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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 13

Stan Son gives his top studs and values at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Week 13. It’s winning time, as spoken by the great Charlie Sheen. Sip the caffeine for it is time to convene in order to illuminate the unforeseen so that we may increase the bankroll for Week 14. The Panthers, Browns, Packers and Titans are on their bye. As a result, there are 11 games on the main DraftKings NFL slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are two games with a total of at least 50 points — LAC/CIN (50.5) and TB/ATL (50.5). There are two double-digit favorites — TB (-11) over ATL and LAR (-12.5) over JAX.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


Quarterback

Stud

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals, $6,700 — Tom Brady ($7,200) and Matthew Stafford ($7,300) both have fantastic matchups as their opponents are in the bottom five for pass-defense DVOA. That said, both teams are double-digit favorites and have good defenses which could neuter the opposing offenses. Volume could be a concern. Could both quarterbacks blow up? Sure, so if the projected ownership numbers come in low, then I will happily go with either option but I think both will be fairly rostered.

Herbert has a slightly lower projection than Brady and Stafford but he’s in the general vicinity. The Bengals’ defense has scored double-digit DKFP three times this season and held five teams under 20 points but they don’t jump out from any metric standpoint and allowed the Jets to put up 34 points on them. CIN is 20th in pass-defense DVOA and 19th in adjusted sack rate.

Herbert has attempted at least 34 passes in every game this season with five games above 40. DraftKings Sportsbook has this game with the highest total at 50.5 and the Chargers are three-point underdogs on the road, so the passing volume should be there for Herbert. While he has five games under 20 DKFP, Herbert has exceeded 30 DKFP four times with a high of 45.82.

Other Options – Tom Brady ($7,200), Matthew Stafford ($7,300)

Value

Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts, $5,300 — The Colts are third in rush defense DVOA so the Texans' offense should skew towards the pass. Another factor is that the Texans are eight-point underdogs at home, so unless they turtle up, they will have to be aggressive and chase points.

Since returning from injury, Taylor has attempted 26, 24 and 43 passes. He’s exceeded 200 yards passing only once but those were all one-score games against the Jets, Titans and Dolphins. The Colts are a different beast. Taylor has rushing prowess as he has two, six and three attempts and scored two touchdowns on the ground against the Titans two weeks ago.

He’s gone for 16.32 and 19.08 DKFP in the last two games, and at $5,300, is a good value with plenty of upside.


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Running Back

Stud

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans, $9,200 — Taylor has scored a touchdown in nine straight games with a total count of 14! He’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in eight of those contests with four above 30 and a high of 56.4. He failed to reach 20 DKFP against a tough Bucs run defense last week. Still, he scored a touchdown and produced 19.7 DKFP.

The Colts are big favorites on the road and Taylor should find the sledding much easier this week as the Texans are 25th in rush defense DVOA. There is concern about volume due to a blowout but Taylor faced this Texans team seven games ago, and while he only rushed 14 times, he went for 145 yards and scored two touchdowns, resulting in 31.8 DKFP. With Tyrod Taylor back under center for Houston, the chances of another blowout are mitigated somewhat.

Other Options – Austin Ekeler ($8,300), Joe Mixon ($8,100), Leonard Fournette ($7,300), Alexander Mattison ($7,600)

Value

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears, $5,900 – Since Chase Edmonds succumbed to injury, Conner has played in 77%, 82% and 82% of the snaps. He’s received at least 20 carries in two of those contests and garnered six, four and five targets in the passing game. He’s scored a touchdown in five straight games and has a total of 13 on the season. On the season, he has a total of 31 red-zone carries.

The Cardinals are 7.5-point favorites on the road and the Bears are 19th in rush defense DVOA. Conner is too cheap for his role and projected game environment.

Other Options – Eli Mitchell ($6,000), Myles Gaskin ($5,800), Boston Scott ($4,600)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions, $8,200 — This will likely be a ground-and-pound game with Alexander Mattison ($7,600) carrying the load, but Jefferson should still see chances to produce fantasy goodies. The Lions are 28th in pass-defense DVOA and the last time Jefferson faced them, he caught seven of eight targets for 124 yards. Over the last three games, he’s received nine, 10 and 11 targets and gone for 83, 169 and 143 yards with a two-touchdown game two weeks ago.

Other Options – Cooper Kupp ($9,000—not sure he’s worth the price but he’s getting targets and still has a massive ceiling), Diontae Johnson ($6,800), Jaylen Waddle ($6,400)

Value

Odell Beckham Jr., Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $5,500 – Beckham played in 98% of the snaps last week and garnered 10 targets, which were tied for the team lead. He caught five of them for 81 yards and scored a touchdown. The Jaguars are dead-last in pass-defense DVOA and the price is too cheap for the expected volume and matchup.

Other Options – Russell Gage ($5,300), Rashod Bateman ($4,900), DeAndre Carter ($3,600)


Tight End

Stud

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens, $4,200 – I usually follow the volume and targets and that would lead me to Mark Andrews ($6,000), who has received at least 10 targets in three of the last four games. That said, the Steelers have defended the tight end position well this season so I’m going to the tight end on the other side in this game. Freiermuth has scored a touchdown in four of the last five games. He hasn’t exceeded 45 yards receiving over that span but he has target counts of four, seven, nine and six. More importantly, he has red-zone target counts of one, four, three and two and has a total of 15 on the season. The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most DKFP to the position and third-most targets.

Other Options – Mark Andrews ($6,000), Rob Gronkowski ($5,300)

Value

Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Football Team, $2,700 – Moreau will likely be the most rostered tight end on the slate this weekend. The price is super cheap and the last time Darren Waller missed a game, he caught six of six targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. To visit the Island of Moreau or not? That is the question.

Other Options – Logan Thomas ($4,000)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Philadelphia Eagles DST at New York Jets, $3,600 – Have you seen Zach Wilson ($5,200) play? Exactly. He’s thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 23 times despite missing four games. The Eagles have scored double-digit DKFP four times this season with a high of 21. They have held six teams to under 20 points and racked up 19 sacks, forced four fumbles, intercepted nine passes and scored four touchdowns.

Other Option – Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST ($3,500), Miami Dolphins DST ($3,300), Vikings DST ($3,200)

Value

Bengals DST vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $2,800 – I’m not crazy about any of the value DSTs this weekend so the Bengals it is. They don’t jump out from a metrics perspective as they are 19th in pass-defense DVOA and 19th in adjusted sack rate. They have put up double-digit DKFP in three games this season with two in the most recent games. They’ve held five teams to under 20 points and racked up 30 sacks, five fumble recoveries, nine interceptions and one touchdown. The Chargers are an explosive offense but the Bengals are at home and Justin Herbert has thrown 10 interceptions on the season and been sacked 21 times. DraftKings Sportsbook has this game with the highest total on the slate with the Bengals favored by three points, so it should be a back-and-forth affair with both offenses maintaining aggression. That could translate into plenty of dropbacks and opportunities for mistakes from Herbert.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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