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Saturday’s featured NBA Showdown contest involves the Los Angeles Lakers and the Portland Trail Blazers at 10:30 p.m. ET. As usual, DraftKings is offering up a huge Showdown contest for this game, and below I give you some of my favorite options to attack for the format.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (LAL vs POR)
Captain’s Picks
Anthony Davis ($18,600)
Choosing between Davis and Russell Westbrook ($18,900 CP) for the top spot on the slate is tough, but I give the slight edge to Davis if he’s active. He’s currently questionable, but Davis has been a monster in three games without LeBron James this season. He’s increased his usage rate, assist rate and rebound rate in those contests, and he’s also averaged 39 minutes per game. Davis has unsurprisingly made the most of all that playing time, racking up 58.0 DKFP per game.
Davis also appears to have the better individual matchup than Westbrook, with the Blazers struggling mightily with opposing big men to start the year.
If Davis is unable to suit up, Westbrook becomes the no-brainer choice at Captain. He’s increased his usage rate to 45.6% with LeBron and Davis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.70 DKFP per minute.
Damian Lillard ($17,400)
I refuse to give up on Lillard. He’s been mired in a deep shooting slump to start the year, making just 33.7% of his shots from the field and 21.7% from 3-point range. That has had a massive impact on his fantasy stock, with Lillard averaging more than 11 fewer DKFP per game than he did last year.
Still, Lillard remains too talented not to break out of this slump eventually. The advanced metrics suggest he’s still getting good shots, and he’s posted a career-high 37.8% assist rate through his first nine games. When he does eventually start making shots again, he’s going to be a massive fantasy value.
UTIL Plays
Russell Westbrook ($12,600)
If you’re not using Westbrook at Captain, he’s certainly in play as a utility. He hasn’t been quite as good as Davis in games without LeBron this season, but he’s still averaged 50.83 DKFP per game. He’s also seen a team-high usage bump of 5.5 percentage points in those contests.
The big question on this slate is can you fit Davis, Lillard and Westbrook in the same lineups, especially if you use one at Captain? It’s a major challenge, but it can be done. If all three players hit their ceilings, you’ll likely need all three in the winning lineup.
Larry Nance Jr. ($2,400)
Nance is one potential punt play for a stars-and-scrubs lineup. He’s struggled to carve out a consistent role with the Blazers this season, playing around 18 minutes per game recently. However, Nance is capable of averaging more than a fantasy point per minute, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current price tag.
Avery Bradley ($1,600)
Bradley is my favorite punt play on the slate. He’s priced at just $1,600, but he’s been a big part of the Lakers’ rotation recently. He’s played at least 28.5 minutes in each of his past three games, including a season-high 31.7 in his last contest. Bradley is not a great producer on a per-minute basis, but that’s a ton of playing time for someone in this price range. He’s also increased his usage rate by 2.8% in two games without LeBron this season.
Fades
CJ McCollum ($9,800)
If you’re like me and you’re buying the Lillard bounce-back, fading McCollum is a logical decision. Those two players are negatively correlated, meaning one tends to fail when the other succeeds. McCollum has averaged a career-high 40.2 DKFP per game to start the year, but that number should regress as Lillard’s numbers improve. McCollum has also shot 44.2% from 3-point range on a career-high 9.6 attempts per game, so he seems due for some regression in that department as well. Overall, he’s a bit overpriced in this contest.
The Outcome
The Lakers are providing more fantasy value on this slate, but this team is simply not that good without LeBron. They’ve gone just 1-2 in games without LeBron this season, and both losses have come to the lowly Thunder. Their only win was a four-point squeaker vs. the Spurs, and they needed a big fourth quarter just to force that game to overtime.
The Blazers will be their toughest test of the early year without LeBron, and I don’t think they’ll be able to pass the test. The Blazers are a solid squad – they rank 11th in Net Rating despite Lillard’s struggles – while the Lakers have been outscored by 3.3 points per 100 possessions with LeBron off the court.
The Blazers are currently listed as 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, but I don’t think that’s enough. They should be able to dispatch this team pretty easily, and things could get downright ugly if Davis is unavailable.
Final Score: Blazers 118, Lakers 104
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (LAL vs POR)
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