clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

NFL Picks for Fantasy Football: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs, RB Touch and Target Projections for Week 12

Reid Fowler gives you his top DraftKings fantasy football picks at running back for this week along with their touch and target projections.

Hopefully, your bellies (and wallets) are full post-Thanksgiving, and you’re ready for Week 12. With only 10 games on deck for Sunday, it’ll be important who you roster at the RB position. Week 11 proved that one man, Jonathan Taylor ($9,100), stands alone at the top. Over his previous two games, Taylor has amassed 301 rushing yards on 53 attempts, six total TDs and 84 DKFP. He’s the most expensive RB on the DraftKings slate and gets the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are one of the most formidable defenses against the run.

There are two teams on their bye this week, the Chiefs and Cardinals, and four games not on the Sunday slate, which means key names like David Montgomery, D’Andre Swift, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard and Mark Ingram will not be available for Sunday’s contest.

Listed below are the RBs that I think will return the best value at their price point on DraftKings this week, whether as studs or value plays, and their opportunity projections are also included.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st+ToC Entry]


Studs

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, $8,200

Don’t worry about last week’s performance; we should feel confident in the rookie averaging 89.3% of the opportunity share, which ranks first at his position. Harris is running it just under 19 times a game and averages the second-most targets per game amongst all running backs (6.2/gm). These two teams met back in Week 3, and Harris finished as the RB1 overall, gaining 142 total yards and 28.2 DKFP. He also saw 19 targets in that game, which is unheard of, and probably won’t happen again. Still, the Bengals have struggled defending the pass to opponents’ RBs, giving up the most targets and receptions this season. Even if Najee’s 19-target game were cut in half, the Bengals would still be in the top 3 in targets for opposing RBs. Since Week 2, Harris hasn’t finished outside the top 14 at his position, and we could see a lot of the projected roster percentage gravitate towards the three names above him, potentially leaving the Steelers’ workhorse under-rostered in a plus matchup.

Projections
Rushing: 19 attempts
Receiving: 5 Targets; 4 Receptions

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles, $6,300

Jason Garrett is out as New York’s Offensive Coordinator, which means Saquon should be in our lineups. Former Cleveland Browns HC and Offensive Assistant Freddie Kitchens will probably take over as OC for the remainder of the season. While Kitchens isn’t much better, Barkley and this offense should see better days than Garrett’s uneventful offense. Monday night was Barkley’s first game back after being out since Week 5, and he admittedly said he needed to get back into game shape. We already have a road map of Barkley getting ramped up into playing form after a knee injury earlier this season. In Week 2, his second game after his injury last season, he only saw 15 opportunities but was on the field for 83% of the snaps. It’s not a sure thing that he’ll see the same usage, but he’s cheap enough to roster against an Eagles defense that has given up 27.2 DKFP to opposing backs this season.

Projections
Rushing: 15 attempts
Receiving: 5 Targets; 5 Receptions

Values

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams $5,900

The second-year back put in a respectable performance last week, finishing as RB14 with 15.7 DKFP; and he’s getting a $300 price decrease. The Packers and Vikings were part of a shootout, and Dillion’s peripheral statistics were promising in his first game as the starter, running 16 routes and getting an 18% target share on 78% of the snaps. He caught all six of his targets for 44 yards and now plays the Rams, who gave up over 137 yards rushing in two of the previous four games (Lions, 49ers).

Projections
Rushing: 16 attempts
Receiving: 4 Targets; 3 Receptions

Ty Johnson, New York Jets at Houston Texans, $4,300

The injury to Michael Carter opens the door for Johnson and Tevin Coleman ($4,000). We should be more interested in Johnson, who could handle around 40% of the early-down work and most, if not all, of the passing-down work. Last week, Johnson played 100% of the 2-minute drill and all of the long down and distance plays.

Projections
Rushing: 9 attempts
Receiving: 4 Targets; 4 Receptions

Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st+ToC Entry]



Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat. (CT).

21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.