clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 11

Stan Son gives his top studs and values at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Week 11. There is no longer a question that DFS is a weekly obsession. Hopefully, this piece provides information like manna falling down from heaven. The Broncos and Rams are on their bye. As a result, there are 12 games on the main DraftKings NFL slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games with a total of at least 50 points — DAL/KC (56.5), CIN/LV (50) and IND/BUF (50.5). There are two double-digit favorites — TEN (-10) over HOU and CLE (-10) over DET.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


Quarterback

Stud

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals @ Las Vegas Raiders, $6,600 — There are plenty of good options at the top of the position this week. Josh Allen ($8,100) may be my favorite since the Bills love to throw and the path of least resistance against the Colts is through the air. Plus, he has rushing ability. That said, he’s the most expensive. I really like Dak Prescott ($7,200) as that game has the highest total on the slate, the Chiefs are top 10 in blitz rate and Prescott is one of the best quarterbacks against the blitz this season. I’m going to drop down $600 to Burrow, though. Obviously, everything depends on projected ownership levels later in the week and roster construction, but as of now, my thinking is that Burrow goes overlooked.

This game has a healthy total of 49.5 according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Burrow is coming off a game in which he threw 40 times but did not throw a touchdown and mustered only 9.38 DKFP. The Browns are third in pass rush according to PFF and the Raiders are first so there is a modicum of risk. That said, the Browns are eighth in coverage while the Raiders are 17th. Did you see what the Chiefs did to them last week?

Prior to his game against the Browns, Burrow threw at least two touchdowns in every game and four with at least three. The Raiders allow the fourth-highest DaDOT at 8.8 while blitzing at the lowest rate in the league. The game is in a dome so weather won’t be a factor. In addition, the Raiders are expected to put up points so that should keep the Bengals in an aggressive mindset.

Other Options – Josh Allen ($8,100), Lamar Jackson ($8,000), Patrick Mahomes ($7,600), Dak Prescott ($7,200)

Value

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Football Team, $5,100 — He’s baaaaaack. Newton got the job and will now be looking to dab it up once again for the Panthers. He played in only nine of the 66 snaps last week and scored two touchdowns! Newton is expected to take most of the first-team reps in practice and should start. Last season, he scored at least 20 DKFP in six games with two above 38. He rushed at least nine times in 11 games. Granted, that was in New England where the offensive was super, super conservative, but if you go back to 2018, the last season in Carolina before the injuries mounted, Newton rushed at least eight times in seven games and scored at least 20 DKFP in nine games with one above 30. He is just too cheap for the expected role and potential ceiling.

Other Option – Derek Carr ($5,900)


For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.


Running Back

Stud

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Football Team, $8,900 — He’s baaaaaaack, Part Deux. This game has an ugly 43-point total, so the game environment isn’t the juiciest, but McCaffrey is slowly rounding into form. Since returning from injury, he’s carried 14 and 13 times while garnering five and 10 targets. He has five rushes and two targets in the red zone. He scored 26.1 DKFP last week without scoring a touchdown. The return of Newton should be a plus for McCaffrey. Sure, he may vulture some touchdowns but those touchdowns are just gravy for CMC. The last time these two played together, CMC scored at least 30 DKFP in six games with a high of 52.7. He received at least six targets in 13 games with five over 10.

Other Options – Dalvin Cook ($8,200), Nick Chubb ($7,800), Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700), Joe Mixon ($7,600)

Value

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings, $6,200 – Aaron Jones is out so Dillon should see the majority of snaps in this one. Kylin Hill is on IR so Patrick Taylor ($4,000) will be the backup. Taylor has played a total of three snaps on the season. Dillon rushed 21 times for 66 yards and two touchdowns last week. He had 10 red-zone attempts and received two targets in the passing game. Known more as a bruiser, Dillon does have 18 targets on the season with two games over 40 yards receiving. The Vikings are 28th in rush defense DVOA.

Other Options – Antonio Gibson ($5,900), Mark Ingram ($5,400)—if Kamara is out


Wide Receiver

Stud

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals @ Las Vegas Raiders, $7,200 — Well, I wrote up Burrow as the stud quarterback so it only makes sense that I write up his top receiver as well. I mentioned above that the Raiders allow one of the highest aDOTs in the league. Chase is 15th in aDOT. Over the last six games, Chase has received 13, eight, 10, six, 10 and nine targets. He’s scored three touchdowns and gone over 100 yards receiving with a 201-yard game. He has 10 targets and three rushes in the red zone over that span. The Raiders are 17th in coverage according to PFF and are 22nd in pass-defense DVOA.

Other Options – Davante Adams ($8,400), Tyreek Hill ($8,200), CeeDee Lamb ($7,600), Deebo Samuel ($7,800)

Value

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets, $5,600 – The Dolphins are third in pass rate and the Jets are dead-last in pass-defense DVOA. A marriage made in fantasy heaven! Over the last five games, Waddle has received six, 10, 12, eight and 13 targets. While he hasn’t exceeded 100 yards, he’s gone over 80 twice and scored two touchdowns. Waddle has seven red-zone targets on the season.

Other Options – Tee Higgins ($5,400), Rashod Bateman ($4,500), Elijah Moore ($4,900), Michael Gallup ($4,200), Robby Anderson ($4,600)


Tight End

Stud

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys, $7,100 – Not much analysis is needed here. This game has the highest total on the slate, the Cowboys are 22nd in DVOA against tight ends and Kelce is one of Mahomes’ favorite targets. He’s received at least six targets in every game and five games with at least 10.

Other Options – Darren Waller ($6,100), George Kittle ($6,300), Mike Gesicki ($5,200)

Value

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts, $4,000 – The Colts’ pass defense filters things to the middle of their zone and underneath to running backs. They are 27th in DVOA against tight ends so Knox should be able to feast. He’s not a volume hog (more than five targets in only one game) but he’s efficient when he does get the ball thrown to him, hauling in five touchdowns. He has seven red-zone targets on the season.

Other Options – Dalton Schultz ($4,600), Tyler Conklin ($3,900), C.J. Uzomah ($3,500)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Browns DST vs. Detroit Lions, $3,100 – Have you seen Jared Goff play? The Browns are third in adjusted sack rate while Detroit is 25th in pass blocking. The Browns are favored by 10 points and the Lions don’t turtle up when behind so there should be plenty of opportunities for sacks and turnovers. Goff has thrown seven interceptions and taken 26 sacks on the season.

Other Option – Titans DST ($3,900)

Value

Panthers DST vs. Washington Football Team, $2,700 – Carolina is second in pass-defense DVOA and first in adjusted sack rate. While Washington is second in pass blocking according to PFF, Taylor Heinicke has taken five, five and four sacks over the last three games. On the season, Heinicke has thrown nine interceptions and been sacked 19 times.

Other Option – Seahawks DST ($2,700)—if Kyler Murray is out

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat. (CT).

21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.