the likeliest path. Hines has four games with at least five targets in a game and has exceeded 10 DKFP in three games with a high of 20.8. He has five carries and one target in the red zone.


WIDE RECEIVER

($5,000 and under)

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears, $4,500 – Batemon has played in four games and has received six, six, eight and eight targets. He’s hauled in 80 yards in two of those contests and scored double-digit DKFP in three games. He’s received a red-zone target in each of the last two games. Despite playing around 60% of the snaps, Bateman has been among the team leaders in targets.

Elijah Moore, New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins, $4,900 – Over the last four games, Moore has scored double-digit DKFP in every contest with a high of 27.4. He’s received at least six targets in every game with a high of eight. He’s scored three touchdowns over the last two games with a total of four red-zone targets. The Dolphins should have success on offense which could force the Jets to be aggressive.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Football Team, $4,600 — He’s alive!!! After being neutered by Sam Darnold all season and scoring double-digit DKFP in only one game, Anderson rose from the ashes to haul in four of six targets for 37 yards and a touchdown last week. Yipeee....yup, the season has been that bad. Well, Cam Newton ($5,100) is on track to start in Week 11 and let’s not forget that Mr. Anderson had a career season just last year with 95 receptions on 136 targets for 1,096 yards and three touchdowns. The Football Team is 31st in pass-defense DVOA and just lost their best pass rusher to injury.


TIGHT END

($4,000 and under)

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts, $4,000 – Knox caught his only target for 17 yards last week. The Bills won by 38 points and he was returning from an injury, so there was no reason to push him. On the season, he received more than five targets and exceeded 100 yards receiving only once. That said, he’s scored five touchdowns and has seven red-zone targets on the season. The Colts are second in rush-defense DVOA, so the path of least resistance is the path most often taken by the Bills. In addition, the Colts are 24th in DVOA against tight ends.

Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers, $3,900 – Conklin scored two touchdowns last week, so it feels a little point-chasy, but I promise that’s not the only reason. Conklin has received at least five targets in six games this season with a high of eight. He’s exceeded 50 yards receiving three times and has eight red-zone targets on the season. The Packers are 23rd in DVOA against tight ends.


DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

($2,800 and under)

Panthers DST, Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Football Team, $2,700 – The Panthers are fourth in pass-defense DVOA and first in adjusted sack rate. They have scored double-digit DKFP in three games this season and accumulated 27 sacks, four fumble recoveries, eight interceptions and one touchdown. Taylor Heinicke ($5,300) has thrown nine interceptions and been sacked 19 times.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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