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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 15 Top High-Upside DFS Targets, Sleepers

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to focus purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be low-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


Editor’s Note: Sunday’s game between the Seahawks and the Rams has been postponed to Tuesday.

Stacks

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Russell Wilson ($6,400) — DK Metcalf ($6,200) — Cooper Kupp ($9,000)

The Seahawks take on the Rams this week, and both teams will be battling through some COVID-19 issues. The Rams could still be without Jalen Ramsey and Odell Beckham (health protocols) while the Seahawks could also be without Tyler Lockett (health protocols). Focusing on the Seattle side first, it’s an obvious opportunity for Metcalf to breakout against a Rams defense that will be without multiple starters and has allowed the second-most receptions and seventh-most yards to opposing wide receivers this year.

Metcalf may have not been able to connect with Wilson the last couple of games, but Seattle’s QB did average a stout 9.4 yards per attempt last week vs. Houston. Metcalf’s five-game skid without a touchdown, and the fact he’s been missing practice for rest, should help keep ownership lower. The third-year player has now produced nine games with 90-plus yards and at least one touchdown over the last two years and remains one of daily fantasy’s top upside plays at receiver. While it’s also been a mostly forgettable season for Wilson, he’s in a great place to take advantage of a team that is an obvious letdown spot here with the Rams on a short week and dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak.

Pairing Wilson and Metcalf gives us a great cost-effective stack that could produce 4x value or more returns, but it also helps us fit in the fantasy MVP available on the other side of this game. With Beckham questionable, Kupp is likely going to be asked to perform his usual magic act of getting open on every play. He faces a Seattle defense that has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt in their last three games (fifth-worst in the league). Kupp has averaged an insane 12.7 targets over his last five games and seems certain to come up with the goods again for DFS players — if Wilson and Metcalf are able to force the Rams into a shootout here. Stacking this game — which has made the Rams’ elite defense more vulnerable — makes sense in what should be a wild Week 15 in DFS.

Just Missed: Josh Allen ($8,100) — Stefon Diggs ($7,700)


Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos ($6,100)

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Bengals, who got semi-blown out by the Chargers and then lost in OT last week vs. the 49ers. The two losses have also led to lower sentiment on Burrow, who is projecting for some lower ownership in Week 15. Despite a pinky issue, Burrow actually played quite well in Week 14, completing 73% of his passes while averaging 10.2 yards per pass attempt. Now a week healthier, and with a full compliment of receivers (there’s been no COVID-19 issues in Cincinnati yet), Burrow is fully capable of landing another solid day in Week 15, in what is essentially a must-win game for the Bengals.

Denver has shut down weaker passing units this year, but elite quarterbacks have also had their way against them. They’ve ceded 300-yard and multiple touchdown games to the likes of Derek Carr and Justin Hebert recently and have seen a few of their depth players in the secondary land on the reserve/COVID-19 list this week. Stacking Burrow with one of his elite receivers makes for an interesting contrarian play this week, especially when considering the fact the Bengals’ offensive unit doesn’t seem to be dealing with any COVID-19 issues (for now).

Just Missed: Lamar Jackson ($7,200 - questionable)


Running Back

D’Onta Foreman, Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,200)

The Titans rushed the ball 27 times in Week 14, and for the second week in a row, it was Foreman who led the team in carries. Foreman may still cede some snaps to other running backs, but it’s clear he’s now the preferred choice of head coach Mike Vrabel, as he’s out-touched the combo of Jeremy McNichols and Dontrell Hilliard in the red zone 10-2 in the last two games.

Tennessee may only be a one-point favorite, as of writing, but the Titans run the ball in all situations, and they face a Pittsburgh team that has allowed 5.5 yards per rush over their last three games (the second-worst mark in the league). Tennessee’s O-Line should be able to impose their will, and with Foreman now dominating red zone and early down work, a Derrick Henry “lite” type of day could be in store for the former Texan. He’s a great mid-tier target in GPPs for Week 15.

Just Missed: Rashaad Penny ($5,400)


Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans ($7,500)

On the other side of the Titans-Steelers game is a Pittsburgh passing attack that could push for 40-plus pass attempts. Teams facing the Titans have averaged 38.5 pass attempts in 2021 (fourth-most in the league), and the Steelers rushing attack is unlikely to find much success against a unit that has allowed 2.8 yards per carry over the last three games.

With Juju Smith-Schuster on IR and Chase Claypool ($5,900) more interested in making Instagram reels than winning football games, Johnson is in a spot to push for 10-plus targets and post a “Copper Kupp” sort of afternoon. Johnson has been cementing his grip on his team target share over the last five games, and he’s actually tied with Kupp in targets over his last five games — both receivers have 61 targets over that span. Johnson gets a Titans secondary that has improved of late but still allowed the most receptions and second-most DKFP to the wide receiver position this year. The dust covering Ben Roethlisberger ($5,600) these days should help keep ownership low, making Johnson an elite pay-up target at wide receiver for Week 15.

Just Missed: Laviska Shenault ($4,300)


Tight End

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets ($5,000)

The Jets are fresh off a game vs. the Eagles where they allowed a backup quarterback to connect with his leading tight end for over 100 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins may also be without lead receiver Jaylen Waddle this week, who just landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Thursday. The spot really couldn't get much better for Gesicki, who is all but assured of a big workload and will likely push for the team lead in targets.

Gesicki has had a sneaky good fantasy season and comes into this game averaging 11 yards per catch and seven targets per game. His lack of touchdowns on the season (he has two entering this game) is the only thing holding him back from a stellar year, and that positive regression could all come at once this week. The Jets struggled mightily against another athletic after-the-catch receiving tight end in Week 13 and will likely allow Gesicki to go for a big day here too.

Just Missed: Dawson Knox ($5,100)


Defense/Special Teams

Tennessee Titans ($3,000) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Titans DST unit has been a great upside unit to target in DFS under Vrabel. In the last three years, the Titans have ranked 10th, seventh and 13th in the league in turnovers. This year alone, the Titans have racked up five games with 12 or more DKFP, and each of those five games have come in the team’s last 10 starts.

Tennessee has also been nearly impenetrable as a rush defense of late, and the Titans come into this game allowing just 2.8 yards per carry over their last three. The Steelers already rank third-to-last in the league in yards per rush attempt and will be forced to rely on their passing game here — and a quarterback that has thrown for just 6.7 yards per attempt and has turned the ball over 11 times this year. Tennessee should be lower-owned in big fields this week, and their opportunistic DST is in a spot where it could bust through for a big game against a fading Roethlisberger.

Just missed: Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,800)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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