There are four teams on their bye this week, so no David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert, Joe Mixon or Devontae Booker. Oh, the Texans are off, but who cares?
There are still plenty of good options, though, spread throughout the DraftKings salary structure. We’re starting to get a good idea of some of the best matchups to attack and how workloads will be distributed. Listed below are the RBs that I think will return the best value at their price point, whether as studs or value plays, and their opportunity projections are also included.
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Studs
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $8,100
The path of least resistance for the Colts this week is through the air as the Jaguars are 32nd in pass defense DVOA. That said, the Colts’ offense is predicated on the run game first and foremost and they are 22nd in passing rate. While Taylor has not received 20 carries in any game this season, he’s gone over 100 yards four times and has scored in six straight games. Over that same span, he’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in all with three games over 30. Taylor has a whopping 45 red-zone carries on the season. According to DraftKings Sportbook, the Colts are favored by 10 points, so the game script should be a favorable one.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 21.0 attempts
Receiving: 4.6 Targets; 3.5 Receptions
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions, $7,900
Harris has received at least 20 carries in each of the last four games. He’s only gone over 100 yards once on the season but he’s scored four touchdowns and is involved in the passing game. He has 42 targets on the season. In the red zone, Harris has 15 rushes and 12 targets. The Lions are 28th in rush defense DVOA and dead-last in DVOA against pass-catching running backs. The Steelers are favored by nine points at home.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 21.1 attempts
Receiving: 6.0 Targets; 4.5 Receptions
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers, $8,000
It’s been an inconsistent season for Cook. He’s gone over 20 DKFP only twice while he has two games below 10. He’s gone over 100 yards only twice and scored two touchdowns on the ground all season. The passing game involvement hasn’t been robust either. This is a prime spot to get back on track as the Chargers are dead-last in rush defense DVOA.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 17.8 attempts
Receiving: 3.6 Targets; 2.7 Receptions
Values
Alex Collins, Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers, $5,200
The playing time is a concern for Collins as the snap share has been all over the map this season. He has two games with 71% and 60% while he’s only received 39% and 47% over the last two weeks. That said, he is the “lead back” for the Seahawks, who face a Packers defense that is 30th in rush defense DVOA and has a raw quarterback leading them on offense. In addition, Russell Wilson is due back for this one, which should open things up for the run game and possibly provide more red-zone opportunities.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: N/A
Receiving: N/A
Ty Johnson, New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills, $4,500
Michael Carter ($5,600) is the lead back for the Jets but the split is 60/40 between him and Johnson. In the only two games he’s played, Johnson has carried the ball only four times in each game but he’s scored 19.6 and 13.1 DKFP. That’s due to his passing game involvement, in which he’s garnered six and three targets and gone for 71 and 40 yards with a touchdown in each game. Scoring a touchdown through the passing game likely won’t happen every game, but he’s $1,100 cheaper than Carter and the Jets will likely have to throw a ton to keep pace with the Bills.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 4.8 attempts
Receiving: 3.2 Targets; 2.5 Receptions
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