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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Pistons vs. Nuggets Showdown on February 1

Stan Son gives his top NBA lineup advice for Monday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Pistons and Nuggets, which starts at 9 p.m. ET.

Utah Jazz v Denver Nuggets Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

There are many similarities between these two teams: names start with De, play at a slow pace, are generous on the defensive side of the ball, and have dominant big men. Mason Plumlee! I kid. DK Sportsbook has the home Nuggets favored by 8.5 points with the O/U at 217.5.

Let’s break down everything to play a few Showdown lineups.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (DET vs DEN)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Nikola Jokic ($19,200 CP) - The English alphabet starts with A. The number count starts at 0. The day starts with breakfast. Your showdown lineup should start with Jokic. The price is high at $19,200, but you get what you pay for. The floor, ceiling and raw points are just unmatched in this game.

On the season, Jokic is averaging a ridiculous 1.62 DKFP per minute and 35.8 minutes per game. He’s coming off a 77.5 DKFP game against the Jazz and has gone for at least 70 DKFP five times this season. He’s scored at least 60 DKFP another seven times. His lowest output was a 42.75 DKFP performance against the Heat.

To make matters better, or worse depending upon your perspective, the Pistons are third-most generous to opposing centers as they boost the fantasy points per minute by 12.15% above league average.

Josh Jackson ($8,400 CP) - For a contrarian/cheaper option, Jackson is my guy. It’s no slam dunk like Jokic above because the minutes and production are both volatile. He could play 24 minutes or 17. He could shoot 20% from the field and score three points or convert 50% for 20 points. The one thing I am confident about, though, is that when’s he out on the floor, he’s going to huck and chuck.

As a starter, Jackson garners a usage rate of 28% and averages 11.8 shots per game. Off the bench, the usage rate is 22.6% and he’s hoisting up 8.8 shots a game in 22.8 minutes.

He is coming off a 30-DKFP game so he can access ceiling. Now, Jerami Grant or Delon Wright has a better shot at scoring 30 DKFP, but they cost $6,000 and $3,000 more, respectively.

The ownership should be low in the captain spot, and for good reason, but if he has a 6-for-11 shooting night with some rebounds and defensive stats then that could put you way above the field. The downside? Hades and tears.


FLEX Plays

Facundo Campazzo ($2,400) - When the Nuggets are healthy, Campazzo plays around 10-12 minutes per game. In their last game, though, Gary Harris suffered an injury and only played nine minutes while PJ Dozier was also ruled out. As a result, Monte Morris slid into his spot while Campazzo slid up the depth chart and played 19 minutes. He ended the night with 11 points and five assists, good for 21.5 DKFP. Both Dozier is questionable and Harris has been ruled out for this one, so Campazzo could see an uptick in playing time. On the season, Campazzo is averaging 0.72 DKFP per minute.

Monte Morris ($4,000) - Well, if Campazzo benefits from injuries, then it’s only logical that Morris would as well. Whether he starts or not if Harris misses is another question. Coach Malone could slide Will Barton up and move Michael Porter Jr. into the starting lineup. Regardless, Morris should see an uptick in playing time regardless. On the season, Morris is averaging 0.81 DKFP per minute.

Delon Wright ($7,600) - There is not too much wrong with Wright. I’ll see myself out now. Wright will score some points, grab some rebounds, dish out some assists, drain a 3-pointer, grab a steal and get a block. Basically, he contributes a little something in every category, which provides a relatively safe floor. The usage rate isn’t high at 15% and the shot attempts are low (seven per game) so points and ceiling games are tough to come by. With that said, he did pop off for 28 points and 56.75 DKFP a week ago, so it’s within the range of outcomes. Just don’t expect it on the regular.

Wright is averaging 0.93 DKFP per minute and 29.3 minutes in the past 13 games he’s started. The matchup is also a good one as the Nuggets boost the fantasy points per minute to point guards by 6.09% above league average.


Fades

Jerami Grant ($9,600) - Grant has exceeded everyone’s expectations this season, succeeding in his alpha role with the Pistons and averaging 1.11 DKFP per minute while playing 35.7 minutes per game. So why the fade?

For starters, he’s the second-highest priced player on the slate, right behind Jokic. He has also slowed down as of late. Just a few weeks ago, he was garnering a usage rate of 29% while shooting 19 times a game. Over the past four games, the usage rate has dipped to the 22-23% range while the shot attempts have been 8, 14, 13 and 13.

While Denver isn’t a particularly good defensive team, they do negate the fantasy points per minute to small forwards by 6.29% below the league average.


THE OUTCOME

While both teams play deliberate basketball and aren’t particularly good at defense, the Nuggets are a far superior offensive team. They are fourth in offensive efficiency while the Pistons are 25th. I foresee a laugher in this one, which is appropriate because the Joker will likely lead the way.

Final Score: Nuggets 110, Pistons 98

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (DET vs DEN)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.


All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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