Week 10. Amen! We are born again after the wild and wacky week that tested all of our zen. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games on the main DraftKings NFL slate with an O/U of at least 50 points this week: MIN/LAC (52), ATL/DAL (55) and TB/WAS (51.5). There are two games with a spread of at least 10 points IND (-10) over JAX and BUF (-13) over NYJ. Not to be outdone, TB, DAL, PIT and ARI are all favored by at least nine points.
Seven games kick off at 1 p.m. ET, while four games are in the afternoon window. Why? Anyways, let’s dive into the cheaper end of the player pool and find some bargain options for Week 10.
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QUARTERBACK
($6,000 and under)
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $5,900 – Since their bye two weeks ago, the Jaguars have allowed 229 and 160 yards passing. However, in the Seattle game, Geno Smith went 20-of-24 for 195 yards and two touchdowns, so it’s not like they shut down the passing attack. It’s just the Seahawks easily won 31-7, so the passing game wasn’t needed. I can’t explain their success against the Bills last week. The loss of offensive lineman for Buffalo combined with the one-dimensional scheme, perhaps? Maybe recency bias creeps in and people shy away, but this is a great spot for Wentz.
The Colts have a potent run game, so the Jaguars won’t be able to keep two safeties deep and play coverage. On the season, they are 32nd in both adjusted sack rate and pass defense DVOA, so there should be plenty of opportunities to produce fantasy goodies.
There are volume concerns, especially if the Jaguars cannot muster any offense. Wentz has thrown fewer than 30 passes in two of his last three games. That said, he’s tossed at least two touchdowns in each of the last six games with three in the last two. He’s scored at least 20.0 DKFP in four of the last five contests.
RUNNING BACK
($5,000 and under)
Eno Benjamin, Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers, $4,400 – There aren’t a ton of options below $5K. AJ Dillon ($4,800) was the other player I was looking at, and the role for Benjamin could be similar. Both will likely get around 10 carries with some involvement in the passing game. Dillon will probably get more snaps, as it was a 60/40 split last week with Aaron Jones ($6,900), while the ratio was close to 80/20 for Benjamin with James Conner ($6,300). I’d expect that to come down to the 70/30 range with the chance of a 60/40 split, since Benjamin only played last week due to the Chase Edmonds (ankle) injury.
I slightly prefer Benjamin because he is attached to a better quarterback and offense. Colt McCoy ($5,000) is a veteran and played well last week, while Jordan Love ($5,100) still looks raw. Still, there is a chance both Kyler Murray ($8,000) and Aaron Rodgers ($7,100) are active this week.
WIDE RECEIVER
($5,000 and under)
Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $4,500 – Pascal scored 20.3 DKFP and 14.8 DKFP in his first two games. He also garnered a total of nine red zone targets in the Colts’ first four games. Since then, no touchdowns or double-digit DKFP games and zero red zone looks. He’s due! I kid, I kid. I mentioned in the Wentz section that Indianapolis should be able to feast against the Jaguars through the air. Pascal has received seven, eight and six targets over the past three games, respectively.
Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team, $3,300 – Antonio Brown ($6,100; ankle) is still in a walking boot and unlikely to play this week. Two weeks ago, Johnson filled in and played on 64% of the snaps and received six targets. The Football Team is 31st in pass defense DVOA, while the Buccaneers are implied for 30.5 points. Simple arithmetic, my dear Watson.
Cedrick Wilson, Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons, $3,500 — This game has the highest total on the slate according to the DraftKings Sportsbook at 55. Points should be scored. “Should” being the operative word, because anything can happen as Week 9 so painfully taught us. Tight end Blake Jarwin (hip) was put on the injured reserve last week. As a result, the Cowboys went to more 11 personnel with Wilson being the main beneficiary. He played on 82% of the snaps in Week 9 after perviously hovering in the 60% range. He only caught two of five targets for 28 yards, but more time on the field allows for more opportunities to provide fantasy goodies. Wilson has three touchdowns on the season with four red zone looks.
TIGHT END
($4,000 and under)
Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers, $3,400 – Conklin has received seven targets in each of the last two games and caught five passes in each. While he only tallied 45 and 57 yards, he does have two games over 70 receiving yards this season and has scored one touchdown. This game has a total of 52 with the Chargers favored by 2.5 points, so it should be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. The Chargers are 30th in DVOA against tight ends so the matchup is a good one for Conklin.
Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, $3,500 – Over the last four games, Arnold has received seven, 10, five and eight targets, respectively. He’s gone for at least 60 yards in three of those contests. The Colts have one of the best run defenses in the league — they ranks first in DVOA — and their offense should score plenty of points, so the aerial attack should be front and center for the Jaguars. The Colts are 20th in DVOA against tight ends.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
($2,800 and under)
Browns D/ST, Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots, $2,800 – The Browns are third in rush defense DVOA, and Bill Belichick usually travels the path of least resistance. He’s shown confidence in Mac Jones ($5,300) and there could be extra pass attempts in this one. While Jones has been good, especially for a rookie, he’s still thrown seven interceptions on the season and been sacked 17 times. The Browns are fourth in adjusted sack rate.
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