Most of Sunday’s betting action is focused on the NFL, but don’t forget about hoops! The NBA is offering up a five-game slate on Sunday, and the action gets underway at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite wagers for this slate on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Under 213.5 (-110)
We took a loss on the Sunday afternoon under last week, dropping it to just 2-2 for the year. Still, it remains a profitable endeavor long term. The under in games starting before 5 p.m. ET on Sundays has gone 380-317-12 since the start of the 2006 season, resulting in a return on investment of +6.0%. That may not sound like a lot, but a $100 bettor would be up nearly $4,300 by taking ever under over that time frame.
Additionally, this game features the Clippers, who have been the second-best defensive team in the league this season. They’ve allowed just 102.1 points per 100 possessions, which trails only the Warriors’ league-best mark of 99.4. The Mavericks could be without Luka Doncic once again – he’s currently questionable with ankle and knee injuries – and they will struggle to score the ball if he’s inactive.
Finally, the Mavericks have played at the ninth-slowest pace this season, so this matchup could feature fewer possessions than usual, as well. There’s plenty to like about the under here.
Bulls -5.0 (-115)
I’m all in on the Bulls. I’ve already bet them to win the Eastern Conference and the NBA Finals, and while both of those bets are optimistic, I do think they’re undervalued in both departments.
They’re much better than the Knicks, who are the definition of a mediocre basketball team. The Knicks rank 13th in Net Rating, outscoring their opponents by an average of +0.7 points per 100 possessions, while the Bulls rank fourth. The Bulls are excellent on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top seven in both offensive and defensive efficiency so far this season.
Offensively, the Bulls are led by the dynamic duo of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. Not only are both players excellent scorers – both players rank in the top five in points per game – but both players are incredibly efficient. LaVine is shooting 49.8% from the field and 40.3% from 3-point range, while DeRozan is shooting 48.8% from the field. Having your two top scorers be that efficient is extremely rare, and it makes the Bulls incredibly tough to stop defensively. Even if you can take away one of those options, the other is more than capable of picking up the slack.
Deandre Ayton over 11.5 rebounds (+105)
This sounds like a pretty big number on the surface, but I don’t think it’s high enough. Ayton has averaged more than 12 rebounds per game this season, and he’s done that in an average of just 30.2 minutes. Overall, his 20.8% rebound rate represents a new career-high, and it’s the sixth-highest mark in the entire league.
Ayton played in three games since returning to the lineup following a leg injury, and he’s pulled down at least 12 boards in all of them. The Nuggets aren’t a great matchup for rebounding – they rank 10th in team rebound rate – but they wouldn’t be nearly as good in that department if Nikola Jokic is ruled out. If Jokic is in, Ayton could play more minutes than usual for defensive purposes. It’s a win-win.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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