NFL Week 11 gets underway on Thursday with the Patriots and Falcons squaring off on TNF. Let’s dig into some odds on DraftKings Sportsbook!
These TNF and MNF articles will always list out some of my favorite plays to consider. For my full card, including any bets I lock in from primetime games, make sure to check out my NFL Best Bets article. For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow.
Editor’s Note: Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) has been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Patriots.
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons
NE/TEN/TB ML Parlay (-104)
This one was tough for me to come up with. I got the Pats at the early number and like them in this game, but can’t possibly lay a touchdown with them on the road on a short week. These primetime games have seen some crazy results recently, but I do still think New England finds a way to win this one. So then I looked at some teaser legs in this one, and while a lot of spots are tempting, I actually trust going to a three-leg parlay here over a tease. I just don’t see Tennessee or Tampa Bay losing at home to far inferior competition, and those two legs help get the Pats down to close to even money. If I were to tease this one, I think I’d go with getting the Niners down to a pick.
As for the on-field analysis, the Patriots are rolling right now, perhaps becoming even a bit too trendy. The run game is working and the defense is stepping up, but the major difference is the coaches simply allowing Mac Jones to go down field with the ball. After a breakout game last week, we should see more of this against an Atlanta defense with plenty of holes. The Falcons are also running thin on weapons for Matt Ryan to target on offense. After moving on from Julio Jones, the offense just doesn’t have many explosive plays with Calvin Ridley out. This will allow the Pats to key in on Kyle Pitts. Cordarrelle Patterson is banged up, and might even miss this game as well.
Kendrick Bourne Long Reception OVER 17.5 Yards (-115)
Bourne has been one of those weapons that Jones has looked to downfield, and that’s really been the case for much of the season. Bourne has gone over this mark in four of his last five games, with long receptions of 75, 46 and 48 yards along the way. Those deep targets are going to be there, particularly against this defense. Jones seems to be trusting Bourne more and more, and the chemistry is building. Last week the duo hooked up on all four targets for 98 yards. I don’t mind playing Bourne on his receiving yards prop either.
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