It’s no coincidence that Week 8 (mostly) took place on Halloween. It was a damn bloodbath from a betting perspective, as underdogs went an amazing 11-4 against the spread. Overall on the season, they’re 69-53 ATS, hitting at a rate of 57%! Let’s take a look at the Week 9 board and everything daily fantasy and betting wise.
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Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite
Buffalo Bills (-14; -1000) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+650)
Betting trends:
Bills 2021 road record: 2-1
Bills 2021 road record when favored: 1-1
Bills 2021 ATS record: 4-2-1
Bills 2021 ATS record when favored: 3-2-1
Jaguars 2021 home record: 0-3
Jaguars 2021 home record as underdogs: 0-3
Jaguars 2021 ATS record: 2-5
Jaguars 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 2-4
The Bills were -14 favorites last week against the Dolphins and were just able to cover, winning the game by 15 points. It wasn’t looking good for the majority of the game, as it was tied 3-3 going into halftime. Thankfully, for Bills backers, they scored 23 points in the second half while holding the Dolphins to just eight points for the cover. Even with that, the Bills are still covering by the highest average margin in the league at +9.4 points, followed closely behind by the Cardinals at +9.1. The Bills have also moved to the top of the league in points scored per game at 32.7, barely edging out the Buccaneers who are at 32.5 and the Cowboys at 32.1. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been one of the most generous teams in offense allowed, with an average of 29 points per game, the fifth-highest mark in the league.
The Bills shouldn’t have much issue moving the ball against the Jaguars. To opposing quarterbacks, the Jaguars are allowing an average of 22.7 DKFP, 289 passing yards (8.94 yards per pass attempt), and 16.4 rushing yards. The pass rush is ranked below league average, which is a big reason why they’re averaging just 1.6 sacks per game (29th). Josh Allen ($8,200), who is the most expensive QB on the slate, has been under pressure on 36% of his dropbacks, which ranks 10th amongst eligible quarterbacks. When Allen is working with a clean pocket, he is completing 74.2% (80.1% adjusted) of his passes for an average of 7.3 YPA and nine of his 17 touchdowns. The popular options to pair Allen with will of course be Stefon Diggs ($7,700) and Cole Beasley ($5,400) who drew 13 targets last week. Both draw extremely favorable matchups in coverage, with Diggs seeing CB Tyson Campbell and Beasley against CB Tre Herndon. Campbell is allowing an average of 16.5 YPR and a 78% reception rate while Herndon is at 12 YPR and a 94.7% reception rate on 19 targets. It’ll be hard to fade the Bills on this slate.
Other notable favorites: Denver Broncos (+310) at Dallas Cowboys (-9; -410)
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Los Angeles Chargers (-2; -135) at Philadelphia Eagles (+115) Over/Under: 50
Betting trends:
Chargers 2021 road record: 2-1
Chargers 2021 road record as favorites: n/a
Chargers 2021 Over/Under record: 2-5
Chargers 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 2-2
Eagles 2021 home record: 0-3
Eagles 2021 home record as underdogs: 0-3
Eagles 2021 Over/Under record: 4-4
Eagles 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 3-4
The Chargers and Eagles are coming off very different weeks ahead of this matchup. The Eagles, who many thought (myself included) would give the Lions their first win of the season, annihilated this team by a score of 44-6. Meanwhile, the Chargers, who closed as -3.5 favorites against the Patriots, lost outright by a score of 27-24. As you can see, neither team has been strong at hitting the over on the game total, going a combined 6-9 (not nice). On average, these teams combine for 50 points per game, which is exactly where this game total lands.
I think this game has a legitimate chance of going under the 50 points. Both teams have done well against the pass but struggle to stop the run. Both teams are ranked in the top five in fantasy points allowed to that position, with the Chargers at 24.2 per game and Eagles at 23.1. Both teams have also allowed over 100 rushing yards in all but three of their total games. The Eagles run the ball more than the Chargers, doing so on 43% of their play calls. If both teams are running the ball more, it would lead to a much slower paced game, which is always a good thing for the under. The Eagles ran the ball a ton against the Lions, doing so 46 times while Jalen Hurts ($6,700) only threw the ball 14 times. While I don’t think they’ll run at that rate again, it certainly was eye opening when you consider the matchup this week. I think the under is the play here and would do so at 50 or 49.5.
Other notable total: Minnesota Vikings (+215) at Baltimore Ravens (-6; -265) O/U 50.
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NFL Week 9 Betting Splits
These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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NFL Betting Trends
This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.
Teams Against the Spread:
Best Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 5.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 1.3 |
| New England Patriots | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 3.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 2.4 |
Worst Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 | -7.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | -2.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 6-10 | -0.6 |
| New York Jets | 6-10 | -4.3 |
| New York Giants | 6-10 | -2.5 |
Teams Over/Under Records:
Best Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| New York Jets | 10-6 | 4.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 1.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8-7-1 | -0.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | -1.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-8 | 0.4 |
Worst Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | -3.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-10-1 | -3.3 |
| New York Giants | 5-10-1 | -4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | -2.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-10 | -2.8 |
Target Report
Target Report
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | MIN | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | KC | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | PIT | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | HOU | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | LAR | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | TB | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | CIN | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | NE | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | PIT | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | CIN | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings, $7,300 — This price point on Jackson feels quite affordable, as this is the cheapest he’s been all season long. Topping out at a salary of $8,000 back in Week 2, Jackson’s fantasy production hasn’t slowed down since that span. He’s gone over 20 DKFP in all but one game this season and is coming off a 23.08 showing against the Bengals in their last game. While he continues to grow as a passer, Jackson has been excelling on the ground, averaging 68.6 rushing yards and 6.3 YPC. The Vikings haven’t faced many mobile quarterbacks thus far but have seen Kyler Murray and Sam Darnold go over 30 rushing yards in those matchups. Overall, the Vikings are hovering around league average against the run, giving up an average of 4.4 YPC. As six point favorites, I love this spot for Jackson at his season-low salary.
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings, $6,000 — While Jackson is at a season-low in salary, Brown has matched his season-high this week. It’s hardly a difficult salary to work with at $6K, especially for someone averaging over eight targets per game. Brown also draws one of the more favorable matchups in this game against CB Bashaud Breeland in coverage. Breeland has been getting roasted in coverage thus far, allowing an average of 14.6 YPR on 30 catches (45 targets) and four touchdowns scored against. As you imagine, Brown dominate the Ravens receivers in Air Yards with 908, giving him an aDOT of 15.9. That is one of the highest in the league amongst pass catchers with at least 30 targets. With that matchup in mind, Brown is in a great spot to put up some numbers against this Vikings secondary.
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