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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 9

Stan Son gives his top studs and values at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Week 9. It’s time to shine and move that needle across the min-cash line. Which players will cross the goal line? Which will cause us to whine? Hopefully, I’m knowledgeable enough to call with that lifeline. The Lions, Seahawks, Buccaneers and Washington Football Team are on their bye. As a result, there are 11 games on the main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are two games with a total of at least 50 points — MIN-BAL (50) and LAC-PHI (50). There is only one team favored by at least 10 points — BUF-JAX (-14).

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]



Quarterback

Stud

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars, $8,200 — Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate and there’s risk of a good, not great game because the Bills should handle the Jaguars fairly easily. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Bills as 14-point favorites. Four weeks ago, the Bills throttled the Texans, 40-0, and Allen went 20-of-29 for 248 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while rushing six times for 41 yards. That translated to 21.02 DKFP. Good, not great. That scenario is well within the range of outcomes in this one.

That said, he has one of the highest ceilings at the position and has gone over 30 DKFP three times with a high of 40.22. The Jaguars are dead-last in both pass defense DVOA and adjusted sack rate. The Buffalo coaching staff usually travels the path of least resistance, so even if the Bills blow out the Jaguars in this one, Allen will likely have been the main reason why.

Other Option – Lamar Jackson ($7,300)

Value

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans, $5,800 — The path of least resistance is clearly on the ground for the Dolphins this week as the Texans are 31st in rush defense DVOA. Will Miami traverse down that path, though? On the season, they pass at the second-highest rate. Only the Buccaneers pass more. While the Football Outsider’s grades are decent for the Texans' pass defense, PFF has them 31st in coverage.

Tua has attempted 39, 40 and 47 passes since returning from injury and rushed four, four and three times. Until I see the Dolphins’ coaching staff “be like water” as the venerable Bruce Lee preached, I’m going to assume that they continue their pass-happy ways.

Other Option – Derek Carr ($5,900)


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Running Back

Stud

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons, $8,200 — Kamara has rushed at least 19 times in a game five times this season. He accomplished that feat only two times all of last season. With Jameis Winston out, Sean Payton will become more conservative and let the defense and Kamara drive the team to victory.

The Falcons are 25th in rush defense DVOA and 19th in DVOA against receptions to running backs. New Orleans is fifth in pass-defense DVOA so they should be able to stifle the Falcons’ offense. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Saints favored by six at home with the total at 42.5 points.

Kamara has 37 targets and, in the red zone, 22 rushes and seven targets. He should be heavily involved in this one with plenty of opportunities to score fantasy goodies.

Other Option – Austin Ekeler ($7,900), Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000), Aaron Jones ($7,200)

Value

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs, $4,600 – The range of outcomes is wide for Dillon. He could carry 16 times for 78 yards as he did last week or rush three times for six yards like he did two weeks ago. He’s also not utilized often in the passing game. That said, the matchup is a fantastic one as the Chiefs are 29th in rush defense DVOA. The Kansas City offense has been sputtering as of last as well, so staying committed to the run game to travel the path of least resistance and to also keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field is definitely in play. Dillon had four red-zone carries last week so the opportunities could be there. Obviously, there’s risk because of that Aaron Jones ($7,200) guy but Dillon is cheap and the matchup is a good one.

Other Options – Jordan Howard ($4,600)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers, $7,900 — The Chiefs have scored 17 and three points in the last two contests. Teams are taking away the explosive plays, which has confounded the offense. That said, you would think Hill would be the most affected but he’s been just fine. Sure, the down button on the ceiling has been pressed but he’s more than made up for it through sheer volume. Over the last five weeks, Hill has garnered 18, nine, 12, 13 and 12 targets. He also had a 15-target game in the opener. Now, he’s only surpassed 100 yards twice and has four games below 15 DKFP, but he has six touchdowns on the season with four games above 20 DKFP, two of those being 40.1 and 50.6.

Other Options – Ja’Marr Chase ($7,600), CeeDee Lamb ($7,200), Brandin Cooks ($6,100)

Value

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Giants, $4,800 – Renfrow is a slot receiver whose upside is limited (6.7 aDOT). He does have at least five targets in every game this season while garnering seven red-zone targets on the season. The Raiders no longer have Henry Ruggs on the roster, and while Darren Waller is likely back for this one, Renfrow should be high up on the pecking order. The matchup in the slot is a good one as Darnay Holmes is the weakest of the cornerbacks for the Giants.

Other Options – Rashod Bateman ($4,000)


Tight End

Stud

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers, $7,000 – After a blistering start to the season, Kelce (and the entire Chiefs offense) have sputtered. He’s failed to eclipse 100 yards receiving and has scored fewer than 20 DKFP in five straight, with two of those below 10. Last week, he caught four of seven targets for 27 yards, translating to 5.7 DKFP. I’m not too worried about Kelce. As with Hill, the ceiling may be lower than what we’ve come to expect but he’s garnered double-digit targets in four games this season with a low of six. The Packers are 22nd in DVOA against tight ends.

Other Options –

Value

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $4,500 – This game has a total of 50 with the Chargers two-point favorites on the road. Points should be scored which means there should be aggression from both offenses. Since Zach Ertz ($4,700) went to Arizona, Goedert has received five and seven targets and gone for at least 70 yards in both games. The Chargers are 30th in DVOA against tight ends.

Other Options – Mike Gesicki ($4,900), Dan Arnold ($3,400), Tommy Sweeney ($3,100)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Bills DST @ Jacksonville Jaguars, $4,000 – The Bills are the heaviest favorites on the slate at 14 points. They are first in pass defense DVOA, fifth in rush defense DVOA and 10th in adjusted sack rate. They have 16 sacks, five fumble recoveries, 11 interceptions and one touchdown on the season.

Other Option – Patriots DST ($4,100)

Value

Bengals DST vs. Cleveland Browns, $2,900 – The Browns’ offense is struggling due to all the injuries. Last week against the Steelers, Baker Mayfield took four sacks. The Bengals are 10th in rush defense DVOA, 17th in pass-defense DVOA and 21st in adjusted sack rate. They did get lit up by Mike White last week but still scored 8.8 DKFP. On the season, the unit has 23 sacks, two fumble recoveries and seven interceptions.

Other Option – 49ers DST ($2,800)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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