There are two teams on their bye this week, the Rams and Broncos, so no Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams, or Darrell Henderson on this week’s main DraftKings NFL slate.
Listed below are the RBs that I think will return the best value at their price point on DraftKings this week, whether as studs or value plays, and their opportunity projections are also included.
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Studs
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Football Team, $8,900
He’s baaaack! Well, sort of. CMC put up 26.1 DKFP last week and caught all ten of his targets, despite not playing most of the final quarter. He received three carries and two targets in the red zone. That said, he only received 13 carries and got vultured in the red zone. The Panthers are not fully pushing him right now but the trend is our friend in that department. Cam Newton ($5,100) is back at quarterback, which is a good thing for CMC and the entire Panthers offense in general. While the Football Team is stout against the run, they are 25th in DVOA against receptions to running backs.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 12.3 attempts
Receiving: 5.8 Targets; 4.5 Receptions
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills, $8,300
Taylor is the stock market of fantasy football. He just keeps going up. At some point, it will be wise to fade/short both but when? That is the million-dollar question. The Bills are third in rush defense DVOA but Taylor has smashed against the 49ers and Ravens, who are both near the top. Taylor has scored in seven consecutive games and totaled nine touchdowns over that span. He’s received more than 20 carries only once this season but has gone over 100 yards five times. While he isn’t heavily involved in the passing game, Taylor has two games with six targets and has gone over 100 yards once with a touchdown. He has 51 carries and four targets in the red zone.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 17.8 attempts
Receiving: 4.4 Targets; 3.4 Receptions
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers, $8,200
Cook is the engine of the Vikings’ offense, and as long as the game script allows, Zimmer and the coaching staff will run the ball and play good defense. Over the last four games, Cook has carried 29, 18, 17 and 24 times, rushing for 140, 78, 110 and 94 yards. He had a whopping 11 red-zone carries last week and has a total of 24 in the last four weeks. The passing game involvement fluctuates but he does have three games with at least five targets. The Packers are 22nd in rush defense DVOA and this game has a healthy total of 49 points according to DraftKings Sportsbook, so there could be plenty of opportunities to score those fantasy goodies.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 19.4 attempts
Receiving: 4.0 Targets; 3.1 Receptions
Values
AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings, $6,200
The snap count split between Dillon and Aaron Jones was 70/30 or 60/40 for most of the season. Well, Jones is out for this week, so Dillon should get the majority of the snaps. Kylin Hill has played a total of 26 snaps on the season. The Packers have averaged 26.3 carries a game and the running backs have garnered 68 total targets, which is a 23% target share. Dillon had 21 carries last week and scored two touchdowns. He received two targets and had a whopping 10 red-zone carries. The Vikings are 26th in rush defense DVOA.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 17.3 attempts
Receiving: 4.4 Targets; 3.4 Receptions
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks, $6,100
Kyler Murray ($7,900) is uncertain for Week 11. With the Cardinals' bye in Week 13, there’s a good chance Murray sits again. If he plays, then that obviously boosts the ceiling for Conner. That said, Conner is priced well for his expected role. With Chase Edmonds out, Conner has received 77% and 82% of the snaps. He’s scored a touchdown in every game but three and has four games with at least two touchdowns. Conner has 27 red-zone carries, which is sixth in the league.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 15.6 attempts
Receiving: 2.7 Targets; 2.0 Receptions
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