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NFL Picks for Fantasy Football: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs, RB Touch and Target Projections for Week 13

Stan Son gives you his top DraftKings fantasy football picks at running back for this week along with their touch and target projections.

There are four teams on their bye this week, the Panthers, Browns, Packers and Titans, so no Christian McCaffrey, Chuba Hubbard, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, AJ Dillon, Aaron Jones, or the Titans’ stable on this week’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Listed below are the RBs that I think will return the best value at their price point on DraftKings this week, whether as studs or value plays, and their opportunity projections are also included.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st+ToC Entry]


Studs

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans, $9,200

Taylor only scored 19.7 DKFP last weekend. Boo hoo. Against a tough Tampa Bay run defense, that was a great performance. Taylor has now scored a touchdown in nine straight games. Over that span, he’s crossed the goal line 16 times! Now he gets a matchup against a Texans team that is 23rd in rush defense DVOA with the Colts 8.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. There is a slight concern that he won’t get a full workload due to a blowout but the last time he faced the Texans, the Colts won 31-3 and Taylor produced 31.8 DKFP despite rushing only 14 times.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 19 attempts
Receiving: 4.8 Targets; 3.7 Receptions

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals, $8,300

This game has the highest total on the slate at 50.5 with the Bengals only favored by three points at home. It should be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of fantasy goodies. Ekeler has carried at least 15 times in a game just four times this season but that’s okay. He’s received 30 carries and 13 targets in the red zone and scored seven touchdowns on the ground. What separates Ekeler from the other backs in the league is his involvement in the passing game. He’s garnered 66 targets on the season, which he has translated into 51 receptions for 473 yards and seven touchdowns. The Bengals have allowed the most targets to running backs this season, the second-most targets in the red zone and have given up the eighth-most fantasy points on average to the position.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 12.5 attempts
Receiving: 6.5 Targets; 5.0 Receptions

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions, $7,600

Dalvin Cook is out, so Mattison will be the bell cow for the Vikings this week. While Minnesota has the explosiveness on offense to air it out with the best of them, their preference is to ground-and-pound and play defense. They are favored by seven points on the road so the game script should be a favorable one for Mattison and the ground game. Mattison has four career starts:

  • 10/18/2020 against Atlanta - 10 rushes for 26 yards with one reception on two targets for four yards.
  • 1/3/2021 against Detroit - 21 rushes for 95 yards and a touchdown with three receptions on three targets for 50 yards and a touchdown.
  • 9/26/2021 against Seattle - 26 rushes for 112 yards with six receptions on eight targets for 59 yards.
  • 10/10/2021 against Detroit - 25 rushes for 113 yards with seven receptions on seven targets for 40 yards and a touchdown.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 11.6 attempts
Receiving: 4.4 Targets; 3.4 Receptions

Values

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears, $5,900

Arizona is a 7.5-point favorite on the road, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, so the game script should be a favorable one for the Cardinals’ rushing attack. Since Chase Edmonds succumbed to injury, Conner has played in 77%, 82% and 82% of the snaps. He’s carried 21, 10 and 21 times over that span and scored a total of four touchdowns. On the season, he has punched it in 12 times! He’s also not a zero in the passing game as he’s received five, four and six targets. Finally, he gets the money touches in the red zone with five, one and four attempts over the last three contests. The Bears are 22nd in rush defense DVOA.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 18.5 attempts
Receiving: 3.3 Targets; 2.5 Receptions

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants, $5,800

After receiving fewer than 10 carries in five of the first six games of the season, Gaskin has rushed 16, 23, 14 and 20 times over the last four weeks. He’s scored three touchdowns and received 20 rushes and two targets in the red zone! The passing game involvement has curiously subsided, though, as he’s only received two, four, two and six targets. This week, he gets a matchup against a Giants team that is 30th in rush defense DVOA and has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the running back position on average.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 12.9 attempts
Receiving: 4.2 Targets; 3.2 Receptions

Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets, $4,600

The Eagles are 6.5-point favorites on the road so the game script should be a favorable one for the Eagles. Since Week 8, the Eagles have limited Jalen Hurts ($7,000) in the passing game and have focused on the ground attack. They have rushed a league-leading 64% of the time. The next closest team is the Patriots at 53%. That’s a stark difference from the 39% rush rate they were posting earlier in the season. Now, Miles Sanders ($5,200) missed three weeks since the transition, and in the last two games, he’s played in 46% and 33% of the snaps. Scott has played in 37% and 51% of the snaps and rushed 15 times for 64 yards and a touchdown last week. He received three rushes and one target in the red zone while garnering three targets in the passing game. The Jets are 31st in rush defense DVOA so there should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodies.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 6.2 attempts
Receiving: 1.1 Targets; 0.8 Receptions

Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st+ToC Entry]



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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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