Whole lot of NBA action Friday — so much so that five picks managed to catch my eye. Here’s how to approach Friday’s NBA action via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
If you caught Wednesday’s version of this article in time, you had a chance to get the Bucks-Heat total at a good number. Because that game saw 217 points scored — good enough for us, but not good enough to get above the final mark before tipoff. The under has now hit in 16 of Milwaukee’s 26 games this season. It’s happened a little less frequently for Houston this year, but 14-for-24 isn’t that much of a difference.
Now, the Rockets aren’t terribly efficient on the defensive end (20th), which could boost Milwaukee’s production (10th in offensive efficiency). But Houston isn’t efficient on the other end of the floor either (27th). Milwaukee, however, is eighth in defensive efficiency. In case it wasn’t already obvious, the Rockets are in for a long night.
I was eyeing this total when I first saw it at 215.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but that was a smidge too high. Not unattainable, but a little extra breathing room was required.
Neither of these teams are efficient on the offensive end. Detroit isn’t even averaging 100 points a game this season. But, both of these teams are brutal on the defensive end. The Pistons rank 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Pelicans are dead last. Despite their lack of offensive production on the whole, I expect these two teams to do everything they can to expose the other’s horrid work on the defensive end.
Although Jarred Vanderbilt is coming along for Minnesota, Cleveland’s rookie phenom has himself a favorable matchup Friday.
The Timberwolves have surrendered the seventh-most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards this season. While Minnesota hasn’t struggled as much against the position in terms of points, we’ve seen Mobley comfortably reach double figures against Utah and Milwaukee, both of which are allowing fewer points per game to power forwards.
The rookie has eclipsed this total in 16 of the 22 games he’s played in this season. In 12 road games, he’s combined for 22-plus points and rebounds seven times. In the seven games he’s played since returning from injury on Nov. 27, Mobley has hit this over four times.
Backing Mobley to post a double-double (+320) is a solid play, but his point-rebounds total is the smarter one to back vs. Minnesota.
Mobley has been a monster on the defensive end. He’s blocked at least one shot in all but three games this season. But, of course, we need him to block multiple shots on Friday. Well, the big man has done just that in half of the games he’s played this season.
When it comes to Minnesota’s part in this, their shots get blocked more than most in the league. The Timberwolves rank 23rd in shots blocked by opponents per game (5.3). Since his return from injury, has blocked multiple shots in five of seven games. He didn’t block a shot vs. Washington, who’s the eight-best team in terms of shots blocked by opponents per game, and only got one vs. Utah, who ranks fourth in the same category.
Until Jaylen Brown comes back, you have to look at Tatum’s point total on DraftKings Sportsbook whenever the Celtics play. Boston’s star forward averages 0.78 points per minute with Brown off the floor and plays 36.3 minutes per game — which means he should, on average, hit this over when Brown is sidelined.
In each of his last four games, Tatum has done just that — even vs. the Clippers, despite his slow start. And the fact Tatum struggled out of the gate vs. L.A. and the Celtics have lost back-to-back games makes this even more appealing. He’ll try to dig in and do more to lift Boston. The C’s will need more from him vs. the Suns, too. Phoenix is the second-most efficient team on the defensive end this season.
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