The NFL is seemingly getting less and less predictable by the week, and we’re seeing it in the results. With really tough betting cards, along with the arrival of basketball season. I’ll be treading lightly on the NFL cards until further notice. I’ve only locked in one NFL play so far, but am writing up everything I’m considering. Per usual, anything I lock in will be posted to Twitter.
Let’s dive into some plays on DraftKings Sportsbook!
While I will have other sports betting related content throughout the week, including best bets articles for both MNF and TNF each week (along with CFB best bets), this article will be where all my best bet wagers, along with unit size live on a weekly basis.
For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow. I’ll usually come back with some additional plays as the week goes on in this article, including some player props over the weekend.
MIA -3 (-115) — 1 unit
Not much jumping out to me for sides this week. We’ll see about adding anything, but I’m much more excited about getting in on a couple of futures. That said, I’m not going to pass up on fading Joe Flacco and this Jets defense.
The Dolphins are nothing special on offense, but New York has surrendered 175 points over its last four games. Miami will fall backwards into some points in this game. Will Flacco be able to keep up? Who the heck knows why the Jets are turning to the only option on their roster that doesn’t have any chance to develop into a long-term option at QB, but here we are.
Miami’s defense looked significantly better in Week 10, and is both developing as a unit, and getting healthy at the right time. With a long week coming off a TNF victory, I like Miami to get the road win. Yes, we’re laying points with a road team that’s been a letdown this season, but I prefer to think of this as fading the Jets at a short number. This is bouncing around from 3 to 3.5, but I think getting -3 in should be obtainable.
KC Win AFC West (-110) — 2.5 units
As Dave Sharapan called it on the Unreasonable Odds podcast — “This is the best bet of the NFL season.”
While I’m honored, I don’t know if I can completely agree. But it is a heck of a play at this stage of the season. After all the lows and struggles the Chiefs have had this season, here they are, sitting in first place in the division entering Week 11. But instead of being the -275 favorites they were prior to Week 1, we now have them as a pick’em against the rest of the division. I’ll side with Mahomes finishing strong, and this defense showing improvements to get it done.
The Chargers are really the only threat here, and do have a slightly easier schedule. The head to head in Los Angeles will likely mean a lot here, but I feel KC will have the momentum going into that one, plus revenge on its mind. Just like a classic Chiefs comeback in-game, I think we see them make a comeback this season to grab the division. Just like we all throught preseason.
Matt Judon DPOY (+4000) — 0.25 units
Just a little sprinkle on this red-hot Patriots team, putting up tremendous defensive numbers. Judon is on pace to have more sacks than any player under Bill Belichick with the Patriots, and has been a massive impact on this defense. I think at this point this number should just be way shorter, and we’ll see it come down in coming weeks. If it loses it loses, but this would be nearly a risk-free play to bag 10 units here. I’ll take my shot.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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