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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 14 Top High-Upside DFS Targets, Sleepers

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be low-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


Stacks

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes ($8,000) — Josh Jacobs ($6,200) — Travis Kelce ($7,400)

It happens once or twice every season. The field gets lulled to sleep after a couple of slow games from Patrick Mahomes and forgets how easily he and his receivers can combine for a slate-breaking type of game. After posting zero passing touchdowns over his last two games and busting many DFS lineups and season-long teams, it certainly feels like sentiment is very low.

We won’t get too deep into analysis with Mahomes, who is mired in a down year, but it was only three weeks ago that he popped off for 405 yards and five passing touchdowns against this same Raiders team. Las Vegas still doesn't possess a great pass rush (they’re 10th to last in sacks per game) and outside of Casey Hayward, they don’t have a deep enough secondary to stop all of the Kansas City’s weapons. While two of Mahomes’ five touchdowns from Week 11 against Vegas went to Tyreek Hill, the scoring balance feels like it could shift to Travis Kelce. The Raiders don't have a deep linebacker crew and allowed Kelce to accumulate eight catches and 119 yards in Week 11, his season high in that regard. Kelce is projecting to not be a top-three owned play at tight end this week, and has scored six touchdowns in his last seven meetings with the Raiders.

The Raiders are obviously dealing with injury and depth issues on the offensive side this year, and their leading receiver Darren Waller looks highly questionable to play this week again. With Kenyan Drake also out, that leaves Josh Jacobs as the lone man standing in the backfield and likely to get a ton of work as a receiver as well. The Raiders have targeted the running back position 27 times over their last three games (nine targets per game) and Jacobs could be on the field for well over 80% of the snaps. He’s also playing against a Chiefs defense who has ceded 4.7 yards per carry on the season, and over the last three games, the third worst mark on the year. Jacobs will get a ton of volume this week, regardless of the score, and makes for a great comeback play on this highly explosive stack, which doesn't seem likely to approach anything near heavy chalk status in big fields.

Just Missed: Joe Burrow ($6,000) — Ja’Marr Chase ($6,900)


Quarterback

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans ($6,600)

The Seahawks enter this week’s game against the Texans as -8.5 favorites and with a 24.25 implied team total. In previous seasons, this would be a spot where Wilson would be generating serious interest for DFS. With the Seahawks’ offense currently producing under 20 points per game and Wilson having failed to break 20 DKFP in each of his last five games, sentiment remains at an all-time low.

If Seattle is going to score points, then there is a good chance they’ll come via the air. Outside of one broken play by Travis Homer last week, no Seahawk running back has produced more than 45 yards on the ground since Week 6. Even last week, we saw most of Seattle’s big plays come via the pass, and their receivers will get a much friendly secondary to work against. Look for Wilson to potentially break out in Week 14 with Tyler Lockett ($6,700) looking like a great stacking partner given DK Metcalf’s (questionable - illness) early week practice absences.

Just Missed: Joe Burrow ($6,000)


Running Back

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens ($7,600)

Nick Chubb is in an interesting spot this week for big field strategists. He’s $200 more expensive than Leonard Fournette ($7,400), who we know will be popular seeing that he’s just recently posted a four touchdown game and is averaging near seven targets per game. His popularity is going to ensure that a player like Chubb—who possesses a worse floor but similar upside to Fournette—stays very low owned in GPPs this week.

The worries with Chubb will also extend to the fact that he’s only played on around 50% of the snaps since Kareem Hunt ($5,600) has returned. Hunt’s presence hasn’t stopped Chubb from getting lots of touches or posting big games in the past as evidenced by the fact he took 20 or more touches between Weeks 4-6 this season. There’s also rumblings that the Browns will be using both on the field at the same time in this game to try and jumpstart a stagnant offense. It’s not for the faint of heart, but fading the Buccaneer’s top running back and pivoting to Chubb will unlock some really unique builds this week.

Just Missed: Saquon Barkley ($6,000)


Wide Receiver

Cee Dee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team ($7,200)

The Washington Football Team have operated as a traditional funnel to the pass defense this year, allowing just 4.1 yards per rush on the season. Through the air, Washington has been very gettable, and sit fifth-worst in yards per attempt this season, while also allowing the third most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts.

Despite this great looking matchup and the fact that Ezekiel Elliott has looked done/injured in his last couple of outings, there doesn’t seem to be a huge rush to play Lamb this week, and that could certainly make this a great opportunity to deploy him in big fields. Lamb has had a solid year, improving his yards per catch mark to 14.5 this season, and he had 13 targets last week in a game where Dallas led for most of the match. Dallas’ regression on defense of late means this game has a great shot at staying close on the scoreboard throughout, and the Cowboys come in with a solid 26.25 implied team total, the fourth biggest on the slate. Lamb’s a great pay-up target in big fields.

Just Missed: Tyler Lockett ($6,700)


Tight End

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens ($3,400)

Despite the Browns being without two of their main tight ends this week in Harrison Bryant (ankle) and David Njoku (COVID), there hasn’t been much hype surrounding Austin Hooper this week at all. The Browns come into this game having targeted the tight end position on over 30% of their throws this season, and with Hooper likely seeing a big jump in pass routes run this week (out of necessity), his sub 3.5k salary begins to look very tempting.

We also have a fantastic matchup on paper with the Ravens, who have allowed seven touchdowns this year to opposing tight ends and the sixth-most receptions to the position. The sentiment on the Browns offense couldn't be lower this week, but the pass targets are also likely going to be very condensed with Hooper in a great spot to potentially find six plus targets, against a team who often forgets the tight end position exists within their own red zone.

Just Missed: Evan Engram ($3,500)


Defense/Special Teams

New Orleans Saints ($3,600) at New York Jets

The Saints are playing the Jets this week, so we already have a big piece of the puzzle laid out for us. The Jets have turned the ball over more than any other team this year and have allowed the sixth-most sacks per game. This may be a road game for New Orleans, who is coming off five straight losses, but New Orleans is also 25-13 against the spread on the road since 2017, and their DST has been a better road unit this year as well. The Saints are allowing 50 total yards less per game in six road games in 2021 and have accumulated six more sacks on the road than at home this year.

Ultimately, New Orleans’ defense stands out as the best unit in this game and is priced up for DFS purposes to the point where high ownership in big field GPPs seems unlikely. With Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill running the ball against a weak Jets rush defense, the Saints defense should be able to tee off on Zach Wilson who remains one of the best targets for opposing DSTs in the league.

Just missed: Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,300)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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