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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 16

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Week 16. As Wu-Tang said, C.R.E.A.M. So the theme of this week is to make sure we figure out each team’s schemes, not become the new internet meme and win in the parlance of Charlie Sheen so that our screens emanate nothing but green. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are no games with a total of at least 50 points. The NYG/PHI game has a lowly total of 40.5 with the Eagles favored by 10 points. There are two double-digit favorites — PHI -10 over NYG and TB -10.5 over CAR. There is one favorite of at least nine points - LAC -9 over HOU.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


Quarterback

Stud

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans, $7,200 — The Texans are 27th in rush defense DVOA, so there’s risk that the Chargers just ground and pound. DraftKings Sportsbook has Los Angeles favored by nine points. That said, Austin Ekeler is unlikely to play and the Chargers are seventh in pass rate, so if the running game takes over it will likely be because Herbert has put the game out of reach. He’s scored at least 20 DKFP in nine games with four above 30 and a high of 45.82. In games that the Chargers have won by over 10 points, Herbert has attempted 31, 35 and 38 passes, producing 24.9, 29.28 and 21.28 DKFP.

Other Option – Matthew Stafford ($6,700)

Value

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens, $5,900 — The Ravens are fifth in rush defense DVOA and 29th in pass-defense DVOA, so the path of least resistance is illuminated like the lights on an airport runway. Before the Ravens' bye week, they allowed four quarterbacks to throw for over 340 yards with two over 400. After the bye, no quarterback has thrown for over 300 yards, so improvement has been made. That said, some of that was due to the quality of opponents as they faced the Browns, Steelers, Bears, Dolphins and Vikings. Aaron Rodgers went 23-of-31 for 268 yards and three touchdowns last week. Burrow lit up this defense for 409 yards back in Week 7. This will be the second game between the division rivals, so an expectation of that kind of output is unlikely, but the Bengals should tilt towards the pass and the Ravens' secondary is still exploitable.

Other Options – Justin Fields ($5,200), Zach Wilson ($5,300)


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Running Back

Stud

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets, $5,900 — I lean toward fading Dalvin Cook ($8,300) and Najee Harris ($7,400) this week. Both are expensive and the chances for “scores that make me close the laptop” are decreased. Much will depend on projected ownership. In game one of the post-Urban Meyer era, Robinson was a true bell cow, playing in 84% of the snaps, carrying 18 times for 75 yards and a touchdown, receiving six targets in the passing game and getting four red-zone carries. Now, he gets a matchup against a Jets team that is dead-last in rush defense DVOA and has allowed the most red-zone touches to opposing running backs.

Other Options – Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,700), Najee Harris ($7,400)

Value

Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans, $4,200 – Austin Ekeler hasn’t officially been ruled out yet, but all indications point to him being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. If Ekeler is out, then Jackson will likely be the main guy for the Chargers. Last week, he played in 54% of the snaps, while Joshua Kelley only got 16%. The Texans are 27th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed the third-most red-zone touches to opposing running backs.

Other Options – Ronald Jones II ($5,100), Jordan Howard ($4,300)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams @ Minnesota Vikings, $9,100 — This is beyond ridiculous at this point. This season is akin to the Randy Moss season of 2007. You knew Moss was going to get the targets and score two touchdowns. And he did on most weeks. Kupp leads the league with 164 targets. He won’t surpass Marvin Harrison’s 205 back in 2002 but it’s still impressive nonetheless. Kupp has at least 10 targets in every game, with the lone outlier being a nine-target game. Despite the high price tag for most of the season, he’s exceeded point expectations 70% of the time. He’s scored at least 25 DKFP in 10 games this season with six above 30 and a high of 40.6. This was a long-winded way of saying: Just play him and figure out the rest.

Other Options – Ja’Marr Chase ($7,100), DK Metcalf ($6,400)

Value

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons, $5,600 – Over the last three weeks, St. Brown has received 11, 12 and 12 targets. He’s converted those into eight, eight and 10 catches for 90, 73 and 86 yards with two touchdowns. Now he gets a Falcons team that is 30th in pass-defense DVOA.

Other Options – Russell Gage ($5,900), Darnell Mooney ($5,400), Courtland Sutton ($4,200), Allen Robinson ($4,000)


Tight End

Stud

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals, $7,000 – Whether Lamar Jackson ($6,900) or Tyler Huntley ($6,000) plays, it doesn’t matter for Andrews as he’s had success with both quarterbacks. Over the last seven games, he’s received at least eight targets in all of those contests with five in double digits. In the two most recent games, he’s gone for 31.5 and 38.6 DKFP. Another 30-burger isn’t a likely outcome but double-digit targets with chances to score should be expected.

Other Options – Dallas Goedert ($5,100), Kyle Pitts ($5,800)

Value

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks, $3,300 – I kind of like the Bears’ passing attack this week. Father, forgive me for I have sinned. This game could be a low-scoring slugfest as both coaches would prefer to ground and pound, but there’s a small chance more points are scored than expected, especially since both teams have porous pass defenses. Seattle has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the tight end position. Kmet has nine games with at least five targets and over the last four games, he’s received nine, five, seven and 11. He hasn’t scored yet on the season but has received 10 red-zone targets. He’s due!

Other Option – C.J. Uzomah ($3,000)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST @ Carolina Panthers, $4,100 – The Buccaneers blitz at the highest rate in the league. Cam Newton ($5,600) has had difficulties against teams that blitz. Against Miami three weeks ago, Newton went 5-of-21 for 92 yards with two interceptions. Miami blitzes at the second-highest rate. The Bucs are fifth in pass-defense DVOA and 12th in rush defense. They are seventh in adjusted sack rate.

Other Options – Philadelphia Eagles DST ($3,600), Kansas City Chiefs DST ($3,500), Los Angeles Rams ($3,100)

Value

Las Vegas Raiders DST vs. Denver Broncos, $2,900 – Drew. Lock.

Other Option – Carolina Panthers ($2,300)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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