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NASCAR Best Bets: Motorsports Picks, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix

Pearce Dietrich gives his top NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship, which starts on November 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET.

At all times, the first person is avoided. The most professional betting articles are objective and about the plays, not the player. However, after correctly picking the race winner again last week — raising the total to six wins in the last seven weeks and nine wins since this article was created late in the summer — it’s time to mention the player. I am the greatest NASCAR handicapper in the world. Not only did I hit last week, but I hit with a +4000 play. If my earnestness doesn’t sit well with you, then that’s because you are sitting on a fat wallet that got that way because of my picks.

Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Kyle Larson to Win (+190)

This is the final NASCAR Best Bets article of the season, so I am clearly breaking a lot of rules and writing conventions. However, after such a successful season, this article is guaranteed to be green lit in 2022. We’re printing more money than The Fed, and a lot of that is thanks to Kyle Larson. Sure, the return stinks this week, but at this point, he should have made the readers plenty of money that they don’t need to chase a longshot. Which is a very bad idea in this race.

Whether NASCAR allows the championship four to cheat, or out of respect, the non-championship competitors are deferential in their approach, the result is still the same. The Championship race is won by the championship contenders, and none of the championship four are long shots. If it’s big odds that you seek, then try something exotic or go crazy with the parlays. This is a wind down week for NASCAR betting.

Kyle Larson has never won at Phoenix, but the same can be said for nearly all of his victories this season. Larson has been locked in every week and crew chief Cliff Daniels brings fast race cars to every track. The Phoenix race in March was no different. The result does not show it, but Larson was one of the best drivers in the spring race. His seventh place finish may run contrary to that statement, but Larson was penalized three times during that race.

He was forced to start the race from the back of the field, but climbed to 14th before the competition caution. During that caution, he was penalized on pit road. On lap 37, he restarted in 32nd place and proceed to drive through the field again, closing the stage in ninth place. In stage 2, Larson was in second place before the cycle of green flag pits stop. During his stop, he earned another penalty and was forced to serve a pass-thru penalty and dropped to 26th place. Over the next 100 laps, he again rallied and made his way to second place. Unfortunately, during a lap 263 pit stop, he lost three spots on pit road. From there, during two short runs to close out the race, Larson was unable to gain on the leader and finished in seventh place. Just as one doesn't simply walk into Mordor, one does not drive through the field at Phoenix three times, but Larson did. He’s done those things all season.

Martin Truex Jr to Win (+450)

This article has been pretty obnoxious so far, time to tone it down. Is Martin Truex Jr a humble pick? Any blurb is humble as long as it does not read like it’s coming from a know-it-all running a victory lap. One thing that everyone knows is that that Martin Truex Jr has been the best high horsepower driver for the last five seasons.

When NASCAR limited the high horsepower package to short tracks and added an enormous spoiler, Truex was still the best. When NASCAR removed the spoiler, Truex was still the best. When Truex’s genius crew chief Cole Pearn quit NASCAR, in part due to the NASCAR executives’ capricious horsepower and downforce decisions, Truex was still the best.

Phoenix had always been a riddle for Truex. He was unstoppable at all of the other one-mile or shorter tracks, especially the flatter tracks and Phoenix features a flat, sweeping corner in turns one and two. However, until this season, Truex had not led more than 11 laps in a Phoenix race in nearly a decade (he led 29 in 2012 and 72 way back in 2007). That all changed in March under the direction of crew chief James Small.

The No. 19 JGR Toyota team had an adjustable plan. Early in the race, their setup was not working, and Truex got into the wall slightly. Before Stage 2, the team took an extended pit stop. Typically, long pit stops infer major changes and that a team is far off, but that was not the case. The team knew exactly what it was doing, and Truex’s car came to life.

The long pit stop buried Truex in traffic, but by the middle of the race he was in second place, and he would run one or two for the remainder of the laps. His overall stats are not great because his car did not have the proper set up for stage 1 and for half of stage 2, he was in traffic. However, if one were to only look at stats from the second half of the first Phoenix race, Truex would standout as the clear favorite to win the Championship.

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Ryan Newman Top 20 Finish (-110)

Does Newman deserve a ride in 2022? The DraftKings Sportsbook doesn’t seem to think so. He is basically a pick ‘em to finish inside the top half of the field in a Roush car. This looks like the end of the road for Newman, and if it is, he’s going to want to close out his career with at least a top-20 finish. If he is able to prolong the magic, and secure a ride for the 2022 season, then Phoenix will be a large part of that. This race will not erase the last two poor seasons, but a strong finish at Phoenix will go a long way during the offseason when he is searching for a ride and courting sponsors. This is Newman’s last chance to prove that he’s still got it, and he knows it.

All Joe Gibbs Racing Cars to Finish in the Top 10 (+450)

Kyle Busch doesn’t seem to need practice anymore, but he’ll take it. His complaint after failing to qualify for the Championship was that his cars have been off for the last couple of weeks. Phoenix practice will not only give Busch a chance to dial in his No. 18 JGR Toyota, but it will be valuable reps for Christopher Bell and his team. Similar to Busch, it doesn’t seem that Bell needs it, he was great at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series (2018 win) and earned a top 10 finish in the spring race while running 203 laps inside the top 10. Either way, practice for a team with deep resources cannot be a bad thing. As far as Martin Truex Jr and Denny Hamlin go, they’re battling for the Championship and will be in cars that are slightly faster than the rest of the non-championship participants (if you get what I’m laying down). Barring a wreck or terrible final pit stop, both should easily earn top-10 finishes.

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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.