All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The second Damien Harris was ruled out Saturday, Stevenson’s prop were put in play. He was due for some regression after New England’s absurdly run-heavy approach vs. the Bills in Week 13, but now the backfield is all his. As much as the Pats may need to play catchup vs. Indy, the ground game has been an important part of New England’s success this season. Plus, Stevenson has previously played a part of New England’s pass attack, too.
Stevenson is capable of surpassing the mark on the ground alone, having rushed for 100 yards on 20 carries vs. Cleveland in Week 10 and managing 78 yards on 24 carries vs. Buffalo — a game where the Patriots were essentially expected to run on every play after a certain point. He also hit the over on this total in Week 9 vs. Carolina, finishing with 62 rushing yards and 44 receiving yards.
Only a handful of opposing running backs have gone over this number vs. the Colts this season, but most running backs who came up short were in split backfields. Sure, Brandon Bolden (questionable; knee) might get a few carries if he’s good to go. But if the Patriots rush the ball 30 times, 20 of those touches should go to Stevenson. Mix in a few receptions, and Stevenson cruises to 85-plus all-purpose yards, rushing and receiving.
The second Urban Meyer got the boot, Robinson’s value went up. The failed Jaguars ex-head coach wasn’t utilizing the back despite Trevor Lawrence wanting Robinson to get more work. More importantly, Jacksonville’s interim head coach, Darrell Bevell, told reporters, “James Robinson is our starting running back, and he will be used as such,” following Meyer’s dismissal. Yes, that detail is immeasurable, but Bevell is in a spot to prove himself, too. It’d be an odd look for him to say he’ll utilize his greatest asset only to limit Robinson’s work — that and Bevell would be setting Jacksonville up for further failure.
As for Houston’s part in this: outside of Week 11, the Texans have given up at least one rushing touchdown each week since Week 2. Of course, Houston saw Jacksonville in Week 1, so they’ve held Robinson scoreless before — but he only rushed the ball five times that game.
Miami’s tight end nearly went over this number in Week 13 vs. the Giants, who somehow aren’t the worst football team in New York. That honor instead belongs to the Jets, who are the worst defensive team in the league — be it against the pass or a ground attack. And Gesicki saw just how bad the Jets are; he accrued 50 yards on three receptions (six targets) in Week 10.
Gesicki’s performance vs. the Jets is one of seven times he’s logged at least 48 yards this season. In three of the instances Gesicki fell short of this week’s mark, he logged 41-46 yards. Also, Tua Tagovailoa was under center four of the seven times Gesicki logged 48-plus yards this season, including the latter’s 115- and 85-yard showings. And although only three other tight ends have gone over this yardage prop vs. the Jets in 2021, they give up 63.69 yards per game to the position on average.
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