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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 12 Top High-Upside DFS Targets, Sleepers

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be low-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


Stacks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts

Tom Brady ($7,600) — Chris Godwin ($7,000) — Rob Gronkowski ($4,400) — Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,600)

Considering they have averaged 33.5 points per game over their last six games, we should expect the Colts offense to put some pressure on the Buccaneers, who have averaged 42.5 pass attempts in five road games this year. The Buccaneers have a stout rush defense, though, and have allowed just four touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. As much as fading Jonathan Taylor ($9,100) feels like a nightmare waiting to happen, the Colts passing offense is in a better spot. Tampa has allowed an average of 2.0 passing touchdowns in its five road games, and Tampa Bay’s opponents have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game. This a great spot for the underpriced Pittman to tip the touchdown count back in his favour and his sentiment won’t be raging due to Taylor’s brilliance and the fact he’s posted two slow games in a row.

You could look to pair Pittman with the cheap Carson Wentz ($5,800), but I’d prefer an all out Tampa passing attack to round out this game stack. The Colts have operated as a traditional funnel to the pass all year, and have ceded the most passing touchdowns against through 11 weeks. Strong after the catch receivers like Deebo Samuel and Marquise Brown have eaten this secondary alive and Godwin certainly has the YAC ability replicate the big games those players put on this unit. Godwin comes in averaging 22.75 DKFP over his last four games and could even see a target bump as Mike Evans ($7,200; back) looks to be less than 100% at the moment.

I also love rounding out this stack with the classic Brady-to-Gronkowski connection. Any Evans injury issue could also slide more targets to Gronk, who looked healthy in his return last week and promptly made six catches on eight targets. As mentioned above, Brady could push for 50 pass attempts in this road matchup and the Colts have allowed the second-most receptions and touchdowns to opposing tight ends in 2021.

Just Missed: Joe Burrow ($6,200) - Ja’Marr Chase ($7,300) - Chase Claypool ($6,000)


Quarterback

Zach Wilson, New York Jets at Houston Texans ($5,100)

In our relentless search for a great, low-owned quarterback to build around in GPPs, why not target a game which features two of the worst defenses in the league? While many fantasy players seem likely follow this approach and roster Tyrod Taylor ($5,300), Wilson seems far more likely to get us 35-plus pass attempts (and potentially a 300-yard day). The Jets have averaged an insane 46 pass attempts over their last three games and take on a Houston defense that still ranks fifth-worst in yards per opponent pass attempt against.

The risk here isn’t with the matchup, though, it’s with the player and trusting that Wilson can at least be competent after a long layoff. The rookie hasn’t been great this year, but he will have an improved receiving core with Elijah Moore ($5,600) playing better. Houston will also make for the easiest defensive matchup of Wilson’s career from a DVOA and advanced metrics standpoint. With how much they have been throwing the ball, a cheap Jets stack has some appeal and Wilson will garner almost no ownership this week in GPPs.

Just Missed: Matthew Stafford ($7,100)


Running Back

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers ($5,600)

Much like last week’s fantasy hero, Austin Ekeler ($8,400), Gaskin acts as the do-it-all No. 1 running back for the Dolphins. Gaskin hasn’t been nearly as explosive as Ekeler this year in the big-play department, but he’s got almost the exact usage through 11 weeks as both a runner and receiver. This is all to say that a $5.6K salary looks very light for a player locked into such a script-proof role, and one who has averaged 18 caries over the Dolphins’ last four games.

Gaskin also might be in a better than advertised spot for fantasy purposes. The Carolina Panthers allowed Washington to average 4.8 yards per carry and score 27 points last week — and have allowed a touchdown to an opposing running back in five of their last six games. Gaskin’s cheap, provides a great floor and feels overdue for some big plays given how many touches he gets as a receiver and runner. Don’t be afraid of using the Dolphins starting running back in Week 12.

Just Missed: Elijah Mitchell ($5,400)


Wide Receiver

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals ($6,000)

The injury concern around Claypool didn't last long, as the second-year player returned to game action last week and promptly played on 91% of the snaps for the Steelers. He saw nine targets and went for 93 yards, but his day could have been bigger had he not be under thrown on a deep ball early in the game. The Steelers defense has been shambles of late and Ben Roethlisberger ($5,200) has now thrown the ball an average of 37 times over his last four games.

With Claypool’s volume and target share secure, a breakout is surely coming. Claypool is averaging 15.5 yards per catch and enters this week with just one touchdown on the year — a year after posting nine in his rookie season. The Bengals have not been great against the pass of late, allowing 8.5 yards per opponent pass attempt against in their last three games. A long Claypool touchdown (or two) wouldn't be shocking against this regressing pass defense.

Just Missed: Elijah Moore ($5,600)


Tight End

Evan Engram, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($3,800)

The Giants finally fired offensive coordinator Jason Garrett this week. That makes me bullish on a player like Engram, who is on the verge of setting career-lows in yards per catch and aDOT. The Eagles may be the perfect opponent to begin deploying Engram in a more aggressive role, too, as they’ve been the worst team at covering opposing tight ends this season.

Philadelphia has allowed an astounding 81% completion rate to opposing TEs, along with 15 red zone completions (the most in the league) on 18 red zone targets to the position. The Giants receiving core has suffered from poor play and injuries all year and this week both Sterling Shepard ($5,000; quad) and Kadarius Toney ($5,200; quad) are question marks. Engram should benefit from the coaching change and isn’t drawing much heat this week despite the great matchup. He’s a great value target in big GPPs for Week 12.

Just Missed: Noah Fant ($4,600)


Defense/Special Teams

Jaguars D/ST, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons ($2,200)

Matt Ryan ($5,500) is close to setting career-lows in nearly every statistical category this year. Atlanta’s offense is essentially just hoping that Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,500) can break them a big play and Patterson missed last week with an ankle issue and his status is unclear for Week 12.

The Jaguars are hardly world beaters themselves, but this unit has been much better at home and it comes in averaging 6.7 DKFP in Jacksonville versus 0.0 DKFP on the road. The Jaguars sack rate and turnover rate has also been significantly better at home and they now face a quarterback who has turned the ball over eight times in his last four games. The price here is a massive factor, too. The Jaguars aren’t projected as heavy chalky, yet at just $2.2K, they’re the cheapest D/ST on the main slate — where even an average game likely nets us around 3x value. Spend down here so you can pay up for those expensive game stacks in other places.

Just missed: 49ers D/ST ($3,100)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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