Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to focus purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be low-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
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Stacks
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams
Kirk Cousins ($6,200) — Sony Michel ($5,500) — Justin Jefferson ($8,100)
It’s late in the year and we don’t have many games with big totals on the slate, but one matchup that does look tasty for fantasy purposes is the Vikings vs. Rams. An over/under of 48.0 is attached here, and both teams have averaged over 25.0 points per game. Kirk Cousins may not be an elite quarterback (no matter what @reidtfowler says), but he does pop up for some decent fantasy performances every now and then and faces a Rams defense who is nearly impossible to run against.
The Rams have allowed four 300 yard passers this season, and teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against L.A. (sixth-highest). Cousins is coming off a couple of slow games—where he wasn’t needed to do much—so sentiment and ownership should be low. He and stud wide receiver, Justin Jefferson, have already combined for over 50.0 DKFP on three different occasions this year, and Cousins’ red zone statistics—23 touchdowns and zero INTs—are some of the best in the league. Some may shy away from Jefferson due to the matchup with Jalen Ramsey, but Jefferson himself is a top-three ranked receiver on Pro Football Focus and may come in with one-third of the ownership of Cooper Kupp ($9,100).
If you use Cousins over Stafford, then the savings means you could play a stack with both big play wideouts. However, fading the almost certainly popular Kupp—who may even push for the most owned player on the slate—means we can pivot to the Rams rush game and Sony Michel. The Vikings have the third-worst yards per rush against this season and have allowed four games of 80 or more yards and a touchdown to opposing running backs. Michel took over 70% of the snaps last week and averaged 5.1 yards per carry, pushing Darrell Henderson to a change of pace role. Expect to see more of Michel in Week 16, and against a weaker rush defense, the touchdowns could easily flow back his way and leave Kupp owners holding the bag (for possibly the first time this season). Michel makes for a great pivot play if you’re interested in stacking this game, which has plenty of great targets for DFS in Week 16.
Just Missed: Joe Burrow ($5.900) — Ja’Marr Chase ($7,200) — Mark Andrews ($7,000)
Quarterback
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks ($5,200)
The Seahawks have cratered this year to the point where they’ve become one of the best matchups on the board for opposing offensive players. Quarterbacks are averaging 7.6 yards per attempt against Seattle over their last three games, which is the third-worst mark in the league. Justin Fields has looked more comfortable in the pocket of late and had one of his best passing days of the year last week against Minnesota when he passed for 285 yards and averaged 7.3 yards per attempt.
Fields’ proficiency on deep balls is a huge added bonus because he’s already developed into an elite rushing quarterback. The rookie is now averaging 56 yards on the ground over his last five games—and also has averaged 18.43 DKFP over his last five starts despite a 4.43 performance against the Ravens. Fields’ upside is what we should be focused on and he’s now gone over 21 DKFP in two of his last five outings. He has been limited in practice this week (ankle), so watch the injury reports, but Fields makes for a great naked option at quarterback where his rushing prowess and cheap salary offer great flexibility for roster construction.
Just Missed: Lamar Jackson ($6,900)
Running Back
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,800)
The Chiefs locker room has been hit with a bout of COVID-19 this week and that’s left questionable tags on the likes of Travis Kelce ($7,300) and Tyreek Hill ($8,400). Even if those two do end up playing, the matchup and lack of practice for the team’s top passing game options should make this a higher volume spot for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs running back has lost some snaps to Darrell Williams of late, but he has still brought in multiple receptions in each of his last four games, while finding the end zone three times in that same span.
The matchup is in Edwards-Helaire’s favor. The Chiefs face a Steelers defense who features a vaunted pass rush but is terrible at defending against the run. Pittsburgh has allowed 4.9 yards per carry (worst in the league) and 5.3 ypc against over their last three games. The Chiefs should be looking to establish the run this week and neutralize the Steelers best element, which is their pass rush. With COVID issues affecting the Chiefs’ best receivers, look for Edwards-Helaire to break out in Week 16 in what is most certainly a juicy fantasy matchup with Pittsburgh.
Just Missed: D’Andre Swift ($6,300)
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears ($6,700)
Much like Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Tyler Lockett and Russell Wilson work much better when they’re together than apart. The Seahawks leading wideout is due back this week (reserve/COVID-19 list) and it’s just in time for a pristine matchup against a failing Chicago secondary. The Bears young defensive backs have been outmatched all season and have allowed the most touchdowns to the wide receiver position.
Lockett comes into this game averaging 17.5 yards per catch over his last two starts and is almost certainly going to get the bulk of the targets in this game—DK Metcalf has been inexplicably ineffective since Russell Wilson has returned to quarterback. Lockett isn't projecting to have high ownership at the moment, but has averaged 25.0 DKFP over his last two starts and faces a Bears defense that loves handing out big games to opposing top wideouts. Lockett is a great big field GPP target in Week 16.
Just Missed: DJ Moore ($5,700)
Tight End
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants ($5,100)
There’s been a clear shift in usage for Goedert over his last two starts. The tight end has seen a team-high 15 targets in his last two games (which leads the team by six over that span). The Eagles don’t pass the ball a ton, but they also don’t have dominate wideouts either, which makes Goedert’s after-the-catch ability something they should continue to exploit. The tight end—who just signed a new deal with Philly last week—is averaging 18.0 yards per catch in his last two games and faces a Giants team who has allowed the fourth-most receptions to the tight end position this season.
The only fear with Goedert is that the Eagles don’t have to pass much to win this game. However, with how efficient Jalen Hurts ($6,400) and Goedert have been of late, I’d look for another big game from them here, before all is said and done. Goedert’s a great pay-up option for Week 16, and a player who looks to finally be developing into an elite pass catching tight end.
Just Missed: Zach Gentry ($2,800)
Defense/Special Teams
Cincinnati Bengals ($2,800) vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals arrive in Week 16 with the slimmest of leads in the AFC North and as -3.5 home favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Cincinnati handled the Ravens easily on the road in their first meeting and now face a Ravens team who is decimated with injury issues on both sides of the ball. Lamar Jackson ($6,900; ankle) may start in this game but that could be solid news for this DST unit, as backup Tyler Huntly ($6,000) has been more proficient as a passer in his last two starts than Lamar has been all season.
If Jackson can’t run the ball with his usual ferocity, then the Bengals defense could really get off here. They head into this game with one of the league’s better pass rushes (averaging 3.8 sacks over their last four games). The respect most DFS players have for Jackson means that the Bengals DST isn’t likely to be highly rostered. However, Jackson has thrown for just five TDs and completed 60% of his passes on the road this year, and if he plays, he won’t be 100% for this game. Look to the Bengals DST for a sub-3k play in Week 16 that carries plenty of upside.
Just missed: Broncos ($2,800)
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