There are four teams on bye this week, so no D’Andre Swift, Alex Collins, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Gibson, or JD McKissic.
There are still plenty of good options, though, spread throughout the salary structure. We’re starting to get a good idea of some of the best matchups to attack and how workloads will be distributed. Listed below are the RBs that I think will return the best value at their price point, whether as studs or value plays, and their opportunity projections are also included.
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Studs
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons, $8,200
I’ve seen the Atlanta defense popping due to the Jameis Winston injury I assume. If they are going to be popular, that just makes me like Kamara that much more. Sean Payton will likely go ultra-conservative now and feed his main man, Kamara, who has received 10, 20, 16, 26, 24, eight and 20 carries on the season. He exceeded 15 carries only twice last season. Atlanta is 25th in rush defense DVOA so Payton is going to travel the path of least resistance. Kamara has 22 red-zone carries and we know what he can do in the passing game. He has 37 targets on the season with a 10-catch for 128 yards and a touchdown game on the resume. He also has seven red-zone targets. Talent? Check. Opportunity? Check. Matchup? Check.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 16.8 attempts
Receiving: 5.7 Targets; 4.3 Receptions
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles, $7,900
Ekeler has had two duds this season, the opener when he didn’t receive a target and two weeks ago when the Ravens shut down the Chargers' offense. Outside of those two games, Ekeler has been one of the best backs in the league, scoring at least 20 DKFP in every game with two above 30. He has only one game with more than 15 rushes but he’s scored five touchdowns on the ground and has one game with over 100 yards. It’s in the passing game where Ekeler provides the most value, as he’s received at least five targets in every game but the opener, with one with 10 targets. He’s scored three touchdowns through the air and tallied at least 50 yards in four games. Ekeler has 22 rushes and five targets in the red zone. The Eagles are 22nd in rush defense DVOA.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 13.4 attempts
Receiving: 7.2 Targets; 5.5 Receptions
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos, $7,000
Elliott is coming off a game in which he scored 11.3 DKFP. Prior to that, he produced 18.9, 28.2, 23.2 and 26.6 DKFP. He has two games with at least 20 carries and two games over 100 yards. He’s scored five touchdowns on the ground. The passing game involvement hasn’t been robust but he does have one game with seven receptions on nine targets for 50 yards. Elliott has 21 rushes and six targets in the red zone. He now gets a matchup as a 10-point home favorite against a Broncos team that just traded away Von Miller and is 27th in rush defense DVOA.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 15.6 attempts
Receiving: 4.8 Targets; 3.7 Receptions
Values
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans, $5,800
This isn’t a smash play by any means because there are some uncertainties regarding his role and game plan for the Dolphins. Gaskin was in on only 58% of the snaps last week as Salvon Ahmed had 23% and Patrick Laird received 14%. Gaskin hasn’t received over 15 carries in a game once this season, and while has been involved in the passing game, the targets have been all over the map, from zero up to 10. The Dolphins also pass at the second-highest rate while the Texans are 31st in rush defense DVOA. Gaskin has 10 rushes and five targets in the red zone so he can smash if the Dolphins run the ball, but the Dolphins could also pass the ball and/or Ahmed or Laird could vulture the touchdowns.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 12.8 attempts
Receiving: 4.7 Targets; 3.6 Receptions
AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs, $4,600
The Chiefs are 29th in rush defense DVOA. End of analysis! The production and opportunities have been all over the map for Dillon. He has three games with double-digit carries but he had three attempts for six yards in a game that the Packers had no problems winning. He has two games with zero targets in the passing game and one game with four that he turned into four catches for 49 yards and a touchdown. In the red zone, he has 10 carries and two targets on the season. The Packers have this Aaron Jones ($7,200) guy so the opportunities will always be inconsistent but the matchup is a fantastic one.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 10.6 attempts
Receiving: 2.0 Targets; 1.5 Receptions
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