The last two weeks have been rough ones in the NFL, specifically this past Halloween Sunday. The frustrating part was getting some great closing line value on certain games and props, and still coming up short. But after a couple of boards I didn’t like too much, this Week 9 board is looking stronger to me — back to the bread and butter, which has been teasers.
Let’s dive into some plays on DraftKings Sportsbook!
While I will have other sports betting related content throughout the week, including best bets articles for both MNF and TNF each week (along with CFB best bets), this article will be where all my best bet wagers, along with unit size live on a weekly basis.
For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow. I’ll usually come back with some additional plays as the week goes on in this article, including some player props over the weekend.
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
NE -3.5 (-110) 2 units (played on 11/1)
I was able to snatch some Pats -3 (-120) on Monday, but a busy day left me getting to this article on Tuesday. Fortunately, DraftKings Sportsbook is still hanging a 3.5 here, while a lot of 4s are starting to pop up in the industry. Anything -3.5 or better works for me, regardless of who plays QB for the Panthers. Sam Darnold has been awful, and while I don’t hate P.J. Walker, he has to be considered a downgrade.
This should be a grinder, and the under is worth a look, even with some value gone now at 41. But the Patriots do seems to have some momentum heading into this one, and have no problem winning on the road so far. Carolina has been dreadful since the hot start. Two teams going in opposite directions. I like the Pats to find a way here, but it won’t be pretty. Something like a 19-13 game that we saw Carolina play last week, but on the losing end this time.
HEDGE — Was able to hedge out of this with Aaron Rodgers testing positive for COVID-19
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
GB ML (+100) 1.5 units (played on 11/2)
Trap spot. Bad value. Whatever. The Chiefs are not good right now, so I’ll fade them. We’ve been trying to identify where the bounce-back spot would be for Kansas City, but maybe it just isn’t coming. The Packers are red-hot right now, taking down the NFL’s last undefeated last week on TNF, getting a longer week to prep for their trip to Arrowhead Stadium.
Since the Week 1 dud to the Saints, the Packers have won and covered seven in a row — the longest ATS steak of Aaron Rodgers’ career! I have no doubt Rodgers will be able to have his way against the KC defense. But it’s offensively with the Chiefs where we have to just admit they don’t have it. Patrick Mahomes seems like he’ll continue to make mistakes, and he’s unable to get plays out of anyone but Tyreek Hill. Better than a pick’em price — I’ll take the far surperior team.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
UNDER 43 (-110) 1.5 units (played on 11/2)
This isn’t going to be your retro Drew Brees vs. Matt Ryan dome game. With Jameis Winston down for the season, New Orleans is on to Taysom Hill and/or Trevor Semien, which isn’t ideal. Simple handicap here, but it’s tough to see much scoring on either side. The Saints for obvious reasons given their QB situation, but the Falcons are in an awful spot too. Now down Calvin Ridley, this offense just put up 13 points in a divisional game at home against Carolina. New Orleans ranks fourth in points allowed, and has a top-5 overall defense. Tough to see many points going up on the board.
6-Point Teaser/Moneyline Parlay Pieces (all bets placed 11/2)
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams
BAL/LAR ML Parlay (-118) 2 units
MIA -0.5/LAR -1.5 6PT Teaser (-120) 1 unit
BAL PK/MIA -0.5/LAR -1.5 6PT Teaser (+160) 1 unit
The Dolphins are a fumble away from an 0-8 start, but they’ve been competitive in certain spots. Miami is at home here, which should be a decent advantage. The Dolphins rank higher on both the offensive and defensive end so far, and I think Miami’s defense is in a pretty solid position here. The Texans continue to sell off pieces at the deadline, but none of which were Deshawn Watson. Maybe this is a motivational spot for Tua Tagovailoa at home to put up a big game against the team that all the trade rumors were surrounding. Prior to scoring 22 points in the fourth quarter against the Rams to cover when the result of the game was already decided, Houston had scored a total of EIGHT points in its previous TEN quarters. That’s a streak that goes back to going scoreless in the fourth quarter against New England. Miami can get this done.
After backing the Vikings on SNF, it’s pretty easy to see why we’re going against them. Major issues on both sides of the ball, but Kirk Cousins just isn’t going to beat good teams. But I don’t want to overreact and fade the Vikings just from that pathetic performence. This is more about backing the Ravens. Baltimore is at home off a bad loss and off a bye, and should be 100% ready for this game. John Harbaugh is 9-5 ATS off a bye, so I don’t mind the points here. But going to play it safe.
The Rams is one of the more obvious spots of the week. Yes, Tennessee is 6-2, but they’re coming off the highs of wins over the Chiefs and then Colts in OT, and now lose their best player heading into a tough primetime road game. The loss of Henry can’t be overstated. Sure, RB is worth a point to the spread, but Henry is worth far more to how the Titans run their offense. The Rams should be jacked up for a big home game, particularly after the acquisition of Von Miller — even if he won’t have as large an impact as some think. Matt Stafford and this passing attack should have a field day, and it’s tough to see how Tennessee keeps up against this defense without Henry.
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