The difficult thing about writing for a living is sometimes you have to describe something so beautiful that there simply aren’t words for it. Let’s just say that issue doesn’t come up much when I’m tackling a TNF article. This week? We’ve got the two-win New York Jets squaring off with the three-win Indianapolis Colts. Mike White ($9,800) versus Carson Wentz ($10,800). It’s everything that football on a Thursday should be.
Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (NYJ vs IND)
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Jonathan Taylor ($17,400 CP) - Just because something’s obvious, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s bad. Taylor has been a man possessed dating back to a Week 4 victory over Miami, as the former second-round pick has simply been one of the most efficient DFS assets in the whole NFL. Despite not once seeing 20 carries in a single game — and 60 fewer rushing attempts than Derrick Henry in total — it’s Taylor that leads all RBs in PPR points within that span of time (122.3). This is all primarily based on the fact that the Wisconsin product has scored seven touchdowns and is churning away 6.1 yards per carry in this five-contest stretch. It also doesn’t hurt that his 0.59 PPR points per touch is the best among all qualified backs. Keep an eye on the status of superstar guard Quenton Nelson, but in a matchup with a Jets D/ST ($3,000) that’s surrendered the most DKFP per game to opposing backfields so far this season, this is a no-brainer.
Michael Carter ($12,900 CP) - Conversely, the Colts D/ST ($5,000) has actually been the stingiest DFS defense when it comes to RBs, conceding the fewest DKFP per contest to the position. Still, there’s only so much volume that can be ignored due to a non-ideal matchup. That breaking point is most certainly the case with Carter heading into Week 9. Somehow, in a performance that saw the aforementioned White throw for an NFL-high 405 yards, an insane 41% of the Jets’ pass attempts were directed towards their running backs in Sunday’s win over the Bengals. I’ll repeat: 41%. As it pertains to Carter, the rookie saw 14 targets and turned those opportunities into nine receptions and 95 yards. Going back to the beginning of Week 7, Carter now has 17 catches — four more than any other player at his position across the league. He’s also registered 26 carries within that span, all while logging at least a 70% snap share in both games. We can discuss the value of a lead back in an offense with a low implied team total, but the simple truth is that Carter might suddenly be one of the NFL’s few “bell cow” RBs.
Value FLEX Plays
Denzel Mims ($2,000) - Remember the flashes Mims showed in his rookie campaign? Well, we still haven’t seen many of those in 2021, but the opportunity might be there on Thursday. After missing the Cincinnati game with an injury, Corey Davis ($7,600; hip) is doubtful to suit up once again against the Colts. That should translate to New York doling out its wide receiver snaps in a similar fashion to Week 8, a game where it was Mims who surprisingly led the way with a 70.2% share. Now, the sophomore was only able to muster three targets, two receptions and 5.0 DKFP with all that volume; however, considering how lopsided this script could end up, I expect Mims to be more involved this time around. Either way, that’s a massive role for an asset priced at $2K — especially with Indianapolis allowing the sixth-most yards per opponent pass attempt to WRs (8.9).
Ashton Dulin ($200) - I’m not sure that I really need to sell anyone on Dulin, who is priced at the absolute minimum on Thursday’s slate. The 24-year-old is literally one 10-yard reception away from hitting 10x value. Anyway, in Week 7 against the 49ers, Dulin was on the field for 63.2% of the Colts’ offensive snaps. What was so special about that contest? It was the most recent game that T.Y. Hilton (concussion) missed. The veteran wideout is back on the sideline for this evening’s tilt, and I would expect Dulin to see his role expand once more. Let us also not forget that that Sunday night victory over San Francisco was a complete mess. With howling winds and torrential downpour, Wentz was only able to muster 150 passing yards. Dulin was only able to convert two of his four targets into catches. Everything will be easier inside the comfy confines Lucas Oil Stadium. It will also be easier with the Jets’ 27th-ranked pass defense by DVOA standing in as the opposition.
Fades
Mike White ($9,800) - I’m not sure if you can ever fully fade a starting quarterback on a Showdown slate, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Mike runs out of magic in Week 9. For all his deserved accolades for last weekend’s performance, the former fifth-round pick is rocking a 5.2% career interception rate and his team is implied for 18.0 points on Thursday. That’s not great. Not to mention, White only registered 165 air yards against the Bengals — the fourth-lowest figure of any qualified QB. He was carried an extreme amount by his skill-position players gaining yards after the catch, which just isn’t a sustainable formula. Considering the Colts own the AFC’s second-best defense according to DVOA, I’m looking for White to disappoint. Heck, would you be in disbelief if we ended up seeing Joe Flacco ($6,000) at some point?
THE OUTCOME
The Jets have covered twice in 2021. Both games they also won outright. That means New York is 0-5 ATS in losses and 0-3 ATS on the road. Well, I think the Colts are going to win this game, so I guess that means a blowout is on the horizon. Like I stated above, this is simply a regression spot for Mike White. It’s also a contest that Jonathan Taylor should be able to completely control.
Final Score: Indianapolis 28, New York 14
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (NYJ vs IND)
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