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NFL Picks Fantasy Football Values: Top DraftKings DFS Bargain Plays for Week 9

Stan Son goes position-by-position to find the best affordable plays for this week’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Week 9, the halfway point of the season. Time indeed does fly fast when you’re having fun. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games on the main DraftKings NFL slate with an O/U of at least 50 points this week - MIN/BAL (50), LAC/PHI (50.5) and GB/KC (55.5). There are two games with a spread of more than 10 points - DAL (-10) over DEN and BUF (-14) over JAX.

Eight games kick off at 1 p.m. ET while three games are in the afternoon window. Why? Anyways, let’s dive into the cheaper end of the player pool and find some bargain options for Week 9.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


QUARTERBACK

($6,000 and under)

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Giants, $5,900 – Outside of a two-game span, Carr has scored at least 20 DKFP in every other game. He’s thrown for over 300 yards with two touchdowns in all those contests. Now he gets a matchup against a Giants team that is 16th in pass defense DVOA. While they are eighth in adjusted sack rate, PFF has the unit graded as the 21st best coverage group.

This game has a healthy total of 47.5 points with the Raiders favored by three points on the road. While both teams are in the bottom third for offensive pace of play, they are 11th and 12th in passing rate.


RUNNING BACK

($5,000 and under)

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs, $4,600 – This game has the highest total on the slate, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, at 55. Over the last two weeks, though, the Chiefs have scored three and 20 points against the Titans and Giants. It’s within the range of outcomes that the Packers’ defense stymies the Chiefs once again, which would likely provide more rushing attempts against the 31st rush defense DVOA unit in the league. This game could also be a shootout with both teams going back and forth. Regardless of the game script, the rushing game should be effective and utilized often, as the Packers are sixth in rushing offense according to PFF.

Dillon has three games with double-digit carries and is coming off a 16-carry, 78-yard performance. He had four red-zone carries and has 12 on the season. Unfortunately, his role in the passing game is limited, but he did have one game in which he caught four of four targets for 49 yards and a touchdown. You’re hoping for double-digit carries against a soft rush defense with converted opportunities in the red zone.


WIDE RECEIVER

($5,000 and under)

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Giants, $4,800 – Renfrow is a low-ceiling player as he’s a slot receiver with a 6.7 aDOT. That said, he has at least five targets in every game with three games with eight and a high of nine. He’s scored double-digit DKFP in six of seven games. He does have seven red-zone targets on the season and the matchup is a good one as he will primarily be matched up against Darnay Holmes, who is rated below 50 on PFF.

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings, $4,000 – The Vikings are much improved on defense this season, as they are third in pass defense DVOA after being 14th last season. Defending this Ravens offense is a unique undertaking, though. Since Lamar Jackson ($7,300) always needs to be accounted for and the run game has so many options, that leaves plenty of one-on-one matchups in the secondary. With Mark Andrews ($5,500) and Marquise Brown ($6,000) taking most of the attention from defenses, Bateman should have plenty of opportunities to make plays. He’s received six targets in both games this season.

Jamal Agnew, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills, $4,300 — The Bills are favored by 14 points, so there should be plenty of passing for the Jaguars in this one. Agnew is a slot receiver like Renfrow and has the same 6.7 aDOT. Over the last three weeks, he’s received eight, six and 12 targets and converted those into six, five and six receptions for 41, 78 and 38 yards with one touchdown. That’s been good for 10.9, 12.8 and 15.8 DKFP. He has three red-zone targets over that span.


TIGHT END

($4,000 and under)

Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills, $3,400 – The Bills have the top-ranked pass defense and they are fourth in DVOA against tight ends, so the matchup is a difficult one. The spread is 14 points in favor of Buffalo, though, so volume trumps matchup in this scenario. The Jaguars will likely have to pass, and pass, and pass to try and be competitive. Arnold will likely be extremely popular, despite the $600 price increase, especially since he hauled in eight of 10 targets for 68 yards last week, so there is merit to fading him if the projected ownership levels get too high.

Tommy Sweeney, Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,100 – With Dawson Knox injured, Sweeney played in 82% of the snaps last week. He only caught three of four targets for 30 yards, which translated to six DKFP, but he’s going to be on the field a ton and the Jaguars are 31st in DVOA against tight ends.


DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

($2,800 and under)

San Francisco 49ers DST vs. Arizona Cardinals, $2,800 – None of the cheap defenses stood out to me. Atlanta is popping in the projections and they will likely be very popular after the Jameis Winston news, but I’m just not feeling them, even though they are cheap. They don’t get pressure and Sean Payton will likely be extremely conservative and attack the 25th rush defense DVOA instead. So, the 49ers it is for me, even though they are 26th in adjusted sack rate. They know this Cardinals offense very well and have held them to fewer than 20 points in each of the last two games. Over the last five games, the 49ers have two sacks in every game and a total of 14 with four fumble recoveries and two interceptions.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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