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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 15

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Week 15. May all your screens be brightened by green causing your brain to produce tons of dopamine. There is a two-game Saturday NFL slate, so Sunday’s main slate will consist of 11 games. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are no games with a total of at least 50 points. The HOU/JAX game has a lowly total of 39.5. Relegate them! There are three double-digit favorites — DAL -10.5 over NYG, ARI -13.5 over DET and BUF -11 over CAR. There are two favorites of 9.5 points - MIA over NYJ and SF over ATL.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


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Editor’s Note: Sunday’s game between the Seahawks and the Rams has been postponed to Tuesday.

Quarterback

Stud

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks, $7,000 — On the season, the Rams are 10th in passing rate at 61%. The league average is 58%. The Seahawks are 28th in pass-defense DVOA, 28th in coverage according to PFF and 30th in pass rush. The Rams are first in pass blocking, so this is not a square peg into a round hole situation. Oh, and the Seahawks just let Davis Freaking Mills go 33-of-49 for 331 yards and a touchdown against them. Over the last three games, Stafford has attempted 30, 38 and 38 passes and thrown for 287, 295 and 302 yards with three touchdowns in each game. That’s translated to 23.48, 24 and 26.98 DKFP. In the earlier meeting against Seattle back in October, Stafford went 25-of-37 for 365 yards and one touchdown with an interception. The second game against a division rival can be tough at times, and DK Sportsbook has the total at 45 points, but the Rams are at home where Stafford has a 1.57% better completion percentage and averages 11.2 more yards per game.

Other Options – Aaron Rodgers ($7,500)

Value

Davis Mills, Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars, $5,400 — This game has a paltry total of 39.5 points. Yuck, so the fantasy goodies may not flow like the Nile River. That said, the Texans are still implied for 21.75 points. Last week, Mills impressed by going 33-of-49 for 331 yards and a touchdown against Seattle. I went over the porous defensive metrics of the Seahawks above. Well, the Jags are 31st in pass defense DVOA, 27th in coverage and 25th in pass rush. Mills went for 21.04 DKFP last week and produced two other games over 20 on the season.

Other Options – Trevor Lawrence ($5,100), Tua Tagovailoa ($5,700)


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Running Back

Stud

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans, $7,800 — Harris leads the NFL in total touches with 297 (237 rushes and 60 receptions). He’s received 23 carries and 14 targets in the red zone and is one of the true bell cows in the NFL. He’s received at least 20 rush attempts in the last two games and exceeded that number five other times. The Titans are 18th in rush defense DVOA, and while the Steelers are home underdogs by two points, Harris is game-script proof due to his passing game involvement. He’s produced at least 20 DKFP in seven games this season with a high of 31.2. He’s failed to score 10 DKFP in two games.

Other Options – Joe Mixon ($7,200), Eli Mitchell ($6,200), Antonio Gibson ($6,000), James Conner ($6,400)

Value

Devonta Freeman, Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers, $5,500 – The health and availability of Lamar Jackson ($7,200) is a big piece to the puzzle as the ceiling is much higher with than without him. That said, Tyler Huntley ($5,400) showed that he is more than capable of running the offense. After playing in fewer than 60% of the snaps, Freeman has been in on 69% and 66% of the snaps over the last two weeks. He has not rushed over 20 times yet in a game but has double-digit carries in six straight. It’s been the passing game involvement that has been most enticing, as he has 36 targets on the season and has received five and eight over the last two games. He also has 14 red-zone carries on the season. The Packers are 24th in rush defense DVOA.

Other Options – Myles Gaskin ($5,600), Malcolm Brown ($4,000), James Robinson ($5,400)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks, $9,000 — Well, I like Stafford so it only makes sense that I like Kupp as well. He’s only leading the NFL in targets with 151, which is 20 more than the second-place player. There’s only been one game that he hasn’t received at least 10 targets, and he got nine in that contest. Not to be outdone, the 31 red zone opportunities are second on the team! He’s expensive so there is merit to fading him, especially since the ownership will likely be high and he’d have to score over 30 DKFP to make you regret not having him. That said, he’s accomplished that feat five times this season and has a high of 40.6.

Other Options – Davante Adams ($8,900)

Value

Odell Beckham Jr., Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks, $5,400 – Uh, I think I have a Rams problem. Well, at least I know who I’m stacking, sooooo here’s to Sony Michel ($5,800) and Darrell Henderson ($5,900) each scoring two touchdowns this weekend. Over the last three games, Beckham has garnered seven, five and 10 targets. He’s scored a touchdown in each of those contests, has three red-zone targets and is averaging 14.3 yards per reception. Of note, Beckham tested positive for COVID-19 early this week, so his status will need to be monitored leading up to Sunday.

Other Options – Van Jefferson ($5,600), Josh Reynolds ($4,100), Brandin Cooks ($5,800), DeVante Parker ($4,300)


Tight End

Stud

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons, $7,500 – Let’s see. 13 catches on 15 targets for 151 yards and a touchdown. Nine catches on 12 targets for 181 yards and two touchdowns. Is that good? Because those seem like pretty good stat lines to me. That’s what Kittle has done over the last two games, which were good for 37.1 and 42.6 DKFP. Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. It was two weeks ago for last week. Seriously, though, expecting another 30-burger is likely foolish but it’s within the range of outcomes. The most important thing is that he’s healthy and getting double-digit targets. As long as those two things remain constant, fantasy goodies should rain down from the heavens like manna for the Israelites.

Other Options – Mark Andrews ($6,400)

Value

John Bates, Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles, $3,000 – With Logan Thomas done for the year, last week’s snap count distribution was interesting. Ricky Seals-Jones played 46% of the snaps while Bates was in on 71%. He only received two targets but he does have three games with at least three on the season. A ringing endorsement, right? Hey, there’s a reason why he’s $3,000. The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to the position by a wide margin with the fourth-most targets. There’s a greater than Lloyd Christmas chance of something happening here.

Other Options – Tyler Higbee ($4,000), James O’Shaughnessy ($3,200)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Miami Dolphins DST vs. New York Jets, $3,700 – The Dolphins are always tough at home. Now they get the Jets and Zach Wilson ($5,200). Have you seen Wilson play? Granted, he’s made some improvements but...my momma always said if you don’t have anything nice to say then shut up. Ok, mom. DK Sportsbook has Miami favored by 10 points and the defense has exceeded point expectations 70% of the time this season. Their blitz-happy ways have produced four double-digit DKFP games with a high of 23. They’ve held six teams to fewer than 20 points with five of those coming in the most recent contests. On the season, they’ve racked up 31 sacks, 10 fumble recoveries, 11 interceptions and three touchdowns. These teams met three weeks ago in New York and the Miami DST scored 7 DKFP, as they accumulated two sacks and two fumble recoveries while holding the Jets to 17 points.

Other Options – Arizona Cardinals DST ($4,000), Dallas Cowboys DST ($3,600), Buffalo Bills DST ($3,100)

Value

Carolina Panthers DST @ Buffalo Bills, $2,400 – The Panthers are sixth in pass-defense DVOA and first in adjusted sack rate. The Bills are one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league and have had issues with pass protection at times this season. Now, they’ve allowed 29, 33 and 27 points to the Falcons, Dolphins and Football Team over the last three weeks so it’s well within the range of outcomes that the Bills stomp Carolina. That said, we have seen Buffalo struggle at times so Lloyd Christmas says hi again. On the season, the Panthers have held six teams to under 20 points and racked up 36 sacks, seven fumble recoveries, eight interceptions and one touchdown.

Other Option – Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,800)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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