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There is a free $5K Sportsbook Pool for NFL Week 11. You have to pick each of the games on Sunday against the spread, and the higher you finish on the leaderboard, the more money you earn.
Let’s take a look at all the contests slated for Sunday, including my five personal favorites.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
The Pick: Vikings +1.5
The Packers are small road favorites in this matchup, and that’s justified based on their records. The Packers are currently sitting at 8-2, while the Vikings are just 4-5.
However, some of the advanced metrics suggest these two teams are actually somewhat even. The Packers have a Pythagorean Win Expectation of just 6.1-3.9, while the Vikings are at 4.7-4.3. Meanwhile, the Vikings actually own a slight edge over the Packers in terms of Football Outsiders DVOA.
The Packers are also dealing with some key absences in this contest. Jaire Alexander remains out of the lineup, and he’s one of the best cornerbacks in football. He’ll be joined on the sidelines by Aaron Jones, and Allen Lazard is also doubtful. That’s going to leave the Packers shorthanded on both sides of the ball, so I don’t think the Vikings deserve to be underdogs in this matchup.
New Orleans Saints (-0.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Pick: Eagles +0.5
The Saints are another team dealing with some crucial injuries. Jameis Winston was already down for the season, and Taysom Hill is currently questionable vs. the Eagles. Trevor Semien has served as the Saints’ starting QB even with Hill active recently, but losing him takes one dimension away from their offense. Additionally, Alvin Kamara will miss his second straight game, and Kamara is one of the top offensive weapons in all of football.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off one of their best performances of the season last week vs. the Broncos. They recorded a 30-13 victory, rushing for more than 200 yards. Rookie wide receiver Devonta Smith also caught two touchdowns, so their offense was clicking.
The sharps also seem to be backing the Eagles in this spot. They’ve received 59% of the spread dollars on just 36% of the bets, which is one of the largest discrepancies of the week. That’s pushed this spread to Eagles -2.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, so we’re getting some spread value as well.
Cincinnati Bengals (-0.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Pick: Raiders +0.5
I think the Raiders make for a very appealing buy-low target this week. They were demolished by the Chiefs last week, but there’s no shame in losing to Kansas City. The Chiefs haven’t been the same juggernaut this year that they’ve been in the past, but they’re still one of the best teams in football.
They’ll have a much more manageable matchup this week vs. the Bengals, who are one of the more overrated teams in football. They’ve lost two straight games, a three-point loss vs. the Jets and a 25-point loss vs. the Browns, so I’m not sure what they’ve done to deserve being a road favorite. DVOA suggests that the Raiders are the better team, so I believe they should be favored in this matchup.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-0.5)
The Pick: Seahawks -0.5
This one is pretty simple for me. Kyler Murray is currently listed as questionable, and head coach Kliff Kingsbury told reporters that Murray is a game-time decision. However, I’d be surprised if he ends up playing. The Cardinals are on bye next week, and it makes no sense to play Murray if he’s at less than 100%. The team is in great shape to make the playoffs – they’re tied for the best record in the NFC – so the health of their star quarterback should be their top priority. The fact that DeAndre Hopkins has already been ruled out is another factor that pushes me toward Murray sitting.
You can make the case that the Seahawks are the correct side even if Murray is active. The Seahawks are listed as slight favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, and Russell Wilson is historically 6-3 against the spread as a home underdog. Wilson is also coming off a loss, and he’s 27-14-4 against the spread following a loss.
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
The Pick: Chiefs -2.5
Are the Chiefs back? To quote the legendary John Wick, “Yeah, I’m thinking that they’re back.” The Chiefs’ defense has quietly shown plenty of signs of improvement of late, allowing 17 points or fewer in four of their past five games. Their bigger issues have been on offense, but I have zero concerns about their offense long-term. Patrick Mahomes is still one of the best quarterbacks in football, and Andy Reid is one of the best offensive coaches in the league.
If the Chiefs’ defense can get a few stops vs. the Cowboys, I’m expecting the offense to keep up their end of the bargain. This could be one of our last opportunities to buy low on the Chiefs, so I’m looking to take advantage.
Here’s who I’m targeting for the rest of the Sunday games. Remember, we’re looking to beat the competition and climb up the leaderboard, so I’ll be looking to gain leverage on the field and fade the public in situations where I don’t see a huge edge on the spread.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Pick: Bills -6.5
Pick: Panthers -1.5
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-10.5)
Pick: Texans +10.5
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns (-10.5)
Pick: Browns -10.5
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: 49ers -5.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Pick: Chargers -3.5
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