clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 13

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 13 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Hello all you hooligans. Welcome to Week 13 is upon is and we’re going to chat about it. So let’s do that.

You have to follow me on Twitter or else you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.


Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Los Angeles Rams (-12.5; -720) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+500)

Betting trends:
Rams 2021 home record: 3-2
Rams 2021 home record when favored: 2-2
Rams 2021 ATS record: 4-7
Rams 2021 ATS record when favored: 3-7

Jaguars 2021 road record: 0-4
Jaguars 2021 road record as underdogs: 0-3
Jaguars 2021 ATS record: 4-7
Jaguars 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 4-6

Man, can you feel good about the Rams right now? It’s hard to do so, even against this Jaguars team. Trust me, this is NOT an endorsement to bet the Jaguars by any means, however, the Rams as the biggest favorite? Doesn’t sound like an appealing bet to me. The Rams come into this game having lost three in a row and have failed to cover in five straight. Three of those games the Rams were double-digit favorites. They did win two of those games outright but covering the spread has been a major issue lately.

News dropped Sunday morning that Matt Stafford ($7,300) is dealing with chronic back pain, a sore ankle and recurring elbow pain. Like, what the hell, man? He followed up the news by completing just 55.3% of his 38 pass attempts but they went for 302 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. 79 of those yards came on a beautiful Van Jefferson ($5,300) TD to help salvage his day. Aside from that, Stafford didn’t seem limited much otherwise. Now he’ll face a Jaguars defense that’s allowing one of the highest yards per pass attempt to opposing QB’s at 7.91. That bodes well for Stafford, who is fourth in the league in YPA himself at 8.3. Between Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr ($5,500) he has two real threats to stretch the field with and capitalize on the weakness. Beckham averaged 16.2 YPC last week, going 5/81/1 on 10 targets.

I don’t believe the Rams will drop their fourth-straight game against the Jaguars. Most of you don’t either. That said, I’m not prepared to bet this game at all. I cannot trust this Rams team to cover such a large spread, even against a weak team like the Jags. Two of the four games the Jags have covered the spread were when they were double-digit dogs. They closed at +14.5 to the Bills, who they beat outright (I still don’t understand) and +10.5 to the Colts, which they lost by six. This is a classic case of “bet on the better team” which is by far the Rams. Against the spread though, this is not a spot I feel comfortable on the favorite with the points.

Other notable favorites: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-575; -11) at Atlanta Falcons (+410)


Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Cincinnati Bengals (-3; -165) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+145) Over/Under: 50.5

Betting trends:
Chargers 2021 road record: 3-2
Chargers 2021 road record as underdogs: 2-1
Chargers 2021 Over/Under record: 4-7
Chargers 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 0-3

Bengals 2021 home record: 3-2
Bengals 2021 home record as favorites: 2-1
Bengals 2021 Over/Under record: 5-6
Bengals 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 3-3

Two teams that haven’t been particularly at hitting the over on the game total. These teams have combined to go 9-13 with the over with the Chargers being the team worse off. While the Bengals are under .500 with the over, they have covered four of their last five after starting off going 1-4. To help the case for the over, the Bengals come into this game averaging just under 30 points per game in their last three at 29.7. The Chargers are at 24.8 in their last three.

The biggest weakness in this game comes in the form of the Chargers run defense. It ranks as one of the worst in the league while also allowing the most rushing yards at 1336 or an average of 121 per game. The 4.6 YPC allowed is also one of the highest and will be an issue against a red hot Joe Mixon ($8,100). He’s gone for a massive 288 rushing yards on 58 carries (4.9 YPC) over his last two games. Despite both games being blowouts, Mixon has been getting his touches in finding massive success. That being said, the Bengals are one of the slower paced teams in the league, averaging 61.4 (24th) plays per game. For reference, the Ravens lead the league at 71.2. I think the value on this total has been after originally opening at at 48. Since then, it’s touched 51 and currently rests at the 50.5 total. If we can get this at 50 again, I’d be interested but think this total is trending in the wrong direction.


Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.



NFL Week 13 Betting Splits

These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Last Updated: Thursday, December 2nd, 11:00 a.m.


NFL Betting Trends

This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.

Teams Against the Spread:

Best Teams ATS

Team Record ATS +/-
Team Record ATS +/-
Dallas Cowboys 12-4 5.1
Green Bay Packers 12-4 1.3
New England Patriots 10-6 7.5
Tennessee Titans 10-6 3.6
Arizona Cardinals 10-6 2.4

Worst Teams ATS

Team Record ATS +/-
Team Record ATS +/-
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12 -7.6
Carolina Panthers 5-11 -2.8
Chicago Bears 6-10 -0.6
New York Jets 6-10 -4.3
New York Giants 6-10 -2.5

Teams Over/Under Records:

Best Team Over Records

Team Over Record Total +/-
Team Over Record Total +/-
New York Jets 10-6 4.4
Minnesota Vikings 10-6 1.4
Los Angeles Rams 8-7-1 -0.8
Buffalo Bills 8-8 -1.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8 0.4

Worst Team Over Records

Team Over Record Total +/-
Team Over Record Total +/-
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 -3.8
Seattle Seahawks 5-10-1 -3.3
New York Giants 5-10-1 -4.5
Atlanta Falcons 6-10 -2.1
New Orleans Saints 6-10 -2.8

Target Report

Target Report

Player Team Week 13 Opponent Avg. TPG Avg YPT
Player Team Week 13 Opponent Avg. TPG Avg YPT
Cooper Kupp LAR MIN 11.7 9.9
Diontae Johnson PIT KC 10.4 7.6
Tyreek Hill KC PIT 10.3 8.2
Keenan Allen LAC HOU 10.3 7.5
Justin Jefferson MIN LAR 9.8 9.7
DJ Moore CAR TB 9.5 7.4
Marquise Brown BAL CIN 9.3 7.5
Stefon Diggs BUF NE 9.1 7.9
Travis Kelce KC PIT 8.7 8.7
Mark Andrews BAL CIN 8.7 8.7

Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, $6,500 — We have a lot of solid options on the board this week at quarterback. However, I’m going a bit rouge and rolling with Cousins against the Lions. Per the usual, his ownership will lie in the singe digits despite the good matchup. The Lions allow the largest yards per pass attempt in the league at 8.2 and have given up an average of 255 passing yards. The Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook as well, so we could see Cousins passing more, even with him averaging over 37 attempts per game. With him being relatively inexpensive all season long, Cousins as gone 4X or better in five of his 11 games this season. Against this defense as -7 favorites, we could easily see that happen once again.


Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, $8,200 — When you think about teams going down the field deep against the Lions, that fits the mold perfectly for Jefferson. We saw him stretch the field already against the Lions, going 7/124/0 for 22.4 DKFP back in Week 5. He’ll line up the most against CB Amani Oruwariye, who has been targeted against 47 times allowing 31 receptions (66%) and 14 YPR. The majority of the damage done by Jefferson back in Week 5 was against Oruwariye, who allowed five of those catches for 101 yards and an average of 20.2 YPR. I would not be surprised if Jefferson is also a low owned play this week, as plenty of attention will be on Cooper Kupp ($9,000) against the Jaguars.


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat. (CT).

21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.