Gobble, gobble. Full disclosure: I am Canadian. Well, I’m technically a dual citizen, but I’ve lived in Canada all my life and I consider Thanksgiving to be the second Monday of October. Still, while that usually coincides with some playoff baseball, nothing quite tops the annual three-game NFL slate on the final Thursday in November.
So, enjoy some turkey for me, and let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set a few lineups.
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QUARTERBACK
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints, $7,800 - Here’s the thing: With Dallas owning this slate’s highest implied point total by a wide margin, everyone is going to be using Dak Prescott ($6,900). The fact he’s $900 cheaper and that the Bills have had three terrible PR weeks doesn’t help, either. I’ve long been a believer that a contrarian Josh Allen is among the greatest gifts in DFS, so I’ll be partaking on Thursday. Allen’s averaging 27.3 DKFP per start dating back to Week 3 and the Saints D/ST ($2,900) was just gashed by Jalen Hurts. There’s a lot to like here.
Value
Trevor Siemian, New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills, $5,600 - Maybe I’m just afraid of endorsing Andy Dalton ($5,500), but Siemian’s been able to put up some numbers these past two weeks. Starting in place of the injured Jameis Winston (knee), Siemian’s actually scored the sixth-most DKFP since the the beginning of Week 10 (46.1), while also averaging a very respectable 0.58 DKFP per drop back. This is also simply an assumption on game script. I expect Buffalo to be able to score in this one, meaning Siemian should see some nice passing volume playing from behind.
RUNNING BACK
Stud
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, $6,000 - Montgomery’s produced two pretty underwhelming games since returning from short-term injured reserve; however, his fortunes should change against the Lions. Detroit’s surrendered the most DKFP per contest to opposing RBs, while Montgomery’s logged an eye-popping 90.1% snap share in his past two starts. That’s a marriage of volume and matchup that I simply can not pass up.
Value
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $5,600 - The whole context of this slate could change if Mark Ingram ($6,200; knee) is eventually ruled out — Tony Jones Jr. ($4,000) would immediately be a popular and viable value asset — but as it stands now, Pollard’s about as cheap as I’m willing to go at RB. You’re probably not looking at the highest ceiling with the Cowboys’ second-string back, yet he’ll likely play around 35% of the team’s offensive snaps and he should see 9-12 touches. On a team with an implied point total near 30, that’s not an awful role.
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WIDE RECEIVER
Stud
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints, $7,900 - If you’re rolling with Allen, don’t overthink the stack. Diggs has averaged 9.0 targets per game dating back to the beginning of Week 6, while the wideout owns the league’s fourth-highest red zone target share for the season as a whole (30.6%). It’s things like that that make Diggs scoring five touchdowns in his past five starts feel sustainable. Anyway, if Allen is going to hit his full upside on Thursday, Diggs is going to be involved.
Value
Tre’Quan Smith, New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills, $4,400 - Smith’s been on the field for over 90% of the Saints’ offensive snaps each of the past two weeks, and he leads all wideouts on the team with 15 targets in that span. If Siemian is truly going to be throwing the ball 35-plus times as I presented above, I’d have to assume Smith is looking at a minimum of six or seven targets. What more do you need this close to $4K?
TIGHT END
Stud
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears, $5,200 - No tight end in the league has a higher target share than Hockenson dating back to Week 6. Heck, among all skill-position players, Hockenson’s 26.8% figure is the ninth-best mark in football. The crazy part is that includes the 16-16 tie with Pittsburgh where the Iowa saw just a single target. However, to compensate, the TE has seen at least a 34% target share in the other two starts he’s made since Week 8. With Jared Goff ($5,100; oblique) expected to start, I truly believe Hockenson’s price tag is too low.
Value
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, $3,700 - You’ll probably want to pay up at tight end on this slate, but Kmet is in a decent spot. Prior to an ugly Bears performance against the Ravens this past Sunday, Kmet had racked up 20 targets in his past three games. You’d have to imagine his floor is much higher with Dalton replacing Justin Fields (ribs) under center this week, and the fact Detroit is allowing a league-worst 34.5 opponent points per home game this season doesn’t hurt his prospective value, either.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Stud
Bills D/ST, Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints, $3,100 - As much as I think Siemian can volume his way to a respectable showing, pass attempts are the key to a great fantasy defense, as well. Interceptions and sacks are the name of the game, and the Bills come into Week 12 forcing an NFL-high 2.4 turnovers per contest. Meanwhile Siemian threw two picks last week and was sacked four times this week before that. Buffalo can do some damage.
Value
Lions D/ST, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears, $2,400 - If I were writing this on my phone, I’d simply insert a shrug emoji here. The Lions defense is not good, but neither is the Bears offense. What more do you really want me to say? Chicago comes into this contest ranking third-worst in points per drive (1.48) and fourth-worst in yards gained per drive (28.9). Andy Dalton is starting at quarterback and Allen Robinson ($5,100; hamstring) is doubtful to suit up. Yuck.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (Thu)
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