All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Obviously, betting any sport right now is a moving target, making things really tough. It’s impossible to have any confidence in betting a side until minutes before tipoff. You don’t want to invest money in a side early and wind up on the wrong side of COVID news. Of course, on the flip side if you’re quick enough and can get the right side of a game before it goes off the board you take advantage of it. For the time being, the player prop market seems to be the safest and sharpest market.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
For the most part I’ll be looking for late breaking injury/COVID news that gives us a prop to pounce on, but there are a few props that jump out to me in the early going.
I backed Williams on his points/rebounds/assists on Friday night and he cashed us the over on 17.5. It was a similar situation, with Al Horford out for Boston, and the matchup against a team without much size. Now the Cavs have two very talented young bigs in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but both are out for this game. I’d expect the Time Lord to be able to clean the glass in this matchup, without much competition on the Cavs, or competition for minutes on his own team. If you want better plus-money on Williams getting to 10+ boards and think he’ll be able to score in double-figures (his point prop is set at 10.5), you can get a +240 price on a double-double.
We backed Haliburton on his points over on Monday, and he easily came through for us. Haliburton scored 24 points in that contest, but also had a much more obtainable prop at 14.5 with -125 juice to the over. Adjustments have obviously been made. That said, I’m not sure the adjustments are enough, and we also get even money this time.
It’s the same analysis as Monday — De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell are both out, which leads to Haliburton playing heavy minutes and dominating the ball. I mentioned the 24 points on Monday, which came on 18 shot attempts in 41 minutes. In the previous two games without Fox and Mitchell, Haliburton finished with 28 points in 37 minutes on Sunday and 21 points in 38 minutes on Friday. It seems safe to assume Haliburton will operate in the same role in this matchup. Haliburton has finished with a double-double with assists in all three games, which you can also back at +160. His assist prop is -120 to the over on 8.5.
Hawks Point Props — OTB at time of publishing
These props aren’t on the board yet, but I expect they’ll show up before tip. The Hawks haven’t played in five days, and the last time they did, Trae Young (27.3 PPG), Clint Capela (11.5 PPG), Danilo Gallinari (9.6 PPG) and Lou Williams (6.6 PPG) were all on the floor. All of those players are out. Given the circumstances, I’m fine playing an inflated over on a point prop for someone like John Collins, Kevin Huerter or Cam Reddish, especially in a soft matchup against Orlando. Will update later if we get numbers.
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