A rough two-week stretch has dropped my overall record for the season to 17-16 with my underdog picks. I’ll try to stay above .500 this week with the following three underdogs that might be worth taking a chance on.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots: Titans +6.5
The Patriots are red-hot heading into this matchup after winning five straight games. They’ve defeated some quality opponents, too, including the Chargers and Browns. Their defense has led the way, holding their opponents to under 10 points in three straight games.
The Titans had won six straight games heading into Week 11, but suffered an embarrassing loss to the Texans. They had defeated the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams in consecutive weeks heading into their contest with the Texans, so it was a classic case of playing down to their opponent. Not only have the Titans covered the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs, but they’ve won them all outright. While they might not win this contest, I like their chances of keeping things close. The Patriots like to run the ball, but they could be in trouble in that department given that the Titans have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game in the league.
Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams: Packers +1
A bye in Week 11 probably came at the perfect time for the Rams. They had lost two straight games and were dealt the tough news that wide receiver Robert Woods (knee) had been lost for the season. Not only did they get a chance to regroup mentally, but the week off also gave them added time to integrate the recently-signed Odell Beckham Jr. into their offense.
The problem for the Rams is they have to come back from the bye and travel to Green Bay to face the Packers, who are 4-0 at home this season. Going back even further, the Packers have won 10 of their last 11 games at home. A toe injury didn’t prevent Aaron Rodgers from throwing four touchdown passes against the Vikings last week, so look for the Packers to continue their success at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Steelers +4
It’s been a rough past two games for the Steelers. First, they tied the winless Lions. Then, after mounting a furious comeback in Week 11 against the Chargers to take the lead late in the fourth quarter, they ultimately lost. The good news was that they got back Ben Roethlisberger, who had missed the game versus the Lions while on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Prior to the Steelers last two games, they had won four straight. It’s also worth noting that in their last 14 games, the underdog has covered the spread 13 times. They have also won seven of their last eight road games against the Bengals. While the Bengals did dominate the Raiders last week, it came on the heels of back-to-back losses, one of which came against the lowly Jets. This could be a close contest between two AFC North foes.
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