Sometimes lines are just too good not to bet and that’s kind of the case we have with the Avalanche tonight. Despite the Avalanche outscoring their opponents 17-5 in their last three games—and the Kraken losing five in a row—this moneyline is actually quite close tonight. Maybe the Kraken aren’t as bad as their recent record indicates but they’re getting no help in net from Philipp Grubauer, who faces his old club and brings an abysmal .877 save percentage into this game. On the other end, Darcy Kuemper has now posted a save percentage of .930 or better in each of his last three starts. The Avs are rolling and undervalued tonight.
Top Line Stack
Winnipeg Jets at Vancouver Canucks
Pierre-Luc Dubois ($5,500) — Kyle Connor ($7,600) — Blake Wheeler ($5,200)
The Jets played last night in Edmonton, but should be revved up to avoid back-to-back losses after an OT loss. This line has produced five goals for them over the last four games and faces a Vancouver team who ranks fifth-worst in goals against per game and last in penalty kill.
While either of the Jets’ top-six lines could go off in a spot like this, paying up for as much of their first line power-play as possible is really the best play against such a weak special teams unit. These three have the best correlation of the Jets’ top-six as they generally stay together on the power play as well. From a value standpoint, Pierre-Luc Dubois at under $6K really stands out. He’s turned his career around with the Jets this season and is averaging 4.3 shots on goal over his last five games, and is just under a point per game pace on the season.
While many will choose to use both Dubois and Connor, a big night from this line will also likely drag the semi-struggling Blake Wheeler into relevance as well. He’s not overly expensive but certainly capable of a multi-point game in a spot like this considering the opponent. It’s a short slate, so don’t be afraid to pile it on with the Jets, who severely out-match the Canucks in most phases.
Superstar to Target
Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche at Seattle Kraken ($8,300)
Rantanen is playing out of position for the Avalanche with Nathan MacKinnon out but has remained a solid fantasy play at center. He comes into this game with six points in his last three outings and has looked like a solid distributor of the puck with three assists in that span as well. It’s possible that Rantanen may even be a little undervalued as his playmaking ability may even be heightened with the move to center, leading to more multi-point game opportunities.
The opportunity for such a night is certainly good against the Kraken as well, who rank second to last in goals against on the season and haven’t been able to limit high quality scoring chances, or get any help from their goaltenders. Rantanen feels like the proper way to start lineups today, and may not even be overly popular as DFS players flock to the cheaper Nazem Kadri ($6,000).
Value on Offense
Nils Höglander, Vancouver Canucks vs. Winnipeg Jets ($3,500)
The Jets are on a back-to-back and will be starting a backup netminder, so when looking for value I’d rather look at the Canucks’ forwards over the Kraken’s. Nils Hoglander has been skating in a top-six role next to Bo Horvat for the Canucks of late and has been very productive for them, despite the team’s overall struggles. The Swede has averaged 3.0 shots on goal this season and also gets us some power-play exposure against a bottom-five penalty-kill in the Jets. He’s a solid target for people who need a cheap forward to round out lineups.
Eric Comrie, Winnipeg Jets at Vancouver Canucks ($7,800)
It’s always tempting to grab an underdog goalie on a small slate and hope he goes off for great leverage in big fields, but we do have two solid favorites in the Jets and the Avalanche, who are taking on two of the worst defensive teams in the league. Eric Comrie has also proven he’s no slouch as a backup netminder and comes in having posted a save percentage of .935 or better in three of his four starts this season. Vancouver ranks sixth-worst in goals per game and in power-play efficiency, so Comrie could easily add to his stats tonight. Given the two-game slate, he’ll likely be a popular play but makes for a solid value option for core/cash lineups.
As for GPP lineups, the Canucks and Kraken haven’t decided on starters yet but Seattle’s starter likely could have minuscule ownership in this spot for a two-game slate. With Colorado players all likely being wildly popular, the game theory/galaxy brain play for big fields today is to go after whoever starts for the Kraken—Philipp Grubauer ($7,100) or Chris Driedger ($7,100).
Value on Defense
Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets at Vancouver Canucks ($4,500)
With the Canucks on tap tonight, the Jets’ top-three defensemen should all be considered as solid values. Morrissey has been the most consistent of the group as he’s averaging 3.37 blocked shots + shots on goal per game but has also averaged 0.5 points per game on the season. Morrissey’s three power-play goals leads the defensemen on the Jets and he is, of course, facing the team with the worst penalty-kill in the league.
There’s not much to differentiate when talking about the Jets’ top three (Morrissey, Pionk and Schmidt) but Morrissey does stand out as the one with slightly better upside, and is also the cheapest of the group, by far. Taking the value with Morrissey tonight gives you good upside and more exposure to a Jets power-play that could go off in this spot.
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche at Seattle Kraken ($6,500)
If we like the Avalanche’s offense to keep pouring it on tonight, going with their best offensive catalyst on defense is certainly something we should be interested in. It’s been a group effort for the Avalanche defensemen—who have all been stuffing the stat sheet of late—but Cale Makar is still their primary quarterback on the first power-play unit. He’s gone a little bit overlooked due to the hot play of Devon Toews and Samuel Girard, but is averaging just under a point-per-game this season and is in a good spot against a weak goaltender and a team who is just middling on penalty-kill efficiency.
You can certainly choose to play more than one Colorado defenseman tonight, but Makar still brings the best pure fantasy ceiling of the group and may bring lower ownership as well, with most DFS players flocking to the cheaper Avs plays on defense.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat. (CT).
21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.