The PGA TOUR returns this week with the Hero World Challenge at Albany Golf Club (par 72, 7,309 yards, Bermuda greens), located in New Providence, Bahamas. This course has been the only home of this event since 2015, excluding last year, when the Hero World Challenge was unfortunately canceled due to the pandemic. By default, Henrik Stenson is the defending champion, winning two years ago with a score of -18, edging out John Rahm by one shot. Ever since Albany became the host course, the average winning score has been -19.8. This Ernie Els-designed links-styled course is not your traditional par 72. On site, there are five par 5s and five par 3s, while there are only eight par 4s. Automatically, this makes par 5 scoring the most important stat of the week. Of the five golfers to pick up a win at Albany, four finished in the top five in SG on the par 5s during their victories. In fact, two of these players led their field in the metric. As always, we need to put heavy emphasis on ball-striking stats, as well, and we should be targeting players with positive putting splits on Bermuda, if possible.
The Hero World Challenge is a very small field of only 20 golfers, including 13 of the top 20 ranked players in the world, and there will be no cut. With this type of event, feel free to leave money on the table this week, as it will give you a much higher chance of creating a unique lineup. Below I have featured three of my favorite value plays for the Hero World Challenge.
Tony Finau ($7,000)
Finau is a core value at this soft price. Over his past 24 rounds, his ball-striking has been immaculate, ranking eighth in SG: APP and 10th in SGT2G. Also during this time, Finau ranks 12th in SG on par fives, setting him up perfectly for his return to Albany. In Finau’s debut at this par 72 three years ago, he finished as the runner-up to Rahm. Then, the following season, Finau posted a T10 finish in his second attempt at the Els’ design.
The 32-year-old ranks fourth in this field in career strokes gained at Albany, and Finau’s +1600 odds to win the Hero World Challenge on DraftKings Sportsbook are the same as Scottie Scheffler ($7,800), who costs $800 more for DFS purposes.
Webb Simpson ($6,700)
During his T9 finish at the RSM Classic two weeks ago, Simpson had a ball-striking performance for the ages. The 36-year-old gained a whopping 12 strokes from T2G and 9.8 strokes on APP, both of which were high marks for the event by a wide margin. Not only was this Simpson’s largest output from T2G in over six years, but this performance set a new career-high in SG APP for the veteran. Now, Simpson will look to carry this momentum over to Albany, where he has finished inside the top seven twice in only three appearances.
Simpson has been an elite fantasy asset recently, ranking second in DKFP over his past 24 rounds, and he also ranks third in total strokes gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds specifically on Bermuda. Simpson is a heavy -145 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook to finish in the top 10, and is an easy choice at this low salary.
Justin Rose ($6,100)
Rose is also coming off a strong showing at the RSM Classic. The English pro generated positive strokes in every major category, including 4.8 strokes from T2G, lifting him to a T12 finish. If we include his play overseas, Rose has now carded three finishes inside the top 12 in his past five starts. Plus, the former major winner has been doing most of his damage on par 5s, ranking fifth in SG on par 5s across his past 24 rounds.
Add in a trip to Albany, where Rose owns four top-six finishes in only six career attempts, and the 41-year-old is an excellent gamble at this near minimum price tag.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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