Doesn’t it feel like we’ve done this before? Maybe it’s just because the New York Giants and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers get a lot of primetime action — or because we literally had this exact matchup on Monday Night Football last season — but I could’ve sworn I’d already watched the Buccaneers trample the Giants back in, like, October. However, try as I might, there is no official record to validate my tired brain.
So, with that in mind, let’s break down this very familiar matchup from a Showdown perspective.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Leonard Fournette ($15,000 CP) - Here’s the fun thing about math: It always adds up. Take Fournette as a perfect example of this. The veteran is undisputedly the lead back on the Buccaneers. To wit, Fournette has logged at least a 60% snap share in five of Tampa Bay’s past six games. The Buccaneers also score a lot, as the team came into Week 11 averaging an NFL-best 5.8 red zone scoring attempts per home game. So, after seeing all this volume, it should come as no shock that Fournette has registered the seventh-most carries inside the 20 yard-line this season (26). The RB is always a threat to find the end zone and he should have little trouble doing so on Monday going up against a Giants D/ST ($2,800) that has been pathetic versus the run. New York enters this contest surrendering the second-most adjusted line yards per attempt (4.88) and the fourth-most DKFP to opposing backfields per contest. In fact, according to DVOA, no NFC team has been worse than the Giants at stopping the run in 2021. If you’re going to be bad, you might as well be the worst, right?
Chris Godwin ($14,100 CP) - There really isn’t a bad option in the Buccaneers’ passing attack — the direct result of Tom Brady ($11,200) leading the league in passing touchdowns (27) — however, I’m expecting a little regression from Mike Evans ($10,200) this week. Honestly, “little” might be underselling it. Despite catching only 10 passes in Tampa’s past three games, Evans has found the end zone five times. Five. Times. Now, the wideout is as big-bodied and skilled as they come, but I think we can all agree that that’s slightly insane production. Also, outside of simple normalization, it appears that Rob Gronkowski ($6,200; back) is set to return against the Giants, with his presence likely taking some high-leverage looks away from Evans. With all that in mind, let’s discuss Godwin’s role in that same three-contest span. Dating back to Week 7, it’s Godwin who leads his team in targets (31), receptions (23), receiving yards (308) and 100-yard receiving games (2). I’ll always side with the stability of volume over the unpredictability of touchdowns, especially considering Godwin’s about $1,000 cheaper than Evans on Monday evening.
FLEX Plays
Saquon Barkley ($7,800) - Obviously we have no real way of knowing how healthy Barkley’s ankle is, but it seems like he’s ready to go, and he should at least have fresh legs after five weeks off. In the three games prior to injuring himself in Week 5, Barkley played on 86.1% of the Giants’ offensive snaps while averaging 14.0 carries and 5.3 targets per game. The Buccaneers have one of the most-stout rushing defenses in football, yet it can’t be overstated just how rare that level of RB volume is in 2021. Simply put, Barkley is script-proof and this is the first time this season he’ll be priced below $9K, let alone $8K. I can’t resist.
Buccaneers D/ST ($5,200) - While Daniel Jones ($9,600) and the Giants have somewhat been able to limit the giveaways so far this season — at least compared to years past — I just can’t shake the image of the former first-round pick playing against the Rams back in Week 6. Jones had three interceptions and lost a fumble in that 38-11 defeat, struggling all game with a Los Angeles unit that boasts a similar level of talent to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have forced an opponent turnover on a very enticing 15.5% of their drives through 10 weeks, and Jones has tallied 36 fumbles and 27 interceptions in his 36 career games. Odds are good he’ll be forced into a couple mistakes in this one.
Fades
Kenny Golladay ($7,000) - At this point, I need to see a pulse from Golladay before I consider inserting him into a lineup. While it’s possible the former third-round pick was being eased back into action in Week 9’s victory over the Raiders, the Giants seemed more than content to cycle through wide receivers, with Golladay, Kadarius Toney ($6,800) and Darius Slayton ($3,200) all seeing exactly 31 snaps. Heck, even Collin Johnson ($200) logged 21 snaps, though the sophomore was unable to come up with a reception. Not helping matters was the fact that New York only used 11 personnel on 48% of their 60 offensive plays against Las Vegas — one of the lowest marks of any team in Week 9. I mean, it was Kyle Rudolph ($2,200) who led the squad in targets with five. Needless to say, this isn’t exactly a situation conducive to high-ceiling assets. I’d much rather spend down for Slayton than pay up for Golladay, if you’re even wanting any exposure to this positional grouping at all.
THE OUTCOME
As mentioned above, through four home games this season, the Buccaneers are averaging almost six red zone scoring attempts per game. That’s an almost unfathomable number and one that I severely doubt the Giants can keep up with. Tampa Bay is also 7-1 ATS in its past eight home games overall. I think they cover to finish out Week 11.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 30, New York 17
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (NYG vs TB)
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