Here are my top five NFL QB-WR stacks for the main DraftKings fantasy football slate this week. Let’s get to it.
The concept behind stacking a QB with his WR is simple: both players benefit from each completion, doubling the benefit of that play for your DraftKings fantasy football lineup. With the significance of stacking in mind, this article aims to highlight the best stacking options for Sunday’s main DraftKings DFS slate.
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5. Jared Goff ($5,400)/Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,000), Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Goff may not know where the sun rises or sets, and he’s been gross for fantasy much of the season, having scored fewer than 10 DKFP in five games, but he’s gone over 20 DKFP in two of the last four games he’s played. He missed last week, so he may be completely out of the consciousness of many. The Seahawks are 28th in pass-defense DVOA and the DraftKings Sportsbook has the Lions as seven-point underdogs, so the game script should lead towards the air. He’s attempted at least 35 passes in seven games this season and exceeded point expectations 50% of the time.
St. Brown has been en fuego the last four weeks, garnering 12, 12, 11 and 11 targets. He’s scored three touchdowns over that span and caught eight, eight, 10 and nine passes while hauling in at least 70 yards in each game with at least 90 yards in the two most recent contests.
4. Tom Brady ($7,600)/Antonio Brown ($6,100), Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets
The Jets are dead-last in pass-defense DVOA and 29th in rush defense, so the Bucs should be able to attack in any manner they want, which could be a bad thing for Brady because the run game could take precedence. In addition, the Jets offense likely won’t push the Bucs to be aggressive. That said, Tampa Bay is still implied for 28.75 points according to the DraftKings Sportsbook.
For much of the season, the Bucs have kept the pedal to the metal and swept the leg of opposing defenses. Last week, though, they coasted to a 32-6 victory in which Brady only threw 30 times. That is well within the range of outcomes here, but Brady went for 24.44 and 40.74 DKFP in two earlier games in which the Bucs won 38-3 and 45-17. They could use this as a glorified practice session, and if the projected ownership is low, which I think it will be, Brady could be interesting.
Unfortunately, Brown will likely be one of higher rostered players this week, but I don’t think many will utilize this stack. Brown is just too cheap for his role and matchup. With Godwin and Evans out, Brown caught 10 of 15 targets for 101 yards last week, in a game that Brady only threw 30 times. My handy abacus tells me that’s a 50% target share!
3. Justin Herbert ($6,800)/Keenan Allen ($7,500), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Over the last six games, Herbert has produced 21.94, 24.04, 24.9, 29.28, 24.72 and 38.28 DKFP. He’s attempted 35, 38, 31, 35, 44 and 41 passes. The Chargers are sixth in pass rate on the season and the last time these two teams met back in Week 12, Herbert went 28-of-44 for 303 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. That was good for 24.72 DKFP.
I usually don’t like going to Keenan Allen because he’s so volume dependent and the ceiling is low compared to others in the price range. He only has four games with at least 20 DKFP and hasn’t eclipsed the 30-point barrier. That said, he’s contributed double-digit DKFP in every game but one and he’s received at least 10 targets in nine games.
2. Patrick Mahomes ($7,800)/Tyreek Hill ($8,300), Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
This game has the highest total on the slate at 51, according to the DraftKings Sportsbook. And with the Bengals’ offensive explosion last week, many could overrate this game a tad. If given the choice, the Bengals would like to play slow and run the ball. They are 29th in offensive pace and 20th in pass rate. It just happened to be, that the path of least resistance last week was through the air. This week, the path is on the ground as the Chiefs are 21st in rush defense DVOA and 13th pass defense. So, the ceiling and chance of a bonkers game is lowered but points should still be scored.
The Bengals are seventh in rush defense DVOA and 22nd in pass defense while the Chiefs are seventh in pass rate so one plus one equals two. While Mahomes has had five games with fewer than 20 DKFP on the season, he’s gone for at least 30 in four contests. He’s attempted 30, 47 and 24 passes the last three weeks but two of those games were blowouts. He still put up over 20 DKFP in all of those contests.
The receiver I like the most is Travis Kelce ($7,300) as the Bengals have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends, but the Chiefs’ passing game is so concentrated that Hill is right there. Over the last four games, though, Hill has received two, 13, four and five targets. Yuck. That should lower the ownership as there are more bankable volume options in the same price tier. When Hill goes boom, though, he goes BOOM! He has games of 35.8, 40.1 and 50.6 DKFP on the season.
1. Matthew Stafford ($7,100)/Cooper Kupp ($9,500), Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens
Stafford is coming off two games in which he scored 9.68 and 16.46 DKFP, so the projected ownership should be low due to recency bias. The Rams are 12th in pass rate on the season and the Ravens are seventh in rush defense DVOA, so the path of least resistance fits with the Rams’ identity. Baltimore is also 29th in pass defense DVOA, and while they blitz at the fifth-highest rate, they are only 26th in adjusted sack rate. PFF has the Rams rated number one in pass blocking and 11th in pass offense. The Bengals just eviscerated this Ravens pass defense for 525 yards and four touchdowns.
Kupp is expensive, so there’s merit to fading him. In addition, the Rams have two cheaper options in Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,700) and Van Jefferson ($5,300) who are viable. Kupp would need to score in the high-30s to 40s to make you regret not playing him. He’s achieved that five times this season, so decisions will need to be made. Kupp leads the league in targets and has only one game without 10, and he received nine in that contest. The floor/ceiling combo is the best on the slate, which is why he’s priced at this level. It all comes down to roster construction and projected ownership. Choose wisely.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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