The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am starts on Thursday, which means we need DraftKings pivot plays today. The course horses like Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Kevin Streelman have bubbled-up the projected roster board, which means you may have to look elsewhere to differentiate your DraftKings lineups this week.
This article will look at the projected chalk and pivot in each significant salary range when entering lineups in DraftKings GPPs. Here are the pivots we should be considering on DraftKings this week.
Projected Popular Golfer: Francesco Molinari ($9,300)
Pivot: Rickie Fowler ($9,200)
Molinari comes into this week flying high off a couple of solid starts. The Italian’s solid play has been noticed though and his odds this week on DraftKings Sportsbook have now been pushed down all the way to +2200, in part thanks to Dustin Johnson withdrawing from the event. We have a couple of players in this range for DFS who are also gaining attention with Jason Day ($9,500) and Jordan Spieth ($9,700), and their course history at Pebble makes them almost auto targets here. Molinari is cheaper than both though and he ranks 6th in both SG: Tee to Green play and around the green play, so he’s getting plenty hyped up as Pebble really does make for a great fit for him. A T16 finish here in 2019 will certainly not help deter people from using him.
Despite all that, poor weather and a rotational dual course setup means wave advantages could be had and there’s some merit in finding who the truly low owned players are above $9K and targeting them this week. This week, that player seems almost certain to be Rickie Fowler. Despite displaying some improved ball-striking in 2021, Fowler comes in devoid of any recent Pebble Beach course history (outside of the 2019 U.S. Open where he finished T43) and off the back of a terrible missed cut at the WMPO where he let down the DFS community, who were likely on their last straw with him there as it was. As mentioned previously though, Fowler has struck the ball better lately, and in poor conditions, that’s not something entirely to ignore. Considering the lack of pivot options up top, Rickie makes for a solid GPP play by default as lower ownership should be coveted here given the wacky weather we could see in play this week.
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For PGA TOUR scores and odds, click here.
$8,000 to $9,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Matt Jones ($8,100)
Pivot: Alex Noren ($8,300)
Jones is starting to gain some heat this week in circles due to his solid recent form and solid course history at Pebble. Over his last eight starts, Jones hasn’t missed a cut and is also now averaging 70.1 DKFP per start over his last 10 events. That kind of consistency is coveted anywhere, but especially here at Pebble Beach where players can eject in a hurry if something in their game is even a little off. Giving Jones even more popularity will be his course history which has him posting finishes of T11 or better here in three of the past six seasons—including a T5 finish here in 2020.
Jones is a solid play, but at high ownership fading him and seeing if his putter comes back down to earth here isn’t the worst idea. Alex Noren is a very similar type of player who likely won’t garner as much ownership but certainly has the type of game to grind out a big week. The Swede ranks top-15 in SG: Putting and Around the Green stats over the last 50 rounds and gained +4.2 strokes ATG at Pebble last season on his way to a T32. He also opened with a 64 two weeks ago at Torrey Pines and has shown aptitude for these Poa greens since coming on the PGA TOUR a few years ago from Europe. Noren’s a solid fit for this course and possibly an even better one this season given the weather in play and his record in tough events overseas.
$7,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Joel Dahmen ($7,400)
Pivot: Branden Grace ($7,200)
Dahmen does look too cheap at under $7.5K given how weak a field we have here. The American has had a dreadful start to the 2021 season but it doesn’t look like that is going to stop DFS players from rostering him as chatter this week has centered around his Pebble Beach record which includes a T14 from last year, when he gained +5.1 strokes ball-striking. Dahmen’s shown us his upside is really good in these weaker field spots so I get why people are flocking to him.
I do like Kyle Stanley ($7,400) in this range, who is striking the ball extremely well right now, but the true pivot here could be a European Tour player in Branden Grace. Grace has won before on the PGA TOUR at another seaside venue in Harbour Town and will be playing this event for the fourth time in his career, posting T22, T28 and a MC here in three starts. He showed some form towards the end of last season and has the kind of short game and grind it out mentality that will play well if the wind picks up. Most importantly, Grace won’t garner much ownership and could even stay under 5% owned in spots, the kind of numbers we’ll happily take given how big a factor the weather may play here.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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