All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
We got beat up pretty good on Monday, primarily thanks to the Blazers inability to cover +3.5 against a Philly squad that lost Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris. With a bad NFL Sunday, I might just take Tuesday off to get reset for the rest of the week and an NFL board that’s jumping out to me. But a couple spots in NBA do pop, especially now that we’re two weeks into the season. We have the data to start going into some trends, which have been kind to us in past seasons.
Dallas is off to a solid 4-2 start to the season, but they haven’t done well against the number at all — just 2-4 ATS, failing to cover by eight points per game. The Mavs also haven’t faced the best competition so far, getting all four wins over teams that don’t project to make the playoffs. Their two losses were against playoff teams from last season, falling by a combined 57 points.
Then we have the Heat, who have gotten off to a terrific start with their new acquisitions. Miami is 5-1 SU/ATS, winning and covering all three road games. The Heat are covering by 13.8 points, and outscoring opponents by an average of 17 points per. Unlike Dallas, Miami has defeated some fringe playoff teams, and also been at its best against the elite teams in the east. This is just backing the much better team at a short number.
If I do wind up betting this game, I’ll probably be more invested in the first quarter than the full game. Miami hasn’t been getting these early wins by being tested in crunch time, its jumping out to monster leads to start this game. The Heat are 5-1 1Q ATS, covering the quarter by an insane 10.8 points on average.
Then you have Dallas, which has basically been the opposite. The Mavs are just 1-5 1Q ATS, failing to cover by 3.7 points per first quarter. Dallas has been slightly better at home, but it hasn’t mattered much where Miami is playing, it comes out at a blistering pace. I like the Heat for the game, but they almost certainly put themselves in position to win by continuing to come out fast against a sluggish team out of the gates.
Not much on the board for this NBA Tuesday. We have five games, and three spreads floating around double-digits, with the favorites some of the worst ATS teams in the NBA. The fifth game on the board is this one, with Milwaukee a short favorite in Detroit, but due to injuries. Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez are all out, and Donte DiVincenzo still isn’t healthy.
Allen’s been starting for the Bucks, averaging 13.7 points in 29.1 minutes per game, but since the Bucks have been losing bodies, we’ve seen more opportunities. Allen has games of 18 and 19 points in his last four, including 18 points on a season-high 14 field goal attempts in 31 minutes with Middleton out on Monday. Allen was 5-for-10 from downtown in that game, and has made at least three triples in four straight games (five of his seven games this season).
Allen’s 23-of-62 from downtown in seven games, and should only see more volume with the Bucks this shorthanded against a bad team. I like the three-pointer prop the most, but if you don’t want to lay the juice, the points feel safe at a better price.
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