Week 11 is here in the building! The board is much more appealing than we’ve seen over the past two weeks, so let’s dive right into it.
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Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite
Cleveland Browns (-11; -525) vs. Detroit Lions (+385)
Betting trends:
Browns 2021 home record: 3-2
Browns 2021 home record when favored: 3-2
Browns 2021 ATS record: 5-5
Browns 2021 ATS record when favored: 2-3
Lions 2021 road record: 0-4-1
Lions 2021 road record as underdogs: 0-4-1
Lions 2021 ATS record: 5-4
Lions 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 5-4
This feels like quite a big spread for a Lions team that has covered more often than not this season. The Lions have literally covered and then not covered in consecutive weeks the entire season. If you follow that trend, this would be a week where they DON’T cover, after doing so in a tie game against the Steelers. You’ll also notice the Browns have not been strong against the spread when favorites this season, going just 2-3. As favorites, they failed to cover against the Texans (-13.5), Cardinals (-3) and Steelers (-5).
While the Lions continue to search for that elusive first win, they have covered 55% of the time. Right now, the question is, who will be under center? Jared Goff ($5,100) has been sidelined this week due to an oblique injury, which means Tim Boyle ($4,000) could start after being activated off the IR. While the Browns have been dealing with a brash number of injuries, their secondary is not been one of them. The Browns defensive numbers plummeted after the Patriots picked them apart last week, as they averaged over 10 yards per pass attempt. No team has been in double-digits against this Browns team. Other than the Pats, only two teams have averaged over 7.8 YPA. Boyle would likely lead to a lot of running, screen passes and check downs.
While I think the Lions first win is in reach, this does not feel like the week to be looking for it. If Goff is in, I do think the Lions can cover this +11 spread. The Lions are 2-1 ATS as dogs by at least 10 points this season.
Other notable favorites: Tennessee Titans (-435; -9.5) vs. Houston Texans (+330)
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Dallas Cowboys (+120) at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5; -140) Over/Under: 56.5
Betting trends:
Cowboys 2021 road record: 3-1
Cowboys 2021 road record as underdogs: 2-1
Cowboys 2021 Over/Under record: 5-4
Cowboys 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 1-2
Chiefs 2021 home record: 3-2
Chiefs 2021 home record as favorites: 3-2
Chiefs 2021 Over/Under record: 5-5
Chiefs 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 5-5
This total is massive and has been going up all throughout the week. As recent as Monday, this game total was sitting at 53.5. Since Wednesday, it hasn’t been lower than 55 and has touched as high at 57. I think we get to 57 once again but would be shocked if we get anything higher than that. These teams have combined to go 10-9 on the over but are a combined 1-5 in their last three games.
I don’t think enough people give credit to how good the Cowboys are are defensively. We haven’t seen a QB throw for more than 249 passing yards in four straight weeks and have only allowed four passing touchdowns in that span. CB Anthony Brown specifically, according to Pro Football Focus, is one of the top rated corners in coverage. The Boys also feature a fantastic pass rush, which could be a big factor in this game, seeing as Patrick Mahomes ($7,600) has been under pressure on 33.1% of his dropbacks. In that scenario, he’s averaging 6.5 YPA, five of his 10 interceptions and a 61.5% adjusted completion percentage. That said, the Chiefs are still averaging 26.2 points per game, which ranks them 10th in the league.
I think this game does have a chance to go under. I would hate betting it and would not want to sweat this one out but the defense on the Cowboys side is my reasoning. I think this total is gotten too inflated and is a bit of an overreaction to the Chiefs dominant victory last week against the Raiders. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw something like a 30-24 game, which would take us close to the total but just miss it. The Cowboys are also throwing the ball just 56% of the time, which is on the lower spectrum of the league. I simply think we have more reasons to like the under than we do the over in this spot.
Other notable total: Cincinnati Bengals (-1; -115) at Las Vegas Raiders (-105) O/U 50.5
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NFL Week 11 Betting Splits
These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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NFL Betting Trends
This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.
Teams Against the Spread:
Best Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 5.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 1.3 |
| New England Patriots | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 3.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 2.4 |
Worst Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 | -7.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | -2.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 6-10 | -0.6 |
| New York Jets | 6-10 | -4.3 |
| New York Giants | 6-10 | -2.5 |
Teams Over/Under Records:
Best Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| New York Jets | 10-6 | 4.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 1.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8-7-1 | -0.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | -1.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-8 | 0.4 |
Worst Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | -3.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-10-1 | -3.3 |
| New York Giants | 5-10-1 | -4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | -2.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-10 | -2.8 |
Target Report
Target Report
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | MIN | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | KC | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | PIT | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | HOU | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | LAR | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | TB | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | CIN | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | NE | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | PIT | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | CIN | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs, $7,200 — I mentioned earlier that I thought his game had a good chance of going under. Maybe I’m wrong and that would be ok. Regardless on if the total hits the over or not, you cannot deny that the Cowboys and Prescott are in one of the best matchups of the week. This Chiefs defense is one of the most generous in the league. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 23.5 DKFP, 266 passing yards, 8 YPA and 17 passing touchdowns. Even with Dak not using his legs like we’ve seen in the past, he’s still averaging 24 DKFP on the season. That’s because of how good he’s been through the air. His 70.3% completion percentage is the second best in the league while his 77.1% adjusted completion is 9th. With an average of 8.2 YPA, Dak is going down field at a very high rate. He’s also ranked in the top 10 in multiple categories when passing 20+ yards, which include five of his 20 touchdowns. He should have his way with this Chiefs secondary in Week 11.
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs, $7,600 — This is the most expensive salary we’ve seen Lamb all season long. Someone who started the season at $5,700, it’s been a slow climb for Lamb, who has solidified his spot as the WR1 on this team. He’s coming off one of his best games of the season last week against the Falcons, where he caught six of his seven targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Now, he faces a Chiefs secondary that has been scored on 11 times by opposing receivers. In coverage, Lamb is going to see CB Rashad Fenton, who has been targeted against 25 times, allowing 16 receptions and 8.5 YPC. It’s one of the tougher matchups in this game, but the volume Lamb is receiving is quite high. He’s had at least six targets in five straight games, topping out at 11 two weeks ago.
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