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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 11 Top High-Upside DFS Targets, Sleepers

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


Stacks

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs

Dak Prescott ($7,600) — CeeDee Lamb ($7,200) — Amari Cooper ($6,200)

Editor’s note: Cowboys WR Amari Cooper has been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

Lots of eyes will be on the Chiefs-Cowboys game this week for DFS. With most of the field ready to pile back on Patrick Mahomes ($7,600) and the Chiefs’ skill players, one contrarian move may be to load up on Dak Prescott and his receivers. Prescott completed over 76% of his passes last week against another weak pass defense and looked a whole lot healthier than he did the week before when the Cowboys were embarrassed by the Broncos. It’s interesting to note that this week will be Dallas’ fifth road game of the year, and in three of their previous four road games, they threw the ball 40 or more times.

As he showed last week when he scored his first rushing touchdown of the season, a healthy Prescott can also handle the ball for us around the goal line. Given that the Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most passing yards, starting lineups with Prescott over the sure to be more popular Mahomes is likely the correct game theory move in big field GPPs.

Taking that one step further, if we like Dak for a high volume passing game, then why not go for the super stack with his two elite receivers. The case for CeeDee Lamb against a Kansas City defense, who has allowed the third-highest yards per pass attempt, is easy. The second-year player comes in leading the Cowboys in targets and averaging 15.4 yards per reception, a mark nearly three yards better than his rookie number in that stat—and 2.0 yards better than Amari Cooper. Cooper has done his yearly disappearing act over the last month or so, but was notably left off the injury report (hamstring) for the first time in over a month this week. There will be lots of lineups with Lamb or Cooper in them for this game, but likely not many that pair both of these high-end receivers. This double receiver stack potentially gives us exposure to big volume—and potentially massive fantasy totals—if the trend of Dallas throwing north of 40 times on the road continues in this spot.

Just Missed: Joe Burrow ($6,600) — Joe Mixon ($7,600) — Ja’Marr Chase ($7,200)


Quarterback

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints ($6,800)

Jalen Hurts has finally come back down to earth after a hot start. The Eagles quarterback has “only” averaged 15.84 DKFP over his last three games. Nothing about Hurts’ game has really changed much in the back half of the season, as he is averaging 10 carries a game over his last three starts, which is above his 9.6 average on the season.

Hurts has simply failed to find the end zone as a rusher of late (no rushing touchdowns in three games) and his passing volume has been the victim of the improvement by the Philly running backs and defense. New Orleans defends running backs very well and have allowed just 2.7 yards per carry to the position this year. Teams are averaging over 36 pass attempts against New Orleans this season, and New Orleans is a quality team that is unlikely to simply roll over as easily as a couple of the Eagles’ last opponents. Hurts should see both his passing volume and red zone rushing usage pick up this week given how well the Saints defend running backs. He’s a great low sentiment target for GPPs in Week 11 that can be deployed “naked” (aka without Philly receivers) if so desired.

Just Missed: Cam Newton ($5,100)


Running Back

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders ($6,900)

Joe Mixon and crew come into this meeting with Vegas off of a bye, and facing a defense who was shredded in all phases last week. The Raiders have been perpetually bad against the rush for a while now and are tied with Houston for eighth to last in yards per rush attempt. Vegas’ linebackers also struggled mightily to contain catches out of the backfield last week, and that’s an area where Mixon has excelled in 2021.

Over his last three games, Mixon has converted 14 of 16 targets into catches and averaged 11.64 yards per catch. Samaje Perine continues to see 5-10 touches per game, but Mixon has taken at least 17 touches in three of his last four games and hit 25.0 or more DKFP in three of his last four games, as well. Despite the great production and matchup, he and most of the Bengals’ skill players don’t seem to be catching much heat this week. Mixon has lots of potential and likely won’t be heavily rostered in big fields with many looking to splurge on more marquee matchups.

Just Missed: Eli Mitchell ($5,800)


Wide Receiver

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets ($5,600)

The Dolphins’ skill players mostly had a horrendous Week 10, but many are in a clear bounce back spot in Week 11. The Jets have struggled in most phases this year, but have really struggled to limit the big plays in the passing game of late, allowing 9.7 yards per pass attempt over their last three games. Maybe it’s the slow game from last week (four catches for 64 yards) or the fact that we have such a low game total attached to this contest (43.5), but at well under $6,000, Jaylen Waddle certainly looks enticing given the matchup.

The rookie has only averaged 9.3 yards per catch, but he’s also dealt with quarterback issues all season. Waddle has a a very secure target share, as the Dolphins are essentially down to him and Albert Wilson ($3,100) at wide receiver, and Waddle has gone for over 80 yards in two of his last three games. This does feel like a player who is likely to find more big plays down the stretch, and with Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500) now off the injury report for Week 11, this could be a spot against a bad secondary, where those big plays develop. Waddle should be high on your list of value targets in tournaments for Week 11.

Just Missed: A.J. Brown ($7,700)


Tight End

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears vs. Baltimore Ravens ($3,400)

Picking on whoever is playing the Ravens at tight end has worked out well this season (unless you used Mike Geiskci last week), and I again like pursuing that strategy here. Baltimore has allowed the third-most touchdowns and third-most fantasy points to the position this year, and they have allowed four games of five catches with 40 or more yards to tight ends. At just 3.4k, 4-5 catches wouldn't be terrible for Kmet, but it is looking like bigger games than this could be on the horizon.

On top of continuing to play nearly every snap, Kmet hasn’t seen less than six targets in a game over the last four weeks. He’s averaging a decent enough 10.1 yards per catch (improved over last year), and despite not having a touchdown on the year, he leads all Bears receivers in red zone targets. Kmet’s usage means some positive touchdown regression is likely headed his way soon, and the matchup is too good to ignore. Taking the cheap salary looks like the correct move for Week 11.

Just Missed: Mike Gesicki ($5,200)


DST

Seattle Seahawks ($2,700) vs. Arizona Cardinals

This may not seem like such a hot spot to attack on paper as the Cardinals offense is fourth in points scored per game and ninth in total yards. Much of those stats came in between Week 1 and 7—aka pre Kyler Murray injury—so take them with a grain of salt. Murray has remained limited in practice this week and has a chance to start, but clearly isn’t going to be 100%, if he does play.

Seattle put up a strong fight on the defensive side last week, holding Green Bay to just 17 points, and they’ve been far more productive for fantasy purposes at home, averaging 7.0 DKFP in Seattle vs. 3.8 on the road. Seattle has also stiffened against the run of late and have allowed just 3.4 yards per carry in their last three games. This is a must win game for Seattle, and even if Colt McCoy (chest - questionable) starts, they’re not likely to get a ton of respect in the DFS streets. At well under 3k, the Seahawks set up as a proper low-owned, low-price fantasy DST to shoot for the moon with in a matchup with the suddenly eroding Cardinals.

Just missed: Cincinnati Bengals ($2,800)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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