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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 13 Top High-Upside DFS Targets, Sleepers

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be low-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]


Stacks

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

Justin Herbert ($7,200) — Joe Mixon ($7,200) — Keenan Allen ($7,500)

The Chargers passing offense has been fertile ground for fantasy purposes over the last month. Los Angeles has thrown the ball 39.9 times per game this year and quarterback Justin Herbert has proven his ceiling is as high as anyone’s at the position, with four games of 30 DKFP or more. Herbert has also increased his efficiency as a rusher in 2021 and has now averaged five rushes and just over 40 yards rushing per game over his last four starts. He faces a Bengals defense that has allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt over the last three games (second worst in the league).

Stacking Herbert for fantasy purposes isn’t a tough prospect either. While we have random, cheap targets like Jared Cook ($3,100) and Donald Parham Jr. ($2,800) to throw in at tight end, wideout Keenan Allen is the true must play here. The veteran has averaged 11 targets over his last four games and crushed the century mark in yardage in two of those. As mentioned above, the Bengals defense has been regressing of late against the pass and have allowed some monster games to similar high usage wideouts like Davante Adams (206 yards and a TD) and Adam Thielen (92 yards and 2 TDs). Allen seems destined for another big reception total—in a game with good shootout potential—and has a great shot at some serious positive regression in the touchdown department as well.

The Bengals offense has scored 73 points over their last two games, so we could even consider stacking two of their offensive pieces with our Chargers stack. Tee Higgins ($5,800) remains cheap and could build on his big Week 12, but there’s little doubt that the best matchup in Week 13 is for running back Joe Mixon. The Chargers have allowed 4.7 yards per carry (third worst in the league) and been one of the worst rush defenses in the league all season. Mixon has seen an absurd 58 carries the last two games (averaging 4.96 ypc) and the Bengals aren’t in a spot to rest him given how tight the AFC North is. He’s a great way to cap off this expensive, but high-volume trio who have all posted slate-breaking games at multiple points this year.

Just Missed: Kirk Cousins ($6,500) — Justin Jefferson ($8,200) — Jamaal Williams ($5,400)


Quarterback

Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts ($5,300)

Tyrod Taylor hasn’t looked great as a passer since coming back from injury, but a lot of his recent output has been game flow related. The Texans played a close game last week and actually took the lead against the Titans from the start. He’s yet to get in any great garbage time scenarios against a weak passing defense. That could change this week with the Colts on the slate, who are fresh off allowing Tampa Bay to score 38 points.

The Colts actually held Tom Brady to 226 yards, which is impressive, but have allowed the fifth-most passing yards against and the most passing touchdowns this season. The Colts regressing against the run isn’t a bad thing either, as Taylor has been looking healthier since the bye and has averaged 29 yards rushing in his last two starts, and averaged 15 yards per carry in Week 12. The Texans are nearly double-digit underdogs at +9.5 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, so Taylor should be able to rack up more garbage throws and rush attempts this week, making him a very viable big field target at quarterback.

Just Missed: Russell Wilson ($6,500)


Running Back

Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders ($5,700)

There’s some injuries at running back in Week 13 which will make players like Jamaal Williams ($5,400) and Alexander Mattison ($7,600) popular targets. One running back who doesn’t seem to be getting as much heat in this same range—but also may see a huge bump in usage due to injury—is Antonio Gibson. Gibson is coming off a career high 36-touch game where he went for 111 yards rushing and caught seven of seven targets.

Gibson’s big game was precipitated last week by an injury to JD McKissic, who has yet to practice this week, and seems highly likely to miss Week 13. Washington ranks sixth in rush attempts per game, while teams playing the Raiders have averaged 28.6 rush attempts per game—the seventh-highest mark in the league. Gibson hasn’t been super efficient as a rusher, but he is in a spot to potentially push for 30 or more touches again. Despite the great spot, it’s still possible he doesn't even end up as a top-five owned back this week, making him a great mid-range value play in bigger fields.

Just Missed: Miles Sanders ($5,000)


Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,700)

The Seahawks DK Metcalf has posted three games with 90 yards and at least one touchdown in 2021 and had six games with such metrics in 2020. This is just a reminder that Metcalf is an elite fantasy producer, but is simply playing in a lower volume passing offense (with an uncreative head coach), which will stifle his production from time to time. The last two games haven’t been pretty for Metcalf or his quarterback Russell Wilson ($6,500), but with sentiment now at rock bottom on these two, we at least know the ownership in Week 13 will be extremely low.

Metcalf has also found some good success against the 49ers defense in his first three years in the league, a run which includes four touchdowns in five career matchups—and a 12 reception, 161 yard and two touchdown day from last year. San Francisco has performed well against the pass of late, but a lot of that has been game flow induced and they don't have great athletes in the secondary, which has led to big games from opposing wide receivers at times—including last week when Adam Thielen scored twice. Metcalf is the epitome of boom or bust right now, but with the field likely forgetting how good the good weeks can be with DK, now is the time to pounce back on the stud wideout in a better than advertised matchup.

Just Missed: Chase Claypool ($6,000)


Tight End

James O’Shaughnessy, Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams ($2,600)

The Jaguars lost Dan Arnold to IR last week and enter Week 13 as +12.5 underdogs against the Rams. Los Angeles has been very beatable against the pass this year, although Jacksonville’s lack of élite wideouts may make throwing to the outside an issue. Jacksonville has also made a habit of throwing to their tight end all year (no matter who was starting). Eight times already a Jacksonville tight end has ended the game with five or more targets and O’Shaughnessy was the clear benefactor of the Arnold injury as he ended last week with five targets and having played on 81% of the snaps.

There’s multiple cheap tight ends in play this week as both Zach Gentry ($2,900) and Foster Moreau ($2,700) are under $3,000 and will also likely be filling in for injured starters. However, with Jacksonville’s matchup and the likelihood they are throwing late into this game against prevent defense, O’Shaughnessy could make a push for eight or more targets and won’t be highly owned—since he’s a Jaguar. He makes for a great punt option on a week filled with intriguing injury substitutes at the position.

Just Missed: Foster Moreau ($2,700)


Defense/Special Teams

Miami Dolphins ($3,300) vs. New York Giants

The Miami Dolphins defense has been one of the best units in football over the last month. Miami has now racked up 16 sacks over their last four games and 10 turnovers. They rank seventh in turnovers, one year after leading the league in that mark in 2020. The Dolphins DST have also been world beaters at home this season, where they’ve averaged 11.2 DKFP per game, compared to just 3.8 on the road.

They’ll face a Giants team in Week 13 who ranks in the bottom 10 in rush attempts and rush yards per game, and the Dolphins will be facing stone-footed journeyman Mike Glennon ($4,000). Miami may cost a bit and may end up as a top-three owned team in GPPs, but this isn’t a unit you want to fade right now. Paying up should bring piece of mind at a very volatile position in Week 13.

Just missed: Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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